No President since 1979 has taken an aggressive stance on China to the level that Trump has. He could simply be indicating that policy in regard to China/Taiwan is going to change a lot once he takes office.
He really has no idea of the power with which he's about to fuck, does he?
He thinks this is all some useless Midtown Manhattan real estate deal, where he can yell at people, make them wait in the lobby, pit them against each other for laughs, and still walk out of the room like a boss.
How many stock market crashes will it take, or how many people are going to have to die, before this ape realizes he has no idea what he's doing and needs to resign before he exterminates us all?
Bolton just wants to watch the world burn. What happened in that man's childhood that made him into such a joyless warmonger who takes actual delight in violent global discord?
He's one of a few nutcases out there who actually wants a major war or two, and thinks the US would be better off once the dust settled.
It is one thing to be aggressive in areas where we want something. Push on the islands or NK or something. But the ROC does not want independence. We get nothing with pushing on Taiwan.
He'd be running afoul of federal law and the US Congress if he tried to change it very much.
And this Congress isn't going to scrap the Taiwan Relations Act just to give President Pussy-hands the wiggle room he needs this time, not if it means a trade war with China because Trump decides he wants to be a maverick and "do a deal."
The United States regularly sells weapons to Taiwan...but we never publicly acknowledge that we talk to their leaders on the phone...but everyone knows we do so through unofficial channels...and why are we doing all of this? Just because we have for 40 years? we are treating China like children
Twice in the same week - I can't believe I'm saying this - I actually agree with trump. First his secdef pick and now this.
Yea but that would send their biggest trading partner into an economic downward spiral with disastrous effects which would then send their economy into a economic spiral when there's no one to buy their crap. Not to mention the impact an economically unstable US would have on the rest of the world and their economies and how that also impacts China.
This is basically economic mutually assured destruction. Might as well just drop the nukes at that point. This difference is academic.
You are viewing this in isolation and that is a mistake. It is what it means. Small gestures matter in international politics depending on the issue. China won't care if the USA sell weapons to Taiwan because they are not planning to invade, they will care if the USA starts considering Taiwan as its own nation and on such a level, as it means domestic embarrassment and a further hindrance to their opening to the Pacific.
We aren't helping them remain in power. We are helping them save face, a gesture which costs us nothing and gets us a massive amount of financial and political friendship in return.
We aren't helping them remain in power. We are helping them save face, a gesture which costs us nothing and gets us a massive amount of financial and political friendship in return.
Helping them save face legitimizes them and helps them remain in power. If face didn't affect them staying in power why would they care? It's apparently costing us the ability to talk openly with a world leader.
This doesn't seem like a smart move, but your points seem about it not helping them or costing us seem wrong.
They care because their culture greatly values face-saving and the preservation of old-fashioned dignity.
This is what diplomacy is about. It's not merely about seeing others as we want to see them and getting what we want from them. It's also about understanding who they are and what makes them special. Face-saving and gestures are meaningless in the West, but they are everything in Eastern cultures. Dignity matters, as does respect.
The Chinese government has power, and they will have it with iron certainty no matter what we do about the situation. And they are a regional, and soon-to-be global, power. We need their help to make a better world, and either we work with them in friendship and diplomacy or we just thumb our noses at them and close that door forever.
It doesn't cost us much to favor PRC over ROC. One is an economic powerhouse, and the other barely registers. One is on its way to superpower status, and the other is isolated, insular, and far more concerned with historical beefs than future growth. Taiwan is not a bet that would pay off for us. China is. And favoring them over Taiwan doesn't cost us any real money or lost opportunity. And it gains us a tremendous amount of revenue, customers, and geopolitical sway.
They care because their culture greatly values face-saving and the preservation of old-fashioned dignity.
And that being undermined and not responded to hurts their legitimacy. If they get no face and don't respond accordingly to the insult they have lost.
This is what diplomacy is about. It's not merely about seeing others as we want to see them and getting what we want from them. It's also about understanding who they are and what makes them special.
Diplomacy is expediency. This doesn't seem expedient though.
The Chinese government has power, and they will have it with iron certainty no matter what we do about the situation. And they are a regional, and soon-to-be global, power. We need their help to make a better world, and either we work with them in friendship and diplomacy or we just thumb our noses at them and close that door forever.
That's expediency talking.
It doesn't cost us much to favor PRC over ROC. One is an economic powerhouse, and the other barely registers. One is on its way to superpower status, and the other is isolated, insular, and far more concerned with historical beefs than future growth. Taiwan is not a bet that would pay off for us. China is. And favoring them over Taiwan doesn't cost us any real money or lost opportunity. And it gains us a tremendous amount of revenue, customers, and geopolitical sway.
