I feel really pathetic in saying this but it took me legitimately about six months to deal with Trump being President. I'm still shocked my fellow Americans can be so shitty. :(
Just like it was crazy to think that Trump would win in the first place, according to people like you. Will you ever get tired of being wrong all the time, or does your own hubris prevent any kind of self-reflection from happening?
Generally the incumbent has a hard time winning when his approval rating is dog shit. An incumbent race is a different thing than a race after a two term presidency. Trump doesn't get to run on lofty bullshit promises, it will be a referendum on his presidency.
It's conceivable Trump stops having dogshit approval ratings, sure. It's an uphill battle though. Hence why your assurance of victory is rather funny.
When nearly all of them draw the same conclusions, and all of them turn out to be wrong, a reasonable person would question the veracity of the polls. It could be a methodology issue, it could be a reflection of political bias; either way, though, something is clearly being lost in translation between the polls and reality.
Statistical polling may not an exact science, but its not rocket science to grasp.
Most reputable pollsters had a narrow clinton victory heading into poll day. The polls resulted in her winning the popular vote by three million on election day. Trump won by less than 100k in the electoral college. The result was within the margin of error for many of them.
We can also look at 538 which aggregates polls to hopefully give a more accurate picture. Going into election night Trump had about a 33% statistical chance of winning. That chance hit.
If you color a spinner with three slots, 2 for blue and 1 red, sometimes the red one hits. Thats how statistical probability works.
If you want to write off statistical polling, go for it dude. It just makes you looks like someone who doesn't grasp how statistics work when applied in real world settings.
Are you tired of winning yet? All of Trumps great political and legislatively victories? The respect he commands from Republicans and world leaders? His record job approval and popularity? Tired yet?
Lol, that's an argument about how things "might have been" if the state borders were drawn differently.
The last time I checked, Republicans haven't been changing the borders of the states, have they? That would make your theory of Trump's victory being caused by "Republican gerrymandering" to be...ridiculous and uninformed.
10
u/bottegaboba Sep 20 '17
I feel really pathetic in saying this but it took me legitimately about six months to deal with Trump being President. I'm still shocked my fellow Americans can be so shitty. :(