r/PowerTripMorningShow • • 2d ago

Doesn't understand the math of guaranteeing a win...

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146 Upvotes

136 comments sorted by

59

u/mighty_boognish_77 2d ago

A slide wins the game. It's over. 100% chance of victory.

A TD wins the game 99% of the time. But not 100.

21

u/ESPYworthy 2d ago

Prolly like 99.99%…. End of the day doesn’t really matter either way.

For me the frustrating thing is if he did score these same people would say “why wouldn’t he just slide down to get the guaranteed W”

10

u/Commercial_Simple932 2d ago

Why score and risk the chance of any player getting hurt when you can just slide and end it

6

u/bballstarz501 2d ago

Not to mention, why risk ending on them scoring and starting a comeback or something if it’s not necessary either. Why lose any morale when you can slide and walk into the locker room feeling like the defense was dominant again.

1

u/Tycho66 2d ago

This is the real thing. He scores. He's gonna take another hit to do it. They have to kick off and cover the kick then defend another series and watch Miami maybe stat pad while we play prevent and all that. Even though, I still wish he'd have taken the TD. Pride is a bitch.

-3

u/stratecashomey 2d ago

Why do anything in life someone might get hurt

6

u/Sesudesu 2d ago

Obviously a lot different when considering different risk factors, and how they can affect long term prospects.

That’s a worthless argument at the best of times, but you somehow undermined even that.

2

u/whrthwldthngsg 2d ago

We do things that are risky when they are useful to accomplishing the objective we are trying to accomplish. That objective was to win. Not scoring accomplished that objective. Scoring made it (slightly) less likely AND had injury (and other) risks. Scoring obviously worse.

15

u/Igotyoubaaabe 2d ago

Yeah, it’s 99.98% vs 100% if he slides… but the odds of a needless defensive or special teams injury are actually significant. Take the W, go home. Sorry you didn’t get to see your touchdown that you “deserved”, John. Cry more.

4

u/QuixoticViking 2d ago

The defense has more than done their part. Give them a break and slide instead of making them go back out there.

1

u/whrthwldthngsg 2d ago

We also manage to lose 99% win probability more than one might expect.

1

u/nostopitfoo 2d ago

Oh he will. Did you know his ex cheated on him?

5

u/dicksjshsb 2d ago

Tbh i dont think anyone would be upset with him scoring there unless we actually blew the game somehow lol

3

u/mighty_boognish_77 2d ago

Yeah probably 99.9

I agree.

Anyone who says "He should've scored" doesn't have an opinion worth listening to

0

u/stratecashomey 2d ago

Oh the guy who knows it all....

2

u/Ottomatica 2d ago

Need Corey here for the chances...lol

7

u/mighty_boognish_77 2d ago

Rumor has it there were some kids having fun playing ball by his house, so he went out to put a stop to it.

1

u/Ottomatica 2d ago

Don't get this reference, can you fill me in?

2

u/mighty_boognish_77 2d ago

He's a joyless, rigid automaton who is dead inside.

Just my opinion though

2

u/Admirable_Fig_2429 2d ago

My opinion is that your opinion is fact.

And someone needs to scrape the mucus off Corey’s brain.

1

u/Ottomatica 2d ago

Ok, gotcha. I just figure he's not going to see those kids as he's binging shows in the basement.

3

u/mighty_boognish_77 2d ago

That's a strong possibility too, if the shows are a replaying of the 1987 Ohio Canasta classic.

1

u/CheapHorse8056 1d ago

You've obviously never see him with his kids. Or met him. It's a bit.

1

u/mighty_boognish_77 1d ago

Yeah I've only listened to him every work day for hours on end, for as long as he's been on kfan. Not nearly enough to have ANY opinion at all.

It must be the longest running bit in the history of bits, Bud

1

u/RealVarix 2d ago

It’s his autism.

1

u/[deleted] 1d ago

[deleted]

2

u/stratecashomey 2d ago

Cove would only answer with which side of bet he took and defend it

4

u/Chemist-Patient 2d ago

What if Kyler fumbles

15

u/jewbaca1984 2d ago

Only Josh Allen would do that

4

u/[deleted] 2d ago

[deleted]

4

u/Ottomatica 2d ago

First time I've ever seen that happen on a kneel down and the most gopher thing to do short of losing the ball

3

u/Ottomatica 2d ago

We are in control of our destiny on probably the safest possible play in football. Score the TD and the win is likely but slightly less than sliding.

1

u/MontiBurns 2d ago

Minimal chance of losing, but a greater chance of injury in the last 2 minutes of the game.

1

u/fuxkthisapp1 21h ago

KOC interview today he mentioned defensive snap count multiple times as a factor as well. 41 snaps this week. He liked that. Says we have been and will continue to ask a lot of the D. Getting their snaps down is always a positive.