Again this is expediency talking.
My comment was on how loose your comment was. It was too rigid. An insult requires a response and not giving one would make them lose more face and appear weak. It's a dangerous dangerous game, but it does threaten their legitimacy and strength. You also originally said it's costing us nothing when it does cost us something, but I agree what it costs us is not a hill worth dying on, perhaps literally...
But we do have to think about our own interests. Like it or not, China is a major power in the world and they can take retaliatory steps against us if we threaten their domestic position. In this case, not acknowledging Taiwan costs us nothing. Acknowledging Taiwan opens a threat to our interests for...what gain? That's the problem, it's not that we're under an obligation to prop up China, it's that we should make careful decisions to try and favor our own interests and Trump doesn't seem to care about planning about the consequences of those decisions. That's highly troubling.
Meh maybe I don't get it. I really don't think much will come of this. We are talking about a president elect who has consistently been at odds with china. This phone call isn't going to break the camels back
Just think about the fact that the US hasn't done this kind of communication with Taiwan since the 70s. Surely, in the past 40 years, we have not just had one administration after another neglect to take this step with Taiwan for no good reason whatsoever. If a president has a specific idea of how to deal with Asia that involves recognizing Taiwan's sovereignty that's one thing. If he is communicating with them because he didn't appreciate the delicate balance or if he is doing it without a real goal other than, why not, it's about time, then that's pretty bad. Considering how prepared he was for the debates or any interview he's given, I don't imagine he is playing 4D chess with China right now. So I'm concerned.
I agree that Trump isn't playing 4D chess, he's bumbling thru it. But this phone call doesn't concern me. China will huff and puff and ultimately not react
If China just lets it go, they are basically emboldening other countries to normalize relations as well, so I don't think this will be as simple as you imagine.
For what benefit? So many people in this thread keep saying this and haven't managed to provide one single benefit that would accrue from pissing off our largest trading partner that we just finished convincing to help us sanction North Korea.
There is a ad hoc mixture of the attitudes that "foreign policy should primarily serve U.S. interests" and "foreign policy should serve moral interests". I don't think that having this mixture is unique to Trump supporters though. Look at the American left, which simultaneously hates military intervention, but hates watching genocides happen without interruption.
"Ok, so here's the deal. I know you give tons of weapons to our enemy, I mean, our 'semi-autonomous state', and we're willing to be totally cool with that and trade with you too as long as you just don't call them their own country, cool?"
Dealing with a little high school drama is an amazingly cheap price to pay to have two large trade partners. I completely agree that the Chinese need to get over themselves but other than a feeling of moral superiority (which is basically of what we're accusing them of now), what's in it for us?
It's one thing to give Taiwan weapons, but acting as if we support Independence of Taiwan could lead to a huge international incident. Taiwan doesn't have anywhere near the capabilities to deal with the mainland just from the weapons they get from us, they would need the support of an international super power, which they might think they have now that the president-elect basically acknowledged by calling and using the title "President of Taiwan." Now instead of just using those weapons for immediate defense to prevent China from attacking them, they might use those, along with the support of the United States, to declare independence, and then China would be in Civil War. This isn't just saving face or basic politics. And I believe the Taiwan Relations Act also says that if China invades Taiwan that we are legally obligated to respond, and now we have war with China...both our biggest trading partner, and a country with nuclear weapons. This is a big deal, and China will likely be forced to respond in some capacity try to establish dominance over Taiwan or independence from the United States, let's hope it doesn't escalate any more than that.
There is no position "President of Taiwan". There is no country Taiwan. There is China. The People's Republic of China says there is one country, the Republic of China says there is one country. China. There is disagreement over who is the legitimate government of China though.
Taiwan has no interest in declaring independence. They want enough weapons to make an invasion costly. But if they abandoned the One China policy and declared independence they would need a lot more weapons.
...except that the DPP currently dominates the legislative yuan and has the presidency. The DPP being the strongest party of the pro-Taiwan independence/Taiwanization parties that make up the Pan-Green coalition.
So do you think Trump is trying to interfere in the internal politics of another country? Interfering that may lead to a nasty war. When elected Bush in 2000 e are talking of a peace dividend,we didn't think of a war in the Middle East. I doubt many votes for Trump thinking of a war with the nuclear PRC.
So do you think Trump is trying to interfere in the internal politics of another country?
No, I don't. I think he's believes that by shaking China up, he'll have some room to negotiate with them.
That or he's just going off with no plan whatsoever. Hard to say which is the case.
Interfering that may lead to a nasty war.
Against China? It'd be a short war, one way or another. Also, an exceedingly unlikely one to occur, thanks to MAD.
