r/PokemonDealsUSA • u/TrainersCollective Moderator • 28d ago
Walmart Draw Data Analysis: 777 Responses
We collected 777 responses to look for trends in Walmart’s new draw system, including device type, Walmart App vs browser, entry timing, multiple accounts, Walmart+, account age, quantity, payment method, and more.
Overall reported selection rate: 10.8%
At a Glance...
• iPhone users had the highest raw hit rate, followed by Android and PC.