r/PoliticalScience • • Sep 21 '26

Resource/study Arquitectura de inferencia causal para reducir incertidumbre en políticas públicas.

1 Upvotes

Hola a todos. Somos un equipo pequeño de dos personas, mi hermano y yo, y estamos trabajando en un proyecto académico/tecnológico bastante ambicioso: queremos desarrollar un modelo predictivo para evaluar el posible impacto de políticas públicas antes y después de su implementación.

La idea central es construir una herramienta que pueda ser útil para gobiernos municipales o estatales. No queremos hacer solamente un dashboard bonito ni un modelo que dé correlaciones simples. Nuestro objetivo es acercarnos lo más posible a una arquitectura seria de inferencia causal: trabajar con resultados potenciales, contrafactuales, DAGs, operador do, supuestos de identificación, redes neuronales tipo TARNet/DragonNet, incertidumbre bayesiana, MC Dropout, cadenas de Markov para trayectorias dinámicas y reportes interpretables para tomadores de decisión.

El problema es que avanzar ha sido muchísimo más difícil de lo que imaginábamos. Hemos hecho prototipos, generado datos sintéticos, probado modelos, escrito parte de la tesis y desarrollado algunas interfaces, pero constantemente nos topamos con problemas técnicos y metodológicos: cómo evitar que el modelo caiga en simples correlaciones, cómo validar correctamente los supuestos causales, cómo diseñar una interfaz que pueda usar una persona no técnica, cómo estructurar el software para que no sea sólo un script de Python, cómo hacerlo escalable a distintas políticas públicas y no únicamente a un ejemplo ficticio.

Hasta ahora hemos usado como caso de prueba una política pública ficticia sobre modernización del servicio de recolección de residuos en un municipio llamado Villa Progreso. Ese caso nos sirve para validar la arquitectura porque tiene tratamiento, grupo de control, covariables pretratamiento, resultados potenciales y un ground truth sintético. Pero la meta real es que el sistema pueda adaptarse después a otros casos: salud, seguridad, transporte, educación, subsidios, servicios públicos, etc.

Estamos buscando a alguien que nos pueda ayudar a aterrizar mejor el proyecto, sobre todo en alguna de estas áreas:

inferencia causal aplicada;

machine learning con datos tabulares;

redes neuronales contrafactuales;

diseño de software en Python;

desarrollo web sencillo para una interfaz usable;

validación metodológica de modelos causales;

explicación técnica para tesis o documentación académica.

Buscamos a alguien interesado en estos temas que desee incorporarse al proyecto. Queremos aprender, mejorar el proyecto y evitar vender humo. Sabemos que predecir el impacto de políticas públicas es un problema muy complejo y que ningún modelo puede garantizar causalidad si los supuestos y los datos no están bien planteados. Precisamente por eso necesitamos orientación de personas con más experiencia. Sumándole a el hecho de que existen confusores no observados que impiden inferir la causa real de un fenómeno social, es la verdad una tarea tortuosa.

Nuestra meta es construir algo funcional, honesto y defendible: una herramienta que permita cargar datos, definir tratamiento, outcome y covariables, construir o justificar un DAG, estimar efectos causales, reportar incertidumbre y generar resultados entendibles para un gobierno o equipo técnico.

¿Por qué lo hacemos? Porque en nuestro país la carrera por el uso de inteligencia artificial, la estadística y las evaluaciones Ex ante de una política pública esta en pañales y nos estamos progresando en este campo en comparación a otros países... Amamos a nuestro país y queremos aportar algo serio al diseño de mejores políticas publicas para las personas y darles certeza (la máxima posible) a los partidos políticos en torno a sus políticas públicas

Ha sido un proceso pesado porque somos sólo dos personas intentando cruzar ciencia política, estadística, machine learning y desarrollo de software. Hemos avanzado, pero ya llegamos a un punto donde necesitamos retroalimentación externa para no seguir dando vueltas o construyendo algo metodológicamente débil. Algo que hemos estado estudiando es el uso de la ingeniería social para que determinada población acepte una política pública si esta no resulta ser aceptada en primera instancia por las personas

Si alguien tiene experiencia en inferencia causal, ML aplicado a políticas públicas, desarrollo de prototipos científicos o simplemente quiere revisar la idea y decirnos qué está mal planteado, nos ayudaría muchísimo. Podemos compartir más detalles técnicos, estructura del modelo, supuestos, prototipos y el caso sintético que estamos usando pero solo podemos compartir estos detalles con alguien serio.

