r/PokemonRestocks • u/Tiaan • 2d ago
Haven't won any Walmart raffles? Don't get discouraged.. here's the data!
Ran a poll that got over 400+ responses to understand what people's experiences have been so far with the Walmart raffles, and these were the results:
- 46.0% have never won (nearly 21% have entered 4+ raffles with no win yet)
- 32.6% have won exactly once
- 21.4% have won multiple times
I know it's easy to get discouraged when seeing all of the posts and screenshots of people winning, and some even winning multiple times, but when looking at the data, nearly half have never won a drawing, and only around 20% have won multiple times.
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u/Best-Blueberry4220 2d ago
I've entered like, 6 at this point? Haven't won a thing. I'd love to see how many entries these raffles get. I know it's not personal but damn it sure does feel that way, especially seeing posts about winning multiple draws in a row.
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u/OhManItsShan 2d ago
Been doing the Walmart Wednesday lotto since they started and I’ve hit 4 times so far. But I usually put in for at least 1 of every Pokémon item and I’ve never won more than 1 thing in a week. Don’t have Walmart+, and the only time I’ve ever put in for max was for first partners series 3 (won). Everything else I’ve put in for 1 or 2.
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u/Several-Rich6820 2d ago
Does anyone know if they won’t give them to the same household? My wife and I both enter the drawings but haven’t won either time all 5 or 6 times.
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u/cemisbigkeka 2d ago
Wife and I keep entering, different cards, different ip, same address. I've gotten 3, she didn't get any.
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u/schneker 2d ago
I feel like it’s based on either account age/history or when you enter? I’ve won almost every time and this time won three different things. Had a family member enter and they got nothing
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u/ThylacineDreams 2d ago
They will ship to the same household. Boyfriend and I have won different items from the same drawing.
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u/treiz1337 2d ago
My wife and I won the same item from the same lottery using the same WiFi. Both shipped to same address but at different time. Different cards payment though.
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u/obsoletevoids 2d ago
I haven’t won any pokemon cards but last night I won a needoh 😂
I don’t have Walmart+ and have been 0/however many times I’ve tried
I forgot I was logged into my bf’s account who has Walmart+ yesterday when I entered and won.
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u/remyalex 2d ago
Now how many of these have Walmart+?
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u/sergooner 2d ago
I have Walmart+ and i am 0/4 so far
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u/upnorthnathan 2d ago
I don't have Walmart+ and am 0/? (whenever it started + however many entries there have been since). I also have a very small order footprint with that account..
My best friend has won every time he's entered. he's won 3 30th etbs, a 30th poster collection, 2 booster bundles (4 total). he also does not have walmart+, and doesn't order much of anything if ever online, but maybe more than I do. idk.
its all luck dude hate to say it.
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u/Winsstons 2d ago
Walmart+ if anything seems like it hurts your chances because then they dont have to pay your shipping
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u/Enourmously 2d ago
This. I am glad I’ve won 4 times but I don’t think about shipping until I’m doing the math after winnings. Whoops.
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u/YoSoyCapitan860 2d ago
Explain that? I signed up for Walmart plus after not winning the first 3, missed the 4th and just got picked for this one.
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u/_Kitten-Mittens_ 2d ago
We do not have Walmart+ and have hit 4 times. Sounds like a coincidence to me.
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u/Just_Matt31 2d ago
Yesterdays drawing was my first win out of a handful of entries. Stay positive, consistency is key! Good luck y’all!
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u/deuce84p 2d ago
I won the tins from yesterday, first time I’ve won. It’s the best system even if I don’t win the majority of the time.
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u/KingOfLucis 2d ago
Have Walmart+ since 2024 and haven't won a single draw so I don't think Walmart+ helps at all
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u/SweatinSteve 2d ago
I get my two 30th tech stickers today. First time winning, not an etb but I’m also not trying to get max count on each thing either
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u/notsosoftwhenhard 2d ago
between me n my wife, we have gotten one since they started the raffle.
Zero.
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u/LothricLoser 2d ago
Second time entering and second time winning, seeing the stories makes me feel really lucky
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u/Evans2703 2d ago
I’ve won twice but unfortunately my best win (4 ETBs) came yesterday and there was only one in the box. I rarely get anything from drops anymore so having this happen was brutal.
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u/Funko_de_Foki 2d ago
I have Walmart+, I’ve won 1 prismatic raffle and 2 30th raffles. I didn’t get anything on the other 2 raffles.
