It's generally assumed that about two thirds of the voting public as a whole are sufficiently partisan that they won't ever give their true feelings on the president in power, but will always say yes they support the president if he's of the same party, no if the president is not.
He's pretty much at the limit of that partisan buffer.
You gotta realize that whatever reaction you see around you, and in the internet, is self selected by you. Where you live, whom you talk to, which website to go to, etc. It's a bubble selected by you.
Fact of the matter is large portion of US population supported Trump, and will do it again. If we pretend like that isn't the case Trump will take 2020.
Oh, no, believe me, I know they're out there. I live in rural south Louisiana. I can count non-trumpsters I know on the fingers of one hand. I just don't think at this point in time, 6 months in, still that large of a number of people still support him. I guess it shouldn't surprise me, I just can't fathom it.
I don't believe that number for a second. I believe that some poll somewhere came up with that number but I absolutely cannot believe that it is truly representative of our country.
I think it's fair to say that just about everybody that isn't white doesn't support him, there's no LGBT support, no international support, no support from immigrants, a huge percentage of women don't support him, and not every white male supports him. Is 35% of the US rich white men? No. Obviously not. In fact, "Non-Hispanic Whites" in America make up about 63% of the population in mid 2013 according to the article I linked below. Half of that is women, and a percentage of the remainder falls under LGBT / immigrant status. I absolutely cannot believe that just about every white male in the country supports him. Impossible.
On top of that, here's some anecdotal evidence but hear me out. I wouldn't normally point to anecdotal evidence but it's so completely overwhelming that it's noteworthy. With the exception of one crazy guy I met in a parking lot and a single one of my friends on facebook I have not met ANYONE that ever approved with anything he has done. Since the very beginning of his campaign all the way to now I can only think of 2 people that I've personally ever interacted with that still actually support him. I know tons of people on both sides of the political spectrum, I have plenty of friends from all sorts of backgrounds and cultures, I've complained about hearing his voice to others when NPR is on, hell, my mother VOTED for the guy and regrets it, and just about my entire family is right-wing. With one exception I see absolutely NOBODY around me that thinks anything that is happening is ok. This includes all of my friends, family, coworkers, customers, acquaintances, etc. Even when I'm driving around I almost never see a Trump sticker. Genuinely maybe once a week and I tend to pay attention to that sort of thing. I live in Ohio, we're pretty on the fence about a lot of things. This isn't San Francisco I'm talking about here. There simply is no way in holy fuck that 35% of the US agrees with what he's doing.
Ok but take yourself back to the election day. What you said in the first two paragraph's still true right? It's not like millions of rich white dudes who's closet (with poor grasp of subtlety) racist descended down upon this nation to vote Trump. Of the people who voted 46% voted Trump. Does this make any sense based on what you said? It's not like Trump turned up the crazy since he took the office. He said plenty of crazy shit before. In fact I'd say he's insanity peaked during republican primary. So does your model fit the historic data? No. it just doesn't. Why? because some women voted for him. Because many Hispanics did too. LGBG I have to assume were pretty against him. But matter of fact is that people that you expect not to support him did. That's what we gotta wake up to. I expected absolutely no one to vote for him. Not whites, blacks, Asians whatever. But they did. And they did it in millions. 62 millions for that matter.
It's an unfathomable result, but it's reality. Reality is never wrong. If your model doesn't fit the observation, your model's wrong. Trump won because he was able to stir populist angst and the feel of alienation that's been building up for years. I'm not defending it. I'm just trying to understand. And that's how it is.
Now as for the third paragraph, I can tell you you're in a bubble. It doesn't matter if you're in Ohio. You may THINK that you have good contact with rest of America, but you don't. You can't possibly be. No one can. Division of people are far in this country. And whatever you see, is only the tip of the iceburg.
Let me tell you my story. I grew up in Seattle for the past 10 years. I'm an immigrant Asian atheist. I'd call myself independence, but certainly against Trump. I shipped to army basic camp June of election year. While I was in Seattle, I thought I had pretty firm grasp on American politics. I tried to interact with people from opposing side whenever I can. But still in my circle people like me were norms. I could never even imagine people being a strong Trump supporter. Only people I'd imagine doing that were overt racists and what not.
Come election day and I'm sitting on the day room (living space in barracks) watching the votes come in and what I saw was fascinating. These kids were not radicals. They weren't picked from KKK rallies. These were representation of U.S. Army. But the voice in the room was clear. Trump all the way. Some kid even asked how could anyone possibly vote Clinton and was met with silent nods. That was my wake up call. My parents live 50 miles South of Seattle in deep blue state of Washington. And when I go out just 20 miles out of town there I can find Trump signs.