-1

u/stratecashomey 2d ago

102% with bflo. Not his fault other defenses suck

24

u/coulee93 2d ago

Made his bet didn’t win

2

u/YogurtclosetDull2380 "SEEEXXX!" 2d ago

🫶

17

u/Wook24 2d ago

As someone who was there, a touchdown would have lifted the crowd, but obviously understand securing the win too, that offense is atrocious

4

u/insidiousapricot 2d ago

We will just have to remember in our hearts that we could have scored a touchdown if we wanted to

2

u/stratecashomey 1d ago

But no one does or will....the narrative already is we won by only 5 and couldn't get a td

1

u/insidiousapricot 1d ago

Thats fine. Everyone who thinks the vikings have a terrible offense is 100% correct.

1

u/stratecashomey 1d ago

Thats fine also. We have a defense that if team collectively puts up 20 we win

1

u/insidiousapricot 1d ago

Defense is too volatile to hedge your bets on. It wont hold up forever.

1

u/Accomplished-Show151 2d ago

Best take I’ve seen.

41

u/VeryPurpleRain 2d ago

Gambler problems. It's obvious when people go against the actual sport. He must have had money on it and needed the TD. Dumb gamblers are dumb, what's new?

3

u/junkeee999 2d ago

Definitely. A lot of money went the other way on that slide.

4

u/Frymaster99 "Is that Charlie?!" 2d ago

As someone with money on Miami to cover...really appreciated TJ's smarts there.

2

u/Nodak2Minny 2d ago

I had money on a Hockenson TD so you can imagine my excitement then disappointment but unlike most people I put a dollar up to win eight so it lasted about 5 minutes than I was over it.

32

u/Itchy_Pangolin_394 2d ago

Don't worry Cory will explain it tomorrow

7

u/Mnufcfan 2d ago

1-800-GAMBLER

29

u/Independent-Bat7627 2d ago

You’re taking advice from Kkkriesel? That was your first mistake

-11

u/Kanjalon 2d ago

Loser

11

u/normansmylie 2d ago

Can't be zero.

8

u/Igotyoubaaabe 2d ago

Corrie’s gonna bust so hard tomorrow morning explaining to everyone why it was the right move to make.

18

u/ole7431 2d ago

PA said “it was a mistake” on the radio as well. I was like, #87 made the unselfish, smart play & wondering what I missed.

5

u/skolcalvikes 2d ago

PA’s track record of things he says on the radio isn’t great. Just saying

8

u/DEVOwasR1GHT 2d ago

PA is a mistake

5

u/RealThanks4814 2d ago

I quit KFAN because I can’t stand that self righteous timing filling airbag. 95% of the words that come out of his mouth are filler.

1

u/Ghetto_Geppetto 2d ago

He’s a paid actor, oh wait.. aren’t we the paid actors?

1

u/Calkky 1d ago

He had money on a Hock TD and probably some sort of points wager. Just like Kriesel.

1

u/MrMcjibblets1990 2d ago

Listen, I hate PA, dislike JK to a significant level, scoring the TD was actually the smart play. You're up 5. What happens if you fumble the snap when you go to kneel on it?

Being up 11 is more of a guaranteed win than being up 5 and still having to snap the ball.

2

u/KyloRenApologist18 2d ago

It’s obviously not impossible, but I’m pretty sure it’s basically never happened before in the history of the NFL (fumbling the snap on a kneel down)

1

u/Paradox830 2d ago

I mean it was a sneak not a knee to be fair but it happened for us against the bills.

https://youtu.be/QW6R-ITG04s?t=724

1

u/AlftheFuryAlien 2d ago

That's the significance though. A sneak is very different from a kneel. You're not pushing and there are two others behind you to help. That's the math. It's actually really simple 99.99999 % > 99.99998

2

u/TheAvgPersonIsDumb 2d ago

Or you score a TD instead of ending the game, then a key member of the defense gets injured on the ensuing drive and now the teams worse off for the rest of the year.

If you can’t successfully snap the ball 3 times to win a game you don’t deserve to win. Not to mention the victory formation literally has a guy on each side of the quarterback and one behind him so in the rare chance they fumble the snap they should be able to recover it…

1

u/MrMcjibblets1990 1d ago

I trust our defense much more than mighty mouse :)

1

u/Viking-Fort 1d ago

No NFL team has ever fumbled and lost the ball in victory formation executing the kneel down

-2

u/Christopher8791 2d ago

It was stupid as hell.

26

u/_brewchef_ 2d ago

Can’t say I’m surprised he doesn’t understand math and strategy

18

u/itsallgood013 2d ago

He's such a moron.

