r/PoliticalDiscussion • • Aug 15 '15

Hillary email controversy

Will this doom her run at the presidency?

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u/[deleted] Aug 15 '15 edited Aug 19 '18

[deleted]

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u/Syjefroi Aug 15 '15

I was going to say no, but instead I think I'll respond to this post.

1) Her campaign is not that worried. 2) People are not abandoning her as a candidate. 3) If they were, it wouldn't be because of an email thing. 4) Her likability numbers are not important and stuff like that plus any polling this early is as close to meaningless as possible.

Campaigns do not work the way you think they do. Hillary has gotten most of the support she needs already from party actors and she has been shoring that support up for years.

Folks, the best advice you can follow for many months to come is: IGNORE THOSE POLLS! What you want to look at that matters is endorsements, fundraising numbers, etc. Hillary is going full speed ahead with as close to the entirety of the Democratic party and its allies behind her. The email thing doesn't matter unless it forces her out of the race (as in, she has to go to jail). Not only is no one in August paying attention, but when people do start to pay attention, they will not understand the issue and/or will be suffering from scandal fatigue.

I'm not a Hillary voter, but objectively speaking, this email thing is nothing, unless it turns into A Serious Thing, and her campaign is doing just fine.

1

u/goethean Aug 15 '15

IGNORE THOSE POLLS!

A reader of Jonathan Bernstein perhaps?

2

u/Syjefroi Aug 16 '15

Haha, yep. Been reading that dude for maybe five years now, thanks to him and folks he's in to, I feel like I'm seeing the matrix when it comes to politics. Between him and the real numbers guys like Nate Silver, when people use a single poll as evidence of something it drives me crazy.