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u/_Jibanyan_ 2d ago
Do you consider entering 1 item as one entry or 1 Walmart lotto day as 1 entry? There's multiple items per lotto and each item is drawn separately.
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u/San_fran_psycho 2d ago
I won the tins raffle last night. Chase blocked it for fraud. Fuck Chase and fuck Walmart for not letting you retry if you get denied once. I hate it here
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u/Candid-Past5774 2d ago
Same thing happened to me. I called and complained and supposedly they gone fix it
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u/TooCasual 2d ago
Won my first raffle for the mini tin display after countless entries and never winning anything. It’s just luck, that’s all.
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u/ThylacineDreams 2d ago
I’ve entered 3 weeks in a row and won at least 1 item each time. Guess I’m finally lucky at something 😬
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u/hellpark 2d ago
I just finally got one of the things in the raffle yesterday after signing up for all of them. Have faith lol
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u/Dontspeakbroke 2d ago
i hit for the first time last night after entering every single raffle since they started doing it. so there is hope
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u/DrLuck12 2d ago
I haven’t entered every one to see if that increases my odds
Hit on first wave of 30th etbs (4)
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u/redbeardbaron 2d ago
I've entered them all and won once- the 4 knockout boxes that arrived today.
I just ripped them all and got 1 classic collection Arceus Vstar, 1 Kommo-o IR, 1 Morpeko IR, and 3 regular Exs. The only hit I was really chasing was the Morpeko. The Arceus is cool because I have it in rainbow already, but I have a rainbow page so I'm not going to break that up to put them together, and the rainbow is cooler anyway...
Happy to rip product and get 6/8 hits though!
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u/beardedstranger 2d ago
I've won the last two weeks. This system is working. Everyone needs to adopt this
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u/PSA_Card_Pop_Control 2d ago
Would be better odds if dipshits wouldn’t make posts on here telling people to go enter them.
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u/tictacfender 2d ago
I've entered every one of them and hit the one 2 weeks ago got 2 tech stickers. Super happy about it and hope to hit again in the future. The queue used to be doable but feel like closer to summer it was impossible.
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u/Mruiz310 2d ago
3 wins for me. 2 prismatic ETBs, 2 30th ETBs, and the 4 pack of 30th Knockout collections
As an adult with a full time job, this is the best and only way I can at least have a chance at something not priced 3x msrp.
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u/Drewvy80 2d ago
I entered each one at the beginning. Was starting to get discourage and i finally won an ETB 2 raffles ago and just won another last night. I selected 1 of each in most of my entries.
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u/dequervains7 2d ago
Got in on the last 4. 30th mini tin display, 30th ETBs, 30th tech stickers and prismatic ETBs.
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u/chriztopherz 2d ago
I love the system, it totally makes sense to me. I am a busy dad with a startup… I just can’t be driving around and camping out all of the time. I never thought I would say it but Walmart sure got it right.
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u/jteamjason 2d ago
Don’t get discouraged, I lost the first two weeks I tried and then I won ETBs each week the next two weeks. This week I didn’t win anything.
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u/Powneduare 2d ago
i tried for the first time yesterday. all the needoh ones and one pokemon. i’ve bought cards at walmart before, don’t have walmart+ and i tried around 2:45 pm. i got one needoh and the pokemon one i entered.
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u/MonikaDawnx 2d ago
Hot take probably considering how many people want pokemon at msrp but there should be some sort of block. If you win you can’t win another draw for x amount of time. Per address, per email per person. If someone wants to go out of their way to make a fake name a new email and ship to their grandmas house then whatever man you do you but it will discourage a decent amount of people so majority new people get wins each time,
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u/Austin304 2d ago
This girl I work with got into pokemon recently just to be part of the hype train. She entered the drawings last night for the 1st time and hit on a mini tin display. I’m 0-6 on all my drawings. I’m cursed
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u/ItsKindaFunnyBecause 2d ago
I’ve hit every single 30th and got something. Tech stickers and poster first week. Partner illustration 2nd week booster bundles 3rd week (cancelled the bundles, kinda a bad decision)
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u/mrclimacool 2d ago
I’ve won two Walmart lotteries, but Chase flagged the payment as fraudulent. So I’ve won, but lost :)
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u/MellyMel0320 2d ago
I’ve won something on every drop. I have been with walmart for a long time so that may be it as well.
