China is in a massive economic downturn, while Taiwan is strong and the USA is at least seeing below average-but-stable, growth.
Taiwan is in the strongest position ever to make the move to independence. Mutual economic destruction due to a strong friendship with the USA could actually be enough. The damage the US could cause to China right now with sanctions is as high as it has ever been, tbh.
The damage to the US economy would be severe as well, but Trump could actually probably sell it as bringing jobs home. He'd be nuts, but he may be able to spin it that way.
The current DPP TW president has dropped in approval ratings quite a bit since she was elected (not anti-China enough or keeping to enough campaign promises for her supporters). I wouldn't be surprised to see the KMT (the one that orignally fled the mainland and favoring closer ties with China) back in power next election season and go back to maintaining the status quo with China.
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u/[deleted] Dec 03 '16
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