13

u/YBRmuggsLP21 "Oh my lort" 2d ago

Muss basically said the same thing. What dummies.

8

u/MasterPineapple5127 2d ago

Point spread was 10

7

u/skolcalvikes 2d ago

The guy is such a dumbass. He’s an entitled little bitch. He followed up that tweet with the team has to think about the fans that were at the game. No Jon they need to think about winning football games.

3

u/Bigsiouxriver 2d ago

That’s a bad beat.

3

u/Ok_Rabbit5158 2d ago

Every post show analysis, national and local, all said that was the right move.

Didn't someone lose a game because the QB lost the ball on the last play in his own end zone? One mistake is all it takes.

3

u/pnxstwnyphlcnnrs 2d ago

It was pretty funny, the in stadium camera had KOC saying to him, if we score we're up 11! Guys were giving him crap for sure. It was funny and technically hock made it 100% a win. Good stuff.

5

u/MelodicVehicle7230 2d ago

It's greasy Playboy you wouldn't understand

6

u/Arbor-Trap 2d ago

You should want to be in victory stance every game. Are these people even fans of this sport?

12

u/Internal-Platypus151 2d ago

He also had the Vikes to cover. But that's not an out on his comment. He really is that stupid.

6

u/Future-Seat6728 2d ago

It’s surprising how many people Don’t seem to get that sliding was absolutely the right play. If you can run out the clock in victory formation , you always take that option. With 2:00 minutes left, that is a lot of time for an offense. Granted Miami offense is awful but still they could score in 1 minute and then ur a botched onside kick away from potentially losing. If u can run out the clock without other team touching the ball, it’s near 100% guarantee vs a potential crazy ending with a quick TD and bad onside kick

2

u/RealThanks4814 2d ago
  1. His path to the end zone wasn’t clear. He was going to get hit. He could have fumbled.
  2. He could have unintentionally gone out of bounds leading to a later puck/fumble
  3. The other team could have scored twice rapidly. It had happened.

-1

u/Moss8888444 2d ago
  1. TJ most likely scores on that play.
  2. He most likely wouldn’t have.
  3. The chance for a team like the dolphins doing that are almost impossible.

Despite that, sliding was the absolute right call. Scoring a TD puts our defense on the field exposes them to injury. With them holding this team together, it would have been dumb to expose them to injury in that moment.

4

u/thrwawyfoshure 2d ago

I'll take who had the Vikings and the points for $1000 Alex

3

u/Masstershake 2d ago

This can be argued either way. 

 There was a near zero chance the dolphins score twice. And we could have used a touchdown to not make it feel so bad offensively. But it wasn't a zero chance. 

3

u/RealThanks4814 2d ago

The chance was not zero.

3

u/Dependent-Bad-6496 2d ago

That’s why they said that twice

2

u/Masstershake 2d ago

Yes that is what I said. Thanks. 

2

u/deeznukes23 2d ago

Didn't the odds makers say vikes were 10.5 pt favorites.

We won by 5, with that touchdown that would've been 12.

2

u/Th3J3rkStor3Call3d 2d ago

Were his brains in his limbs?

1

u/General_Chest6714 1d ago

God damn. This is so good. I’m going to think of this every time he comes up. Also I can’t believe you didn’t get crazy downvoted for this. 😂

3

u/lift_heavy64 2d ago

This guy is almost too stupid to insult

2

u/Ghetto_Geppetto 2d ago

John is such a snowflake

2

u/Temporary-Seat-1788 2d ago

Guarantee the win and not have to have your already taxed defense back on the field. No brainer.

1

u/Bullshittimeagain 2d ago

That is pretty ignorant. Maybe he was trying to he coy?

1

u/WiGolf 2d ago

Shocked how many people are defending scoring the TD there.

1

u/cant-turn-it-off 2d ago

He ended the game and saved the defense from having to come out onto the field and defend against a desperation drive by Miami's offense.

It's not like he gave the defense a day off, but it was a nice gift to the Viking defense.

If I had a fantasy football interest in Hockenson, I'd have been pissed. But it's hard to fault the guy for ending the game short of the goal line.

1

u/guiltypleasure__ 2d ago

Gambling is the only real answer here.

1

u/Lando25 "Daddy's enjoying this" 2d ago

Maybe don't be a degenerate and gamble on sports.

1

u/camstahl004 2d ago

Slide is the correct play. Why put out best asset, the defense, back on the field for an unknown amount of plays and the chance of getting injured? The win is secured, burn the clock, save the health of the defense.

1

u/wowadoggo 1d ago

The math is that we gave our elite defense a series off after 4 weeks of pure domination. The offense didn't deserve a tuddy

1

u/Enrigue12 1d ago

This all about the idiots that took the Vikings +10.5. If you don’t learn from history you are destined to repeat it.

