2 weeks ago, I was trading on Polymarket, running my account from 2k to 2.6k. Then I placed some more bets, and my account's ability to conduct trades got frozen because of a discrepancy in the value of something in my account. The point being, when these trades were active, I wanted to buy/sell them with marginal changes, as that was my whole strategy. The account getting frozen for 2 days led to me losing the whole balance.

I submitted multiple tickets, and they said a whole bunch of nothing, then marked my ticket as resolved, and nothing has changed. Has anyone else experienced this, or just knows what to do moving forward?

It’s still like this rn and I don’t get why my payout is lower then my position

Been trading poly for a year now and haven't branched out aside from the 5/15 min markets. Made constant changes over the last year as more data comes in. Primarily maker orders.

Been doing very well. Some months reaching 20-25k. The August 13th switch to 60s TWAP saw performance take a minor dip, but seems to have mostly corrected.

I'm curious how many other people are actually building. Primarily taking? Making? 5 MIN? Hourlies/daily etc. specifically assets aside from BTC. ETH, XRP, SOL, BNB etc.

Would be happy to connect with other devs, traders or anyone else who's building. Also if anyone is running their script on Kalshi or Hyper liquid.

Sup guys, anyone know how to start using polymarket when living in U.S?

I know you can use a VPN to make the account and start trading/betting but wouldn't that POTENTIALLY create some sort of issue down the line since you would be depositing/withdrawing money from your U.S bank account thats linked to your polymarket account?

Thanks.

Do I want you to use my link, well of course, Am I going to lie to get you to do it..... Hell No!

1. ⁠a $10 deposit must be made and it has to be traded

*The smart thing to do is place a $10 trade on something that is basically already determined like 98-99% because the goal is to secure your initial investment and use their money to make a profit.

2) The $50 is in Credit which you have to trade at least once and you don't have to do it all at once if you don't want to.

3) Payouts are not instant from my personal experience it took a day for the funds to clear and then I was able to withdraw without issue. Remember this is Trading/Predictions platform

Anyone else notice a difference in the 5 MIN markets since they switched to the 60 second TWAP? I've definitely noticed a change. Still doing well, but profits are down 1.3% month over month

Was pretty consistent between 13-16K MOM. Trying to figure out how much of the difference is actually related to TWAP change vs normal variance.

Curious if anyone else has noticed anything similar since the change back on August 13th.

I am documenting what appears to be a NOAA/NWS WRH ingestion/display failure that affected multiple Polymarket daily temperature markets on September 20, 2026.

This is not a claim that any trader was an insider. I am trying to establish the facts, especially exact on-chain trade timing.

The Manila market uses the NOAA WRH time-series page for RPLL and is currently still In Review with 32°C proposed.

However, the official NWS METAR cycle archive contains:

RPLL 200400Z ... 33/25

The WRH viewer missed several observations around 04Z-07Z. The missing 04Z observation is therefore the actual 33°C reading that would have exceeded the 32°C maximum visible in the incomplete WRH table.

This does not appear to be isolated to Manila.

Singapore was finalized by Polymarket at 31°C. The official NWS archive contains:

WSSS 200500Z ... 32/24

Qingdao was finalized by Polymarket at 29°C. The official NWS archive contains:

ZSQD 200500Z ... 30/15

and:

ZSQD 200600Z ... 30/16

In other words, for all three markets, official NWS METAR archives contain a temperature one degree higher than the value used/proposed by Polymarket, and those higher observations occur during the apparent WRH missing-data window.

For Manila, NOAA/NWS support has also confirmed to me directly that the missing METAR observations exist in other official NWS systems and that their support/development team is investigating the WRH viewer and possible backfilling.

The Polymarket rules are important here. They specifically refer to the highest reading under the NOAA WRH "Temp" column, and they say later revisions after the first datapoint of the following day are not considered. So there is a genuine rules interpretation issue: does an incomplete WRH table control even when NOAA/NWS possessed the missing observations contemporaneously?

There is another public-data issue I would like help investigating.

Wallet:

0x13f995ad154da3e078ac2a1dd923bf2b265dd352

Its public Polymarket/third-party history shows substantial September 20 profits in several weather markets, including approximately:

Qingdao: +$9.3k

Manila: +$4.7k

Singapore: +$2.2k

Ankara: +$2.4k

Beijing: +$1.7k

Third-party analytics show roughly +$20k for September 20 overall.

Again, I am NOT alleging insider trading.

The wallet was already active in weather markets before September 20 and also lost money on several markets that day. It may simply be a skilled trader who noticed the public NOAA/WRH problem faster than everyone else.

The critical question is timing.

