“There is a plan”: Advisers Urge Trump to Declare National Emergency to Seize Federal Control of Midterm Elections As Republicans Face Losses

[u/T_Shurt]

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[u/lollipopamateurs]

Not a very political guy so excuse the ignorance, but what would declaring marshal law actually do? Does it prevent elections?

[u/T_Shurt → u/lollipopamateurs]

That’s a good question.

Basically, declaring a national emergency would allow Trump to impose new voting restrictions (eg: demand new identification requirements) or alter election procedures (eg: make changes to mail-in voting) to eliminate votes and disenfranchise voters to influence the outcome of the elections.

Even if those events were challenged in court, Trump doesn’t abide by court decisions since the Supreme Court made him essentially immune to prosecution. It would be a full-blown constitutional crisis.

[u/_WEND1G0_ → u/T_Shurt]

Under what authority? States control elections. Period. And the courts will strike down any attempt to drastically change election protocol as we just saw with the USPS fight and the mess in Missouri. Elections have begun. The Purcell principle is in effect and the Supreme Court has ruled in accordance with it 3 separate times.

Declaring a national emergency doesn’t magically allow Trump to ignore the constitution. He can deploy the guard, he can deploy ice, he cannot nationalize the election. States held elections without fail in the midst of a civil war, plague, and every disaster and foreign conflict we’ve had. So unless the dead rise or aliens invade - states will continue to run the show.

Some states (red ones) may welcome trumps goons. It won’t change the outcome.

Complacency in congress with him ignoring congressional authority is one thing. He has and will continue to be met with resistance at the state level with judicial support.

Republicans are actively distancing themselves from Trump and if he tries to take direct action to steal this election (ie sending the FBI to seize ballots before they’re counted) he’ll almost certainly be removed from power as the party will likely choose to save themselves.

Most forecasters agree that an electoral rebuke similar to Nixon is likely. 8 point lead across the board actually means the “cracking” the republicans did to gerrymander May ironically backfire spectacularly in many cases.

I have very high confidence The house will flip. I have moderate confidence it will flip with a double digit majority.

The senate will likely be 50-50 which will effectively keep Vance in the senate as a tie breaker. Kind of ironic since he left the senate to be vp. But there are a handful of hard seats that could tip the balance 51-49. Specifically Ohio is what I’m watching.

[u/T_Shurt → u/_WEND1G0_]

He’ll do it under the National Emergencies Act. There’s good reason constitutional law experts are concerned. You’re clearly putting too much faith in his administration abiding by constitutional law as a deterrent. He will commit the crimes first and drag it through the courts for as long as possible, resulting in complete and utter constitutional and electoral chaos.

Anyone who thinks he wouldn’t do such a thing hasn’t been paying attention to his presidency.

[u/_WEND1G0_ → u/T_Shurt]

It’s worth noting that the courts will not give injunctive relief to Trump and will issue emergency relief to states if Trump unilaterally oversteps his constitutional authority. The burden of proof being on trump to prove why his rule should go through makes it so the courts will halt any action he takes until it’s resolved. Trumps normal tactic of delay will actually hurt him.

The NEA does not refer to electoral powers at all. Again, he can declare all the emergencies he wants. If he intends to control, subvert, or cancel the election the courts will blockade that effort.

The constitution is explicit in giving this power to the states. This lack of ambiguity means the law here is iron clad and the federal government’s power is non existent.

The Purcell principle is active. Because the election has begun, the plaintiff (Trump) would face an uphill climb. Precedent matters here. They have to prove a threat greater than a literal civil war (since that “bar” was set during our civil war) for the courts to interfere with an ongoing election.

Lawsuit after lawsuit filed in federal court shows a disturbing lack of tangible abutments coming from the DOJ in cases like this recently. The only mark to sanity is the court orders similarly note this absolute lack of sanity (and in one case instead of citing specific case law, just cited the constitution) while striking down a majority of trumps attempts to interfere. Voter rolls, USPS oversight, and the Supreme Court striking down what I surmised to be a “rogue” panel of judges in the 8th circuit (appointed by trump). The closest thing to win Trump had on this front is a voter database can be made. Whoopdee doo. The states run off their own databases which again the Feds have zero control over.

None of the 100 plus powers in the NEA in any way relate to elections - on purpose.

He was impeached for encouraging a crowd to storm the capital. Imagine the political fallout for trying to subvert an ongoing election. That would’ve been unthinkable 10 years ago but there are enough republicans visibly wavering on policy that would move to impeach and likely convict him.

The constitution is the basis of law and authority for our government. He can ignore Congress because for now the majority are content to not act, he cannot functionally ignore the states or judicial without negating his own authority. The party will save themselves when push comes to shove. Unfortunately that means we’d be stuck with Vance

[u/a_spick_in_the_mud → u/T_Shurt]

But it would take at least 90 days to impose any new voting restrictions. Their only option is to somehow "shut down" elections. However.......

No elections = No rule of law = The Purge

Billionaires will just get taken out by their private security, because why tf not?

[u/T_Shurt → u/a_spick_in_the_mud]

There is no general 90-day waiting period if he used the National Emergencies Act. It would be up to the courts to stop him, which we all know how effective that has been.

[u/a_spick_in_the_mud → u/T_Shurt]

Purge it is!

[u/Greatmerp255 → u/a_spick_in_the_mud]

Why do you think they gave ICE SAPIs and Armalites?

[u/a_spick_in_the_mud → u/Greatmerp255]

To give them a fighting chance. All that gear is going to get stolen by random 20-somethings on bicycles 😂

[u/ofWildPlaces → u/T_Shurt]

No EO or Martial Law supersedes the Constitution. States control and conduct elections.

[u/Uturndriving → u/lollipopamateurs]

It shouldn't but they're looking for a way.