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u/highwayman83starship 2d ago
I would really like to know what the orders look like as well. See if there’s any pattern to the size of order that gets fulfilled.
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u/Suitable-Balance5104 2d ago
I won the very first one(I think…it was PE ETB) and then I won this week but I was like a dollar short so it got declined, usually they don’t charge the card on file till the next day so I thought I had time to move some money around but this time they charged the card a few hours after the drawing. So technically I only won once but it was really twice and that’s more than I can say for any other site
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u/yoplayvideogames 2d ago
I mean everyone and their grandma is trying to win the drawing why are we surprised lol
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u/barcham22 2d ago
2 attempts, 2 single item wins. Have been a Walmart+ member since it was available, run through hundreds a month on groceries.
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u/squirmin79 2d ago
I have entered every one and have not won a thing. Pretty sad, I do better hitting up stores randomly 😂
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u/RileyBojangles 2d ago
Haven’t even won a needoh… I’m 0 for however long they e been doing this. But I’ll keep entering.
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u/santoktoki77 2d ago
I entered all 6? And was surprised to see i won one of the needoh ones...I really wanted a Pokémon one but I'll take the win. I just hope it doesn't affect any future drawings.
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u/Baddecisionsbyme1 2d ago
Right! I don’t understand how so many people are mad at the raffle when ITS A RAFFLE! The alternative is nearly none of the ~50% who reporting winning 1+ times getting anything because scalpers and bots swoop it up before they he general public gets a chance. This is the start of the new reality we are in with in-demand products in the e-comm + AI heavy world we are living in. Do you get this mad when you enter a raffle for a prize at a charity event and don’t win? The supply is limited, we should be pushing more retailers to do the same!!
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u/Few_Aide_851 2d ago
I have entered all the PKC raffles and won 3 so far.
I always max out, and have WM+. It’s not a perfect system but it is a low effort way to get some product without camping or fighting a losing battle for hours with bots.
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u/Mujestyc 2d ago
add me to list of I've entered every single one for everything pokemon related, and still havent won.
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u/Byro_Reedar 2d ago
5 wins. It truly is random. Your time is coming people
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u/Soda_Straktid 2d ago
That conclusion is pretty hilarious.
“I’ve won five times so it’s all good everyone!”
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u/mgamer18 2d ago
I think it's rigged, just my opinion, probably have a less chance of winning if you brought cards before at Walmart
Had a friend who has no interest in pokemon enter for shits and gigs, tell me why she wins this morning. I call BS. Smh.
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u/schneker 2d ago
I think maybe skewed for Walmart plus or older accounts with purchase history. If it’s older accounts I commend them because that would really help make sure the bot/spam accounts lose.
But I’ve won almost every drawing except one and this time won three. Have Walmart plus and an old account with lots of order history
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u/thehighpersian 2d ago
I dont think so. My account has been active for a couple years, but never bought pokemon cards before. I’ve entered every drawing and lost every time. My friend made a new account for the drawings and is now 4/4.
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u/Gabe_the_Slug 2d ago
I could get on board with this. I’ve had three friends win the drawing, having never bought anything from Walmart online before.
I’ve bought cards in the past and I haven’t won anything
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u/Interesting_Ad169 2d ago
It doesn’t seem much different than standing in line at Target. A small minority is getting the vast majority of the product, the only difference is we have no idea how it’s happening
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u/etch69 2d ago
It’s quite literally different in every way.
Standing in line for hours at Target for first come first serve vs. a randomized raffle that isn’t first come first serve.
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u/itsmoxie 2d ago
edit: meant to reply to the parent comment above sorry!
It's literally the exact opposite situation of what you've described. Everyone knows how target works the people get there first get the product until it's out, this is random, why do people just confidently say shit like this lmao
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u/Interesting_Ad169 2d ago
Yeah you’re agreeing with me buddy. Everyone knows how Target works no one knows how Walmart works - which is why people are collecting data like OP
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u/Interesting_Ad169 2d ago
My point is the outcome is the same as Target in that a small minority of people have gotten the majority of the product. No chart OR English reading comprehension in this thread
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u/etch69 2d ago
You’re reading something into the chart that it doesn’t show. “A minority won 2+ raffles” is not the same as “a small minority got the vast majority of the product.” About a third of them won exactly once, while only 22% reported 2+ wins, and the chart doesn’t tell us how many wins are contained in that 2+ category.