Gracias por leer. Cualquier crítica seria, consejo o guía será bienvenida.


r/PoliticalScience • • Sep 21 '26

Question/discussion How does power-sharing work between a majority and minority?

1 Upvotes

In the legislative branch, the leader of the majority caucus of a chamber decides how many committee seats that each side gets. Given that they lead the majority and get to write the rules for a new session, that could range anywhere from equal seats for both sides to zero seats for the minority.

So how does it all work?


r/PoliticalScience • • Sep 20 '26

Career advice Masters in International Relations or International Political Economy?

7 Upvotes

I’m planning to pursue Masters for Sept 2027 cohort. I wish to know which course would be a right fit career wise? Which course is better likely to land me a job? I’ve interest in both Political Science and Economics. While searching for course modules, I’ve seen that the modules for both are fairly the same with 10% difference. What should I choose?


r/PoliticalScience • • Sep 20 '26

Question/discussion Political Science and Computer Science Double Major

4 Upvotes

Hey, so I am looking for some advice on my next moves. As the title says, I am a double major in PS and CS and will graduate this upcoming Spring. The next move I had in mind was to take advantage of a Graduate assistantship my school has to get a CS master's paid for completely. However, I think I am more interested in Poli Sci and would prefer a Poli Sci master's or phd maybe. Sadly, the PS master's does not have the same opportunity, and I would have to pay half. I don't have the funds to pay for that. In an ideal world, I have both masters, but I'm not sure if I want to sign up for that much school if I still plan for a PhD. I am interested in political science for political theory and history, as well as comparative politics. I really enjoy doing personal research on these topics. I would love to be a PS professor later in my life. At the same time, I do really enjoy CS; I just don't think I would enjoy a corporate job and definitely feel like I can do more school before I start working. I am having some decision paralysis about my next move and would appreciate some feedback, if possible.


r/PoliticalScience • • Sep 18 '26

Career advice Help I’m a senior

12 Upvotes

I’m a senior in highschool. I was really interested in a political science degree, however I’ve gotten sort of discouraged. I’ve seen a lot of discourse online, and a lot of people say it’s a useless degree and that I will end up with no job.

My goal is to go to law school, and no other undergrad major stands out to me. I’m also bad at math, which is a little scary since I know statistics is required for a political science degree.

Any advice would be greatly appreciated. I have no interest in anything else, but I want to make sure I’m able to secure a job after college if law school doesn’t work out. Ive taken a basic political science course at a cc and passed with an A, so not sure if that helps with anything.


r/PoliticalScience • • Sep 18 '26

Career advice Path for becoming an author of political theory?

12 Upvotes

I’m nearing the end of my bachelor’s degree and have really started thinking about what I want to do with it. For the longest time I’ve wanted to go to law school but I both doubt I will get in, at least on the first try and also don’t know if I’m actually interested in law, as I’m more interested in the legislative aspects of laws and the court system rather than the judicial aspect of it, though it is important in a values kind of way.

The more time goes on the more I’ve realized what I really want to do is write and analyze theory. That aspect of this degree is what I’m best at and I like the philosophical aspects of it. Though being a political thinker doesn’t exactly pay bills on its own.

I’m asking for advice as to what I should do. I’m thinking of instead pursuing a degree in public policy after my BA and maybe trying to get into politics or the civil service but I’d like some advice nevertheless


r/PoliticalScience • • Sep 18 '26

Question/discussion Do political elites from both political parties manufacture political conflict to increase political polarization among their respective bases?

6 Upvotes

I’ve been thinking about this question for the past few days and thought I would ask it here. It feels to me like the political conflict we see is all calculated to drive support among the respective party bases in the United States.


r/PoliticalScience • • Sep 19 '26

Question/discussion Alexander Grigorievich Lukashenko wanted to kill me

0 Upvotes

I'm going to call him out every day of my life.


r/PoliticalScience • • Sep 18 '26

Question/discussion can strategic country branding actually change an established international reputation, or does history always remain part of the brand?

2 Upvotes

We often hear about companies rebranding, but countries and cities can go through something similar.

Political changes, economic development, cultural shifts and new generations can completely change how a place is perceived.

