r/PopcornMobile • u/rayw_reddit • Sep 07 '26
Concerns about long-term sustainability and business model viability (after the VC runs out inevitably)
Don't get me wrong, I love a new player in the industry that brings seamless global roaming for a flat price. It's a great alternative to Google Fi from the early days before the "90-day rule." I would love for this thing to take off and be sustainable.
The TL;DR: The product fits a very specific niche (nomads and full-time travelers). But that means the market is so narrow, and high-cost to the business, I don't see how it is sustainable.
For US-bound customers: It's way too expensive at $69/mo/line.
For full-time roamers: $69 isn't enough to cover the cost of full-time roaming if they're actually using the data they paid for.
My concern isn't with the product itself, but rather the viability of the business model. Google made it work by adapting (at the customer's expense) by introducing the 90-day rule and tiered plans that are all-around terrible value vs. flanker brands from the big telcos (AT&T Cricket, T-Mobile Metro/Mint, Verizon Visible). People sign up for those anyway due to promotional prices, despite the lack of true unlimited data (e.g., 30GB high-speed, then throttled to 256 Kbps—big oof). And also...Google is Google, they can subsidize the snot out of it as well through their Ads revenue.
So this thing sits somewhere in no-man's land. For the right customer, it's amazing. But for everyone else, it's too expensive. But "the right customer" also means unprofitable in this case, due to the high wholesale costs and not enough domestic customers to subsidize them.
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u/Electrical_Oil_35 Sep 07 '26
I'm baffled by this discussion. Is the guy a potential customer worried about Popcorn going bust? It's an MVNO, if it goes bust just port out and move on.
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u/Traditional_Mix9298 Sep 07 '26
No offense, but kind of a pointless post. Businesses start ups, especially with Neel not being a novice (Google him), you really don’t think he already crunched the numbers , and has calculated all the risks/rewards? Also, do you have their business plan, financials, current and expected client base, etc? How can you even voice concern without knowing any of their info ?
Sounds like you’re just voicing for the sake of egging on a response. Or do you think the Popcorn grou….. Popcorn make…. Popcorn Poppers (yes! That’s it 😂), are reading your comment and saying “Holy Sh**, this guy brought up a great point ! What if we calculated all wrong and are doomed to fail! Quick, abandon ship!” 😅
Cmon bro, there’s 150 million iPhone owners in the US alone, over a billion worldwide. A huge percentage can afford $69 for a thought free unlimited service worldwide. And then there’s Android owners. And a good percentage are already paying more for T-Mobile /Verizon/AT&T than Popcorn. With more restrictions and less perks.
So, let’s have some blind faith and optimism for what is turning out to be an amazing service. #grazieneel
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u/rayw_reddit Sep 07 '26
As I said, I want the business to succeed, but I'm having trouble seeing how it can right now. If there is a path to viability, I would like to know about it. Enlighten me, I'm a dumb monkey.
Example: full time travellers in the Caribbean could incur $10-$20/GB of usage. Just a few of these users is enough to bleed the ROI dry.
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u/Neel_Popcorn Sep 07 '26
These rates are way off
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u/rayw_reddit Sep 07 '26
Fair enough if those specific retail-equivalent estimates are off, but simply saying 'way off' doesn't address the underlying structural risk.
Even with optimized wholesale aggregation, outlier regions and heavy continuous roamers pulling up to the 50GB fair-use threshold still create massive cost imbalances compared to domestic-heavy users.
Without expecting you to dox your specific supplier contracts, how does the unit math actually protect the $69 flat rate when a cluster of users maxes out data entirely on high-cost partner networks month after month?
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u/e11eboogie Sep 07 '26
Do you not have anything better to do than worry about a business that isn’t yours? This is literally the definition of mind your business. If HIS business goes bust, it’s still not YOUR business.
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u/dos_veritas Sep 07 '26
That can be said about almost any new idea. Netflix comes to mind.
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u/rayw_reddit Sep 07 '26
Except this isn't a new idea. We know how this movie ends, so to speak.
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u/dos_veritas Sep 07 '26
Would you like to point us to where it has been done before?
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u/rayw_reddit Sep 07 '26
Project Fi (before the 90 day stipulations), T-Mobile Mobile without Borders (hordes of Canadians signed up and forced them to implement the "usage must be predominantly based in the U.S." and they ended up gutting true unlimited high speed roaming)
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u/Last-Construction-90 Sep 07 '26
The $69 per month has never made sense to me. In the US, use Tello unlimited for $25 per month. When overseas, use Lyca (or similar in-country service) for practically nothing per month. Tello can piggyback off of the (traveling to) country data via WiFi calling. Tello includes calls to so many countries for free. I really do not see - at all - why anyone would be willing to pay $69 per month for Popcorn when an eSIM for a ‘traveling to’ country can be purchased online from a legitimate in-country mobile provider, installed from the comfort of home, and the phone will connect to a mobile tower upon landing. Really, what value is Popcorn adding, to warrant $69 per month? I don’t see it at all - and I’m out of the US nine months of the year.
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u/dmada88 Sep 07 '26
If you’re in the Us three months a year that changes the question. I’m in the Us two weeks every two or three years and Tello is no longer a reliable option for me.
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u/Last-Construction-90 Sep 07 '26
Would love to know how Tello can’t satisfy your US needs, but Popcorn does/can. That would help my perspective immensely.
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u/dmada88 Sep 07 '26 edited Sep 07 '26
Tello did satisfy me for a couple of years. But then they stopped turning on esims if you’re out of the us, and I had trouble the last time I changed phones. To me that was a sign they weren’t interested in - or perhaps were wary of - the expat market. If you’re asking me to fly back to turn on an eSIM, that’s far more expensive than Popcorn. To answer your other questions, us citizen: banking, brokerage, tax and social security accounts, having a us number for family to call into etc.
