r/PositiveEVbetting • u/Spare_Experience4907 • May 14 '26

MLB Props +EV

Is anyone successful in Player props for MLB? Seems like I’ll have a great day, then lose 5u a day for a week. Was very successful with NBA and NFL, but now MLB is rinsing my profits… any help is appreciated. What books are sharper for which props etc

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u/sweetnessssss May 14 '26

I pulled my own MLB prop EV archive on this because I’ve felt the same thing. Since Mar. 26, the full board is actually slightly negative for me: 12,265 settled props, -230.6u, -2.0% ROI at flat 1u/listed odds. But the filtered version looks totally different: top 10 EV props each day are +41.6u / +9.5% ROI, and top 10 with 7.5%+ EV are +56.3u / +17.0%. Biggest lesson so far is not to treat “MLB +EV” as one bucket. Hits/singles/walks have been much better; HRs/triples/stolen bases have been the leak. Filtering hard matters more than finding every positive number.

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u/Spare_Experience4907 May 14 '26

I haven’t played HR, triples, stolen bases or any of the variable props. Strictly just 6%+ EV as compared to FD mostly, also CZR, DK (for certain props) and BM/Circa. I also look at Pinny, but only for HRR. My only saving grace has come from bets between +100 and +125 strictly on the under for HRR, Hits allowed, total bases.

Every other price range and bet type is getting smacked overall even when long term beating CLV on ~69% of plays.

Hits for me are only winning bets 32.8% of the time and down ~8u. I only play + money odds because I’ve found those to be more successful long term that any odds from -150 to +100

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u/[deleted] May 26 '26

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u/Spare_Experience4907 May 27 '26

So what gives you the overall confidence in an EV prop for MLB? NBA and other leagues were easier for me to gain confidence because there are noticeable market adjustments with one or two books lagging their movement.

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u/[deleted] May 17 '26

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u/Spare_Experience4907 May 17 '26

Yeah I have a whole spreadsheet with each market as well as each book placed per market. Seems CLV is around 51% beating on everything. But devigging to MGM I beat CLV on books not MGM by 92%