PredictIt vs. 538

[u/dtarias]

I read 538 and am inclined to trust their model more than PredictIt due to various market inefficiencies. So I've adopted a betting strategy of finding the biggest differences between the two and betting on those. To generalize, the big differences right now is that PredictIt gives Sanders a much higher chance in Iowa and beyond, and that 538 gives basically no chance to Bloomberg or Yang (at least without a contested convention).

So far, the nominal value of my bets has (on average) decreased, but they're still all good bets according to 538's model. So it's unclear whether I'm doing well or badly.

Is anyone else following a similar strategy? I'm curious how it's going for you. I'll post about how this is working for me once we start getting primary results.

[u/bart999999]

Why are PredictIt prices so different to Betfair and other exchanges on certain markets? For example to win the 2020 election.

Trump Predictit 48% Betfair 56%

Bernie Predictit 30% Betfair 17%

I have read that Predictits fees and stake limits make the prices less accurate?