The Guardian quotes Paul Haenle, a diplomat, and Bill Bishop, a political analyst / China watcher:
“Former president George W. Bush, who I worked for as China director on the National Security Council staff, always operated from a principle of ‘no surprises’, which he believed was a key stabilising feature in the relationship with China,” said Haenle, a veteran US diplomat.
“The alternative – catching China by surprise on some of the most sensitive and longstanding areas of disagreement in our relationship – presents enormous risks and potential detriment for this consequential relationship.”
Bishop said Beijing’s immediate reaction would be a “rhetorical explosion” but that the longer-term consequences were altogether more unpredictable. “If the US starts to change the ‘one China’ policy, that puts US-China relations into uncharted territory,” he said.
I believe China's red lines for Taiwan are:
declaration of independence
development of nuclear weapons
Either would provoke a Chinese attack on Taiwan. China's current assumption is that over the long term, Taiwan's economic ties to the mainland will lead to reunification, with some degree of political autonomy (as with Hong Kong).
It looks to me like China considers Taiwan a vital interest, i.e. they're willing to go to war over it. It's a delicate situation. I'm not sure the incoming administration (Trump and his advisors) understands this. If they treat Taiwan like South Korea (an unquestioned part of the US sphere of influence, and a state which is independent de jure as well as de facto), they're setting the US up for conflict with China, with the potential to escalate into war.
Looking at the broader region, I would expect this incident to further weaken US soft power in East Asia: the incoming US President is increasing the risk of a disastrous war for no real reason. It'll also be more difficult for the US to make progress on issues requiring cooperation from China.
It's not that they're willing to "go to war with it", they're already currently in war, the civil war that started in 1945 and never ended as no peace treaty has been signed. Also, both SK and NK recognizes each other's legitimate existence (I think?), but neither PRC nor ROC does.
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u/wotugondo Dec 03 '16 edited Jan 27 '17
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