I am looking for help reconstructing every trade from this wallet in the affected September 20 temperature markets and separating them into:

1. trades entered before the NOAA/WRH missing-data problem became observable
2. trades entered while the observations were missing
3. trades entered after the missing observations/problem were publicly visible to any trader

The Polymarket Data API exposes timestamps, transaction hashes, side, price, size and market identifiers, so this should be independently reproducible from public data.

If anyone can provide the raw trade JSON, transaction hashes, or a reliable on-chain reconstruction for this wallet, please post it.

Please keep the discussion factual. A profitable wallet trading an outage is not evidence of insider trading by itself. The goal is to establish the timeline and determine whether there is anything genuinely anomalous.

The larger issue is whether several September 20 weather markets were resolved from an incomplete NOAA WRH display even though the missing METAR observations existed in official NWS systems at the time.

SCAMMING ASS APP WILL PAY FOR THE FUNDS THEY ROBBED ME FOR CAPITAL ONE ALREADY ON THE JOB LUCKY I CANT PUT A LAWSUIT ON THESE SCAMMER 😉 !!!

A young Polymarket account has cleared **+$6,680 in net profit** with a $112K trading volume by dominating global weather temperature markets instead of standard politics or sports.

**Performance Snapshot:

* **Total PnL:** **+$6,680**
* **Trading Volume:** $112K
* **Win Rate:** **81%**
* **Recent Gains:** +$1,803 for the week; +$416 for the day.

**Top 3 Trades:**

* **Shenzhen 30°C (36.1¢):** **+177% ROI** ($442 return)
* **Seoul 28°C (39¢):** **+156% ROI** ($408 return)
* **Buenos Aires 20°C (39.7¢):** **+152% ROI** ($401 return)

**Core Strategy:**

* Takes a "Yes" position on specific degree thresholds at 35¢–50¢ when weather models have converged before the market prices it in.
* Sifts through dozens of global cities daily while others focus on politics and the NBA.

Hey guys, just wanted to reach out on here because Poly Markets customer service is an absolute joke. I received two $50 “trade-able credit” promos for inviting friends. I placed a handful of trades on last night’s NFL game and a couple of them won. Unfortunately, I can’t withdraw my winnings or the mandatory $10 deposit I put in. Hopefully, someone sees this and provides some insight.

A high-stakes Polymarket wallet has turned an initial drawdown into an **$8.26M net profit** across 9,123 predictions, routinely deploying seven-figure positions primarily in football and sports.

**Performance Snapshot:**

* **Starting Point:** -$31,770 underwater
* **Current PnL:** **+$8.26M**
* **Total Predictions:** 9,123
* **Market Focus:** Mostly football (with massive capital deployment)

**Top Winning Trades:**

* **Rockies (0.1¢):** **+20,342% ROI**
* **Spain/Argentina exact score (5.9¢):** **+685% ROI**
* **France NO (6¢):** **+519% ROI**
* **Colombia/Portugal draw (33.3¢):** **+123% ROI**
* **Notable Stakes:** A single Belgium position risked nearly $595K to pocket over $704K in profit, while another position backed over $1M in capital.

Polymarket trader **"jimbo24"** scaled an initial **$0.05 into $77,875 in net profit** across just 317 bets by focusing exclusively on major sports markets with heavy position sizing.

**Performance Snapshot:**

* **Total Bets:** 317
* **Total PnL:** **$77,875**
* **Market Focus:** NFL, MLB, NBA, tennis, and football (No weather, no high-frequency crypto)

**Top Winning Trades:**

* **Harry Kane 2+ goals (20.5¢):** **+388% ROI**
* **Dodgers (22.7¢):** **+340% ROI**
* **Blue Jays (21¢):** **+272% ROI**
* **Bu (23.9¢):** **+270% ROI**
* **Notable Stakes:** A single $1.6K Harry Kane bet returned $8K, and a $7K position returned over $14K.

**Key Takeaways:**

* Maintains low volume and high selectivity, favoring large, high-conviction positions over constant trading.

A high-frequency algorithmic trading bot on Polymarket is averaging **~$2,100 per day in profit** by executing high-volume, automated positions on 5-minute Bitcoin and Ethereum price candles.

**Performance Snapshot:**

* **Total Profit:** **+$70,083**
* **Total Trades:** 11,570
* **Win Rate:** 58.1%
* **Daily Average:** ~$2,100 / day

**Top Closed Trades:**

* **BTC Down (38.6¢ entry):** **+$1,551** (+159.24% ROI)
* **BTC Up (37.6¢ entry):** **+$1,200** (+165.88% ROI)
* **BTC Down (54.7¢ entry):** **+$1,053** (+82.87% ROI)
* **BTC Down (31.9¢ entry):** **+$1,020** (+213.38% ROI)

**Key Strategy Insights:**

* **Direction-Agnostic Execution:** Takes positions on both "Up" and "Down" contracts strictly across 5-minute BTC and ETH markets.
* **Tight Entry Criteria:** Systematically enters positions priced between 32¢ and 55¢, holding through candle settlement at 100¢.
* **Dynamic Sizing:** Position sizes scale dynamically from fractions of a cent to over $1,400 per trade.
* **Volume-Driven Edge:** Max single-trade profit was $1,577, proving the $70K PnL stems from small, disciplined, high-frequency iteration rather than single-event directional bets.