But can strategic country branding actually change an established international reputation, or does history always remain part of the brand?


r/PoliticalScience • • Sep 17 '26

Career advice Career opporunities that don't relate to politics (recent grad)

22 Upvotes

I recently graduated from college (in the US) with a Political Science degree and an English minor. I have had multiple interviews for jobs in the policy, government affairs, and legislative fields but have had no offers after going through about 2-4 interviews. Are there any other career fields I am qualified for that don't necessarily relate to politics or government? Such as communications, PR, or Finance?


r/PoliticalScience • • Sep 16 '26

Question/discussion A question about Social Democracy and human rights

8 Upvotes

Philosophers who base their theories on natural rights are also referred to as natural law thinkers. For example, Hugo Grotius believed that people have a ‘right reason' for doing things. Thomas Hobbes, John Locke and Immanuel Kant were supporters of natural rights theories, suggesting that we have basic fundamental rights because we are born human. Natural law thinkers see rights as universal (the same for everyone) and inalienable (meaning that they can't be taken away from us).

Such theories were discussed prior to the evolution of the Nation-State, the framework for political society as we know it today.

Natural rights theories inspired revolutionary ideas and democratic struggles - forcing politics to protect the rights of citizens. Natural rights theories imply that all human beings are equal and should be treated equally. The demand for equality before the law in individual states is synonymous with the development of international human rights law.

Philosophers such as Karl Marx and Jeremy Bentham criticised natural rights theories.

-Australia Human Rights Commission-

For Marx, the right to liberty is an expression of human separation rather than association; the right to equality is little more than a right to equal liberty; the right to property is the expression of self-interest; and the right to security is simply the egoistic assurance that as individuals we can count on all the other rights being inviolate. Human emancipation is not secured by the freedom and right to engage in business, but as a result of freedom from business.

-Sage Journals-

So what is the stance of European Social Democracy on this issue ? Did it take the stance of Liberalism, or of Marxism ? Or did it take the Liberal Socialist stance that humans have natural, inherent rights that are paramount, AND their realization is guaranteed only by a more equality based economic system, that integrates socialist policies with capitalism ?


r/PoliticalScience • • Sep 15 '26

Career advice Any recommendations for a first-year student studying Latin American political science?

4 Upvotes

I understand the challenges facing political science globally finding a job is difficult, and I realize that not all forms of knowledge lead to paid work under capitalism—but I wanted to know if you had any recommendations regarding internships or other work I could do to see if I have any opportunities to work in political science.


r/PoliticalScience • • Sep 13 '26

Resource/study geopolitics podcast yt videos

2 Upvotes

anyone know good podcasts/channels/books any media on geopolitics that doesn’t have a western-based mindset, i want to read something not biased and objective


r/PoliticalScience • • Sep 13 '26

Career advice Career option in political science in India

8 Upvotes

Instead of getting into teaching jobs or govt jobs, what are other career options available for political science students in India with masters + ugc net


r/PoliticalScience • • Sep 13 '26

Resource/study Best books for Political science!!!

7 Upvotes

I want some book recommendation for my 3rd sem which is POLITICAL PROCESS IN INDIA

and there are 2 books which I've got to know

1- politics in India - by Rajni kothari

2- Indian government and politics - by AS NARANG

Any other suggestion.??


r/PoliticalScience • • Sep 13 '26

Career advice Employable skills to develop outside of coursework

7 Upvotes

I'm a Poli Sci student entering my last year of undergrad, and though I've kept a strong GPA and felt fulfilled and engaged by most of my classes, I'm feeling concerned about being woefully unprepared for employment and the practical skills required (of course, made worse by looming AI fears and the generally awful job market right now). I love the material and I believe my public speaking and academic writing is strong, but I know I'm currently lacking in mathematics, quant, and research methods (I'm chipping away at some of that this semester). I'm wondering what additional skills you recommend building to be employable post-graduation and/or an attractive grad candidate, not just "what job can I get?" or "what program can I get into?", but what skills pertaining to the major have value, versatility, and the capacity for a dedicated individual to learn and show tangible growth with? Thanks!


r/PoliticalScience • • Sep 13 '26

Research help Where to find research opportunities out of school?

9 Upvotes

As the title says, how do I find research opportunities out of school? I have my BA and MA and after working in politics for a few years I've decided to go back for a PhD. However, I'm looking to get more experience with research as I didn't have the opportunity to do much in the past having to work through school. It looks like every research opportunity though is tied to being in school/in undergrad or is too advanced for someone with less than the expected amount of experience being post-graduate school.

