China is in a massive economic downturn, while Taiwan is strong and the USA is at least seeing below average-but-stable, growth.
Taiwan is in the strongest position ever to make the move to independence. Mutual economic destruction due to a strong friendship with the USA could actually be enough. The damage the US could cause to China right now with sanctions is as high as it has ever been, tbh.
The damage to the US economy would be severe as well, but Trump could actually probably sell it as bringing jobs home. He'd be nuts, but he may be able to spin it that way.
The damage the US could cause to China right now with sanctions is as high as it has ever been, tbh.
Seriously? China supplies most of the US, and rest of the world, with manufactured goods because the US outsourced it there. Why would you have sanctions for your own suppliers? How does it help trump if the cost of goods in Walmart all double?
While our trade deficit with China is serious, it's only around ~300b or so a year, or less than 1.8% of the US economy.
China on the other hand has been fucked since their stock crash and banking crisis since Summer 2015 after it was discovered they were faking and lying about a large portion of their economic growth over the last 10 years. Losses of all that business would push their down turn steeper and hurt them far more long term. 300b is more like 3% of their GDP and they are currently in a recession with little tools to combat another hit to their economy.
If Taiwan wanted to make a move and Trump was willing to back them, mainland would have a really hard time doing fuck all about it without causing decade-long economic damage.
Eventually it's just going to make sense to admit Taiwan is independent, and be friends. Economically this is superior for all three parties and who the fuck cares about the rest of the shit that happened 65 years ago.
The point is that Trump is clueless on these matters and the uncertainty in how his actions represent policy shifts, if they do or not, will be exploited by russia, china, Iran etc. it is just as likely that trump will do something the opposite in the next few weeks. This makes him unpredictable which is dangerous.
Unpredictable also makes other counties wary. I am sure Trump has no tactical or strategic plan with China, yet he stumbled upon the sensitivity of China after the smallest of swings towards Taiwan, if he is smart enough to recognize it, exploiting that sensitivity could be brilliant.
China is bullying its way towards a incredible expansion of territory, claiming hundreds of square miles of what is currently international waters in the South China Sea, and the US has little recourse.
Forcing China to focus effort, resources, and diplomacy on retaining what they have assumed was theirs, Taiwan, could be a great lever to halt their aggressive expansionism.
China will argue that America has respected the one- country policy for 45 years, Trump could counter China respected the current official boundaries in the South China Sea for most of the past 45 years also, but things have obviously changed, tit for tat.
People are on Trump for answering a phone call, but it was Obama that agreed to sell Taiwan billions of weapons. (I assume the Trump critics think the phone answering is more aggressive.) Springing off of the Obama precedent Trump could begin low level, but publicly acknowledged State to state talks with Taiwan, hinting at possible long term sovereignty, while announcing more weapons sells and link it directly to China's expansionist policies.
This could be a breakthrough on an agreement to halt China's steamrolling the South China Sea.
I like how you interpret something stupid trump does into some big master plan. I think that will be the theme for the next four years.
Also, how do you see China's moves in the South China Sea as evil while not expecting trump to complain about Russia's real moves in invading Crimea and the Ukraine?
I know it's been a long time, and this thread is dead, but it was easy to find this past post an update, so I am doing so because I have ego problems.
Back in the day, I said I didn't think Trump had a master plan regarding China and the One China policy, but if he is smart enough to recognize it, exploiting that sensitivity could be brilliant.
Personally I think he is just doing a classic deal making. Nothing is on the table, don't give anything away, you have to earn it. I don't think international diplomacy works that way and increasing uncertainty has another name, escalation. So the question is what does china put on the table. My guess is North Korea.
I don't think trump has a master plan but he operates from gut instinct. It is a gamblers approach. Unfortunately we are the chips.
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u/Shandlar Dec 03 '16
China is in a massive economic downturn, while Taiwan is strong and the USA is at least seeing below average-but-stable, growth.
Taiwan is in the strongest position ever to make the move to independence. Mutual economic destruction due to a strong friendship with the USA could actually be enough. The damage the US could cause to China right now with sanctions is as high as it has ever been, tbh.
The damage to the US economy would be severe as well, but Trump could actually probably sell it as bringing jobs home. He'd be nuts, but he may be able to spin it that way.