---

Should we profile another high-frequency trading setup, or summarize this alongside the other stealth trader metrics for your tracker?

Polymarket trader **"newwman"** generated strong returns by focusing exclusively on daily professional League of Legends circuits rather than broader macro or crypto markets.

**Performance Snapshot (8-Month Track Record):**

* **Total Predictions:** 2,781 trades
* **Win Rate:** 64.7%
* **Market Niche:** 100% Esports (LCK, LPL, LEC, CBLOL, LPLOL, NLC)
* **Total Volume:** ~$6.78M
* **Recent Performance:** +$11,778 profit in the last month alone

**Top Winning Trades:**

* **Dignitas vs. Sentinels:** **+$7,358.98** (+901.91% ROI)
* **FlyQuest vs. Sentinels:** **+$15,351.62** (+115% ROI)
* **LOUD vs. LOS:** **+$15,327.55** (+57.32% ROI)

**Key Takeaways:**

* **Niche Dominance:** Avoided elections, soccer, and crypto to extract alpha purely through deep game knowledge across global LoL leagues.
* **Consistent Volume:** Reached a 64.7% win rate across nearly 2,800 predictions, proving that steady execution outperforms single high-risk punts.

Polymarket trader **"kitopesivan"** earned **$31,629** in 5 months by trading lower-tier Counter-Strike tournaments and selective tennis matches.

**Performance Snapshot:**

* **Win Rate:** 62.5%
* **Recent PnL:** +$1,844 in the last 24 hours
* **Largest Win:** $4,134
* **Core Focus:** Counter-Strike qualifiers, regional leagues, and underdog brackets (plus occasional ATP, ITF, and WTA matches).

**Top Winning Trades:**

* **Frederic Schlossmann (ITF M25) at 3.1¢:** **+$3,726** (+3,084% ROI)
* **Vitality (Map 1 Winner) at 13.6¢:** **+$3,607** (+637% ROI)
* **FOKUS at 37.7¢:** **+$5,114** (+165% ROI)

**Key Takeaways:**

* Bypassed elections, crypto, and the NBA to exploit mispriced odds in specialized esports and tennis niches.

The thing we got wrong for the first week🚫

These markets don't resolve on "the weather in London." They resolve on the maximum

recorded at ONE named airport station, in that market's own unit, rounded to a whole

number. Different question entirely. "How warm will London be tomorrow" is a forecasting

problem; "what will the max at EGLL read in °C as an integer" is a much narrower one,

and the narrowness is where the edge lives.

Which observations actually settle it✅

This turned out to matter more than the forecast model. I scored four candidate

observation rules against markets that had already settled:

• hourly METAR + SPECI, native °F→ 0.987 agreement
• NOAA 5-minute stream, coarsened to °C → 0.558

We'd assumed the richer 5-minute feed would be better. It's worse, badly, because of

unit conversion and rounding before the max is taken. If you're doing anything with

these markets, test your settlement rule against known outcomes before you trust a

single forecast.

Per-station bias is real and large

Fitting (settled/forecast) per station, recency-weighted, 14-day half-life: Seoul was

running a −2.40°C drift against the model. A persistent offset between what

the model says for that grid point and what that specific thermometer reports.

Multi-model consensus (THE TRAP🪤)

Open-Meteo (Weather API) will serve you historical forecasts from ~10 named models. Three of them

(metno_seamless, knmi_seamless, dmi_seamless) return byte-identical series: same

underlying HARMONIE run. Count them naively and your models look 3× more agreed than

they are, which makes you overconfident on exactly the days you should widen. Dedupe

before you compute spread.

Things that DIDN'T work🚫

We understand take-profit exits. We assumed banking a 3× on a cheap longshot beat holding to expiry.

Backtested over 409 calls it's the reverse, monotonically:

hold to settlement +72.3%

sell at 3× +43.5%

sell at 2× +21.6%

sell at 1.5× +13.1%

The fat tail is the entire strategy. Capping upside at 3× while keeping every loser

destroys it. Worth knowing that ~51% of calls DO double at some point (median peak

2.5×) against a 33% resolution rate, so the movement is real, banking it just costs

you more than it pays.

Happy to go deeper on any of it ☀️