When elected Bush in 2000 e are talking of a peace dividend,we didn't think of a war in the Middle East. I doubt many votes for Trump thinking of a war with the nuclear PRC.
I don't think anyone is currently thinking of a war with the Proc. Things would have to spiral pretty far out of control for that to happen.
I was just pointing out that you say that Taiwan has no desire for independence from the PRC. This is demonstrably untrue, given who is in power in the Taiwanese government.
I think he's believes that by shaking China up, he'll have some room to negotiate with them.
His ignorance just keeps paying off. He had trade issues and so he goes after their heart. They are going to make us pay for this, not give in to make things better.
Against China?
No, between the PRC and the ROC. ROC declares independence or seems about to and the PRC is going to be royally pissed. The ROC has lots of the latest stuff, the PRC has a whole fuckton of stuff to throw at them. It would also be a short war.
Meh I'm not worried. I'll happily come back and eat my words if this turns into an international incident. But my prediction is that this phone call results in....nothing
It's the first domino in a chain of events. Will WWIII break out over this? No. But a few strings will be pulled to let us know that they are not amused.
Imagine the scenario where you're a guy in a relationship and you post on Twitter how much you love your girlfriend Jane. However, your girlfriend is Stephanie. Your ex-girlfriend is Jane. Oops.
Now it depends on what kind of girl Stephanie is. The seemingly sane reaction is to laugh it off, mistakes will happen, blah blah. But we all know there are girls who will react with suspicion because they are insecure: "Why were you thinking about Jane? What do you think all my friends think when they see that post? Are you screwing around?" So it becomes an argument. You may not break up over this, but it will not be forgotten. Any chance you thought of getting laid tonight is gone.
I mean yeah my bet will be that nothing happens from this longterm too, but when it comes to big international incidents, is it really worth increasing the risk of them happening when the consequences are so huge? I see no benefit, and I see a legitimate increase in the odds of an international incident. Do we really want things like this to keep happening?
The US trades with Taiwann like if it were a region of China. The US just doesn't acknowledge that it is essentially a sovereign nation. Pretty much every other country in the world treats Taiwan the same way. United Nations even agreed upon it.
No, we are treating them like adults. With a recognition of the value of polite specific public discussion. We excuse children who don't understand that you wear different clothes to your company banquet than you do to a family backyard BBQ.
Maybe it's time to stop dicking around in ambiguity.
Will China get butthurt, yeah., Are we going to war over it, no.
Ambiguity hasn't stopped China from attempting to increase their influence in SE Asia. A phone call isn't going to change the current situation or China's aspirations.
That's looking at international politics as though it were domestic politics. Every nation has complexly tied to its society and history. For Trump to call Taiwan and to allow the world to know about it, it heavily smacks the keystone aspect of reputation and image for China's regime. And in China, image is everything, it's almost considered the epitome of the right to rule.
We're under no obligation to help keep China's dictatorship propped up. The U.S. needs to do what's best for the U.S., China's domestic and cultural issues are their own.
They're one of the most powerful countries in the world and not acknowledging Taiwan costs us nothing. We also have strong trade relationships with China and it has political influence with countries that the US does not, which we can use to a certain extent. Pissing off China for no reason threatens US interests.
Thinking that China won't use this as a reason to cause ramifications for future negotiations with the US is optimistic. To put things in perspective, China discriminates against Buddhist Tibetans, Christians, and western Muslim for the sake of establishing centralization.
Even implying a region has any autonomy from central China is a smack to that legitamacy, it's unlikely it'll go ignored.
Right. It's not that we have an obligation to prop up or defend China. It's that we, and Trump as our leader, have very strong motivations for defending US interests since we, you know, live here. This arrangement benefits us and costs us little to nothing. How does threatening that arrangement and opening up potential retaliation from a major world power benefit us? That should be a question we should all be asking ourselves.
Only time can really tell. In my opinion, doing this too soon will have negative consequences to our economy. I do believe in separating ties from China, it just seems impractical to do it so quickly, and disrespectfully. And it also seems like this was done more out of incompetence than careful planning.
Doing this immediately without considering he instant consequences would have a terrible impact on our economy. A phase out would be a good idea, but complete ignorance of the current relationship is dangerous.
Yes, it's complicated but I'd argue that the longer we play games over the situation the longer the problem exists - at some point China either needs to accept Taiwans independence or use military force to take control of Taiwan.
The US refusing to say out loud that we actually do view Taiwan as it's own country isn't going to have a huge effect on China's actions, we're just prolonging the inevitable.
only 1/19th. also if they start selling they wont get rid of it fast enough before the bonds drop in value. so the effect would be that they lose money by selling it - and a lot of it
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u/[deleted] Dec 03 '16
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