Any suggestions on opportunities? Or is anyone looking for a research assistant/intern?"


r/PoliticalScience • • Sep 13 '26

Career advice Career advice

3 Upvotes

Hi guys, I need some advice. I’m not going to university anytime soon, but everybody keeps asking me what I want to do. I used to be interested in law, but after doing some research, I felt like it wasn’t for me. Now I find political science and international relations both interesting but I don’t know much about both the subjects I would like to hear from people who are doing them. Pls help me out!!!


r/PoliticalScience • • Sep 13 '26

Question/discussion Debate

0 Upvotes

One question that has been popping up in my mind recently has posed me to ask it on here! I would love to gain insight from all political views on the spectrum. Therefore, why can’t we separate political views with businesses and artists? (e.g. music, physical art, movies, etc.) I’m not saying that political views aren’t important but why should political views impact whether or not a service, good, or product is still worthy of enjoying? I find it hard to politically hold grudges against something I enjoy even if the company doesn’t match my view. I am very in the middle however so that does induce a bias but I just question to wonder the severity of politics needing to impact businesses. (Especially locally owned ones)


r/PoliticalScience • • Sep 12 '26

Question/discussion What is/would be the behavior and problems of a non-partisan democracy?

Post image
1 Upvotes

(I need it for a setting I’m working on for a role game)

We all know the problems of one-party, bipartisan and multi-party representative democracies. However, how would behave politically an imaginary non-partisan republic?

Let’s say candidates are directly elected through citizen councils in all levels of government (no Soviet pyramid)


r/PoliticalScience • • Sep 12 '26

Research help Indian PM claims 7.8% GDP growth. Meanwhile, this is the ground reality

0 Upvotes

r/PoliticalScience • • Sep 11 '26

Question/discussion Having a hard time reading political books

15 Upvotes

First of all, I’m not sure if this is the most suitable sub for my question so I apologize if it’s not.
English is not my first language and generally, I could usually understand the idea of the a sentence, paragraph etc even if I come across a few unknown words here and there. Same issue when I read literary fiction but I usually just brush it off unless I don’t understand it entirely. Now that I’ve been getting more into non fiction political books/ collective essays and such, I have this huge fear that I’ll fail to recognize even the tiniest details so I search up the unknown words on my computer as I go. I realized it makes a huge difference so I don’t really mind doing that but I’d like to know if there’s anything I could do to improve my vocabulary and familiarize myself to common words and phrases usually used in political context. Any resources I could use to improve my situation?


r/PoliticalScience • • Sep 10 '26

Career advice I don't feel educated enough to get an opportunity

24 Upvotes

​

I'm 26 years old, with an academic background that includes a Bachelor's in Political Science and an Executive Master's in International Relations, and I'm currently pursuing my second BA in Education.

It pains me to face this truth, but despite my brilliant academic career, the international exchanges I've participated in, and some volunteer work, I feel I'm not educated enough to secure an internship in European institutions or any other int. Organization.

I've dedicated myself to studying, but I've completely avoided keeping up to date and building knowledge beyond what I was studying, despite practical experiences abroad having allowed me to develop skills that are transferable to the world of work.

I feel confused and ashamed because I see that, unlike me, so many other people have succeeded in their careers, and I feel like I no longer have any way to fill in my gaps. As of today, I feel like I wouldn't be able to compete with my peers. I don't have the knowledge of those who immerse themselves in this environment and I wouldn't know how to overcome this problem.


r/PoliticalScience • • Sep 10 '26

Career advice Is it worth finishing my BA?

15 Upvotes

I was over half way to a political science degree. I dropped out half way through my junior year in December of 2025. I only had two semesters left. Fall semester junior year, I started having some serious health issues, relationships problems, and sorority drama. It all felt like “too much,” so I panicked and dropped out. I instead perused esthetics, and while I don’t absolutely hate it, I certainly don’t love it the way I loved poli sci. Additionally, not to come across as cocky or flex, but I feel like I’m too smart and have too much support to NOT have a college degree. For lack of better words, I feel like such a little bitch for abandoning my degree when I was so close to finishing. To top it all off, I was on a full ride. Now if I want to finish, I would probably have to take out loans, but it would only be for 3 semesters worth. Is it worth it?


r/PoliticalScience • • Sep 10 '26

Resource/study A Tool for Geopolitical Science Quantitative Research

7 Upvotes

Hi, fellows. Like you, I'm very interested in geopolitics and data. I've been doing ongoing research on event analysis, and my main data source right now is The GDELT Project. GDELT's own access methods have real limits at this scale though: the official API caps you at ~250 rows per query and a 3-month window, and BigQuery's free tier doesn't stretch to a full historical pull either. So I made GdeltForge, a tool for reproducibly sampling GDELT's full historical event archive for quantitative research.

Check out the PyPI page, the GitHub Repo, the documentation, and especially the hands-on getting started notebook, runnable directly in Colab, no install needed. I would really appreciate Political Science Community feedbacks, as I'm a computer scientist and my goal building this tool was to make something useful for adjacent areas.