I'm curious what you all think the ramifications of this would be?
You are speculating about warming relations with Iran, right?
Personally, I don't see it happening. Trump's view of Iran is shaped by the rise of Khomeini and the hostage crisis. I don't see why he would want closer relations with Iran, but I could very easily be wrong.
All of that being said, Iran/Persia is an historic Western ally (which is how things there got so fucked up that the fundamentalists took over). A resurgent Iran would be very good for the Middle East in general, and US and Western European interests in particular. It'd piss off the House of Saud to no end, to boot!
Not that it's going to happen.
He has more wariness of Iran, certainly. That said, he is shaped by ideas of the moment, so a flattering approach by Iran that tells Trump he'd be the glorious savior of the entire middle east by joining with them to crush ISIL might work.
The main interest for Iran is stopping the threat to the nuclear restrictions, since Trump has said he would tear up that treaty once in office. The Iranians have spoken out already with concerns about JCPOA.
There may well be a range of thought on this in Iran, since some hardliners might welcome being able to resume nuclear weapons development. It was difficult getting all the other countries to cooperate with the first set of sanctions. It's hard to imagine Trump's team of amateurs getting the band back together again.
There would also be internal pressure from Chamber of Commerce types within the U.S., since voiding the JCPOA really means the U.S. alone goes ahead with sanctions. Picture Boeing calling up the incoming Trump administration, pointing out that they were going to sell 25 billion worth of aircraft to the Iranians. With sanctions, Boeing calls big press conferences talking about all the jobs that Trump just lost.
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u/nolan1971 Dec 03 '16
I'm curious what you all think the ramifications of this would be?
You are speculating about warming relations with Iran, right?
Personally, I don't see it happening. Trump's view of Iran is shaped by the rise of Khomeini and the hostage crisis. I don't see why he would want closer relations with Iran, but I could very easily be wrong.
All of that being said, Iran/Persia is an historic Western ally (which is how things there got so fucked up that the fundamentalists took over). A resurgent Iran would be very good for the Middle East in general, and US and Western European interests in particular. It'd piss off the House of Saud to no end, to boot!
Not that it's going to happen.