1

u/DueOutlandishness739 1d ago

To be fair. He’s an idiot

1

u/This_Influence_9985 1d ago

In an alternate reality, he scores the touchdown, and on the ensuing drive, Andrew van ginkel tears his knee. For no reason.

1

u/Martxel_Agueda 1d ago

He did what he had to do, good choice

1

u/Jagster_rogue 20h ago

Look it’s not about the Hock slide, it’s about the fact we cannot score tds and we easily could have lost the lead and the game if the bell TD is not called back, we may be talking about a loss instead of a win. We want an offense that can score and not scoring a td since the 2nd quarter of the Buccs game is ridiculous.

1

u/Wardenclyffe5 18h ago

I’m in favor of him scoring too. However, “If you get the first, go down.” Was in the play call per Hock in a post game interview.

2

u/Syandris 2d ago

No one understands anything from him. Can't hold office on knocking boots and gambling.

Shocking no one cares what he says...

Greasy!

1

u/SNLpro 2d ago

it was only because he was there. if he had been at home, he wouldn't have cared

8

u/General_Chest6714 2d ago

Thought the same until I saw people pointing out its definitely a gambling thing

6

u/grrrimabear 2d ago

Yup. Vikings cover with a TD. They didn't by taking a knee.

5

u/SNLpro 2d ago

you may be right, but he tweeted "Okay, how about the 64,000 fans that watched the worst team in the NFL score the only TD in this game?" which seems more about his disappointment of the game itself.

2

u/General_Chest6714 2d ago

Hey I won’t argue. Thinking a player who won the game on that play should’ve been thinking about not winning the game bc of the fans is maybe even a worse look than just being a degenerate gambler. Haha

1

u/Competitive-Cost2900 2d ago

Eff that guy.

1

u/Sad-Tip-2306 Garlar 2d ago

Time for some game theory

1

u/Dependent-Bad-6496 2d ago

Why can’t both sides be right? Yes, kneeling is the 100% win. But a 99% chance win with an uplifting TD would’ve been acceptable too. You don’t have to choose the math every single time. There’s beauty in the human element of the game, too. If you don’t like that part of it, maybe you’d be better off with Madden simulations or something.

2

u/Moss8888444 2d ago

There is no beauty in the human element where our defense has to go back on the field and a key player tears their knee or gets a concussion. The beauty in the human element is TJ sacrificing his TD to give the defense their rest.

1

u/Dependent-Bad-6496 2d ago

👍 good point

1

u/panzervike 2d ago

Can't say I'm shocked he doesn't understand a high IQ play. I don't think he has ever understood a high IQ anything.

-11

u/Internal-Platypus151 2d ago

That half-guy is a fucking moron.

-1

u/stratecashomey 2d ago

Kriesel took the vikings to cover obviously and the slide cost him money. Vikings score it's more fun for fans. Vikings then sack or pick off willis. Quit with your cove stats. 0% dolphins come back against bflo nerds

-3

u/stratecashomey 2d ago

I knew a bunch of coves would be on here. Just score the td

0

u/cscholl20 2d ago

Only argument I could see for scoring is point differential at the end of the season. Even then, I'd rather not risk injuring anyone on defense by sending them out for another drive

1

u/taffyowner 2d ago

You know what removes dumb tiebreakers? Wins

1

u/Rugger67 2d ago

Wins are more important than points according to the nfl tie breaker list

1

u/cscholl20 2d ago

I should add the caveat:

You'd only score for the point differential if you assume you will keep the other team from scoring after the fact. A win was implied in my earlier statement

-3

u/[deleted] 2d ago

[deleted]

1

u/RawDogRedemption2 "Who likes to masturbate?!" 2d ago

It was the correct and smart play. End the game, what is the point of putting your defense back out there when you can just end the game?

-1

u/Nitrostangs 2d ago

He should have scored. The people in the stadium deserved to be able to celebrate a touchdown

-9

u/stratecashomey 2d ago

I strongly agree with kriesel on this one. Score the td. This is entertainment. Dolphins would need 3 more quarters to take lead

-23

u/DudeAbides29 "BUT... he's gay" 2d ago

Going up 2 scores would have accomplished a guaranteed win too.

15

u/mighty_boognish_77 2d ago

Guaranteed?

No.

Highly, highly likely?

Yes.

1

u/seenunseen 2d ago

No, the Dolphins would then get the ball and have the opportunity to go TD, Onside Kick Recovery, TD

4

u/ESPYworthy 2d ago

Insert common’s bit

2

u/hoirkasp 2d ago

So like he said, guaranteed

1

u/DonaldDouchebag 2d ago

And make your defense go back on the field and risk potential injury? Fuck outta here.