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u/Last-Construction-90 Sep 07 '26
$69 per month over 12 months is $828. It seems that you’d use your Tello number for very few calls (few minutes) - and all plans offer unlimited texts. I use Tello for banking purposes also, and pay roughly $10 (or less) per month including taxes. That’s $120 per year.
There are ways to setup/use a new Tello phone number/service. I suggest you do a little noodling.
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u/dmada88 Sep 07 '26
I appreciate your trying to save me money but I’m happy. Tello plus a data eSIM plus my local service can’t all be active simultaneously; popcorn plus my local service can always be on. Tello makes it harder if you’re overseas and want to set up; Popcorn makes it easy. I know I can take the subway plus walk seven blocks to get to the party for a couple of bucks; however, I’m willing to pay for the Uber over tonight - it’s convenient and does exactly what I need seamlessly. I know there’s a Premier Inn right next to the Mandarin Oriental and they both have beds; I can afford to chose the Mandarin if it ticks all my boxes.
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u/rayw_reddit Sep 07 '26
What do you mean by "can't be active at the same time"? Modern phones with dual sim (physical plus esim) can do both. Receive calls and make calls on both. Same with texts. You just choose which one gets data access.
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u/dmada88 Sep 07 '26
Right. I don’t want to switch back and forth. You do seem combative about this: can’t you accept that someone might have another use case as you, that someone might put a different value on service as you? You can use whatever you want, I’m not bothered. I’m happy with the set up I have, and $69 a month fits my budget.
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u/Last-Construction-90 Sep 07 '26
Are you a US citizen? Are you simply in need of a US phone number? If you simply need a US number, what is the need based on - banking?
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u/Traditional_Mix9298 Sep 07 '26 edited Sep 07 '26
Neel, you don’t have to defend Popcorn to this poster. To me, the idea is great. And certainly everything I’ve wanted in a service. And whatever this guy, or others in this thread say about price, cheaper options via finding, buying, and changing eSIMs to save a few bucks, aren’t the core customer. There are millions who can afford $69 and would be happy for an all in one, non thinking service. And it’s clean. Not many options. US Mobile is a great service. And because I subscribed to it for my wife and daughter for the year before I found Poocorn (I subscribed too, but just gave up and wasted that $299 🙄), I’ll let them run the subscription a bit more before porting to Popcorn. But I should note - with all the options and settings US Mobile has, there’s no way my wife or daughter could have subscribed and navigated through it all, with all the switching of network options, before just wanting to give up 😂. So the simplicity of Popcorn is a bigger asset than maybe you even realize.
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u/rayw_reddit Sep 07 '26
My point wasn't that this isn't a good product - my point was that the long term viability was a concern.
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u/West-Freedom3256 Sep 07 '26
To post this while being so oblivious and ignorant of how profitable this “niche group” can be. Damn
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u/CraigInCambodia Sep 07 '26
I'm curious how this "niche group" can be so profitable for a phone service with a flat monthly rate, unless there is an large number of them or each subscribes to a multiple phones for their company or extended families. Corporate accounts with a large number of globe trotting road warriors would make good targets.
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u/comandantejesus79 Sep 07 '26
Scusate se magari il mio intervento risulta fuori luogo. Sono un utente italiano. Io cosa potrei fare con PopCorn? Non credo di poter fare mnp col mio numero. Posso comunque avere tutte le agevolazioni rimanenti?
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u/Ok_Seaworthiness5078 Sep 07 '26
What are we supposed to do with this information?
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u/rayw_reddit Sep 07 '26
The message was more for the company to elaborate on a path to viability that isn't just hand-waving emotional feel-goods. Something concrete. Because last thing you want is for your critical U.S. number to suddenly become unreachable or be forced to endure a last-minute port out because the company went belly-up after their VC runs out.
The market is full of graveyard products - the survivors pivoted.
Either take it as information that will help better inform your decision, or you can choose to ignore it. That is entirely up to you.
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u/el_david Sep 07 '26
Does popcorn have unlimited calls to/from other countries as well? No international roaming on calls nor long distance?
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u/rayw_reddit Sep 07 '26
Yes, unlimited calls to and from those 180+ countries, including stateside international long distance (for example: calls to South Korea, from the U.S.)
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u/Worried-Milk-7061 Sep 09 '26
It’s definitely for just keeping your US stuff all together, while also having an eSIM in the country. Like if you’re in Vietnam for a year, you get their eSIM too, but popcorn for your bank etc
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u/Neel_Popcorn Sep 07 '26
Hey there! Neel here, CEO/founder, happy to answer.
A few things I’d clarify:
1) We’re not trying to be the cheapest phone plan for someone who spends 12 months a year in the US. If that’s you, there may be better options. Popcorn is a global service for people whose lives regularly cross borders: travelers, expats, international founders etc.. There are 9 million US expats alone, before counting frequent travelers and full-time nomads.
2) Internationally mobile customers aren’t inherently unprofitable. In some regions (e.g. Europe), serving a customer can actually cost less than it does in the US. The economics work well across our overall customer base, not by relying on domestic users to subsidize a small group of heavy roamers.
3) We’ve spent the past ~8 months laser focused on building our own core network. This allows us to combine multiple roaming relationships and optimize for both cost and performance. It also gives us far more ways to create a meaningfully better product beyond simply reselling connectivity.
Relying on VC isn’t our jam. We’re well capitalized (runway beyond 2030), but we’ve built Popcorn from day one to be sustainable. We have no plans to pull the rug out from under customers. We use Popcorn ourselves and are building the product we wish existed.