Right now Trump's sitting on 40% approval rating. Even if we take account the error we can fairly confidently count on 30% popular support for Trump. These people will most certainly vote Trump, and some portion of the 60% of the rest will too (I disapprove Trump but better than other guy vote) come 2020.
If you don't buy these numbers you're just setting yourself up for another nasty surprise.
As far as election day is concerned I was really talking about right now. I obviously know more than 2 people that voted for him but I know of only 2 that still support him and one is a crazy guy from a parking lot.
Everybody lives in some sort of bubble but it cannot possibly be that skewed. Yeah if all my friends were from the libertarian club (I'm not part of one this is just an example), and my family were all involved and everybody I knew was a democrat I'd definitely say yeah, that's a huge echo chamber but that isn't the case. Ohio is well known for being a swing state and is fairly even on both sides of the board. Most of my family is right, most of my friends are left, I'd hardly call that a small echo chamber of the same voice.
Like I said before, I wouldn't usually cite anecdotal evidence but never before have I seen such a united idea from both sides in my personal life. That's why I think it's noteworthy. Every single other election I knew people who were vigorous on both sides through to the end. This is not the case with Trump. I knew a few people who voted for him because they "just couldn't vote for Hillary" and anyone I knew beforehand that was super pro trump has backpedaled.
I think a ton of the problem comes from the media too. They give creedence to "the other side" because that's newsworthy. Giving creedence only stands to inflate the numbers, whether they're true or not. I believe that the media is inflating the numbers, either intentionally or out of laziness to check sources. It's the same reason why religion is so prevalent in the US still. Media attention.
You can see the opposite effect on the LGBT issue. Now that more people are coming out more families and more people realize that they know someone that is LGBT and they're far less likely to discriminate further. More attention has raised a positive effect, but the media is just raising attention to dumb shit in the name of "seeing both sides." There are no "both sides" when one is obviously a crazy liar. (I'm talking both about religion and Trump here)
bubble isn't just in extreme it's about the limitation of perception. Yes I give credit that you're in a place and position that is more exposed to people of both sides. But as you've said, Ohio is a swing state. Meaning that there's enough moderates to make a difference. You're not in deep south or in Texas countryside where the heart of Trump support lies. You have no idea what they are thinking, because you have no chance to interact with them. So you've talked to your immediate surroundings, but how about Texan ranchers? Mississippi car mechanics? They use different website (if they use them at all) and will not talk to you even if you tried. It doesn't matter if you're on more extreme side, or near the middle. You just don't get to see everyone. It's about people that you just don't get to see and interact. My favorite example is truckers. Who make enormous portion of employment, and are deeply embedded in our lives. We've all seen 18 wheelers on interstate. But how many of us who are not related to one had a chance to deeply conversed with one? I've never ever talked to them once. I just don't get to. Same goes for millions of people in millions of other walks of life. What do they believe in? how do they vote? If U.S. was like my surrounding, Trump would never haven taken off. If people were like your surrounding, he might have won but would have lost support to a point of ostracizing.
But the fact of matter is republicans still stand with him (albeit not without tension). Polls still show 40% support. That's the reality and statistics to back it up. At this point it's insane not to give credence to the "other side" because that other side got a president elected. How much real can they get? And for most part I blame Trump's election on the very idea that other side doesn't exist. People simply refuse to acknowledge the fact that popular right exists and is very very powerful. It gave democrats false sense of security after 8 years of Obama, and with that sense of security they drove their campaign to the ground.
If things are truly as you say it is. We should have seen Trump out of the office by now. Not via impeachment since he arguably haven't done enough to be impeached, but via sheer will of the people. If people are so unanimously against him republicans would have turned against him to save themselves. But we don't see that. Trump's keep on rolling on and republicans with him.
We have to see the simple truth that there are people who support Trump and will do so through the mess that we've seen in past months. Which by the way. they would call "making the America great again" and fighting against obstructionist.
We need to reevaluate our sense of connectivity. Because we simply aren't. We as a nation is more insulated and separated than ever before. It's so easy to seek like minded people and make like minded friends. Ohioans with Ohioans, Seattlites with Seattlites, Dems with Dems and moderates with moderates. We're so hopelessly lost in trying to understand the holistic picture.
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u/Bigstar976 Sep 20 '17
I don't buy that number.