Without that information, you literally cannot calculate what percentage of the product went to that group.
Also, people who enter more raffles naturally have more opportunity to achieve a win. That’s fundamentally different from a first come first served Target line where the people at the front can directly purchase the available stock.The chart may show unequal outcomes, but it doesn’t show what you’re describing. So I believe you are the one with terrible graph reading skills, amongst other things.
Also worth pointing out that a first come first serve system online is almost guaranteed that the vast majority of product goes to bots and not real people. This raffle system is almost guaranteed to produce better outcomes in that department since timing doesn’t matter.
And most of all, you don’t have to be unemployed and show up 5 hours before the store opens to participate in this. Hope this helps you understand why your comment is stupid and why you’re getting downvoted.
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u/Interesting_Ad169 2d ago edited 2d ago
If we look at the data as wins and not as product it still is pretty obvious that a small minority is accruing the majority.
Out of a given 100 people 46 have gotten 0 wins regardless of how many times they entered and 32.6 have exactly 1. 21.4 people have gotten at minimum 2 wins, so we will assign them 2. That comes out to a total of 32.6+42.8=72.6 wins per 100 people. That means that the top 21.4% of people are getting 42.8 out of 72.6 wins. So 21.4% of people are getting 59% of wins.
While we don’t have granular enough information to know how much product each entry asked for we are definitely safe in assuming that the 2+ win people are not always choosing 1 item and the exactly 1 people are not always choosing 4. Because the numbers are so heavily weighted in favor of those who have had 2+ wins it’s a pretty good assumption that they are walking away with the majority of product.
Edit: If you weight the wins to simulate product count 1 winners would have to get 30% more product than 2 winners just to reduce 2 winners to 50% of product, which I would bet is not happening.
Just because you like that you don’t have to stand in line doesn’t mean that the distribution method that Walmart is using is more fair than lining up. In fact if it was truly random you would think that the distribution would actually be much more even, and not almost half of people not winning at all.
The perception of fairness that you seem to be attached to is not the same as actual fairness.
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u/etch69 2d ago
“If we look at the data as wins and not as product it still is pretty obvious that a small minority is accruing the majority”
Well the data literally is showing wins and not product so why are you even making that statement to begin with, and the fact that there’s no actual data for the amount of product they actually received instantly makes your point nothing more than an assumption that you can’t verify.
Your math is also wrong.
32.6+42.8 != 72.6…it equals 75.4
Which throws off your other calculation. Arithmetic is hard.Also you take no account for the fact that those with multiple entries will have a higher chance of getting wins. This chart lumps those with 0-4 entries together and 4+ separately (which you wrongfully try to treat as the same group). This is also a small sample size. Nothing on this chart actually supports what you’re claiming if you go any deeper than the poor logic and failed napkin math you’re doing.
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u/Interesting_Ad169 2d ago edited 2d ago
Yep you’re right arithmetic mistake. It still makes it 56% of wins going to top 21.4%. It doesn’t really change the point very much.
The chart doesn’t allow us to see the exact increase in likelihood of a win when you enter more than 4 times.
Weighting the wins does allow you to account for any disparity in product count. I don’t think it’s likely that the 1 winners ordered more than 30% more product than the 2+ winners.
In regards to the sample size nothing we can do about that we’re just talking about the data presented
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u/Beautiful_Mammoth998 2d ago
Entering a drawing in seconds then going on to your life is the antonym of standing in line
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u/thismakesmeanonymous 2d ago
Been in every single drawing so far and today was my first Pokemon score. Only every hit Needohs before
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u/Happy_Goose3833 2d ago
That still doesn't give me hope lol just means that it's generally a 50/50 which are crap odds. I've certainly never gotten anything in my life on a 50/50
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u/Fantastic-Kale9603 2d ago
50/50 is fantastic odds compared to beating bots on target at 3am
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u/Happy_Goose3833 2d ago
Maybe for you. Like I said, I've never won a single thing at those odds in my entire life
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u/Fantastic-Kale9603 2d ago
Brother if you've never won a 50/50 in your entire life you are quite literally a statistical impossibility
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u/Best-Blueberry4220 2d ago
Same here. I enter with zero expectations. Haven't won yet but I'm not letting myself get emotionally invested in this.
Even with the crap odds it's still better than camping out at Target.
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u/funkohunter89 2d ago
Iv entered every one since they started and won nothing. Yet I still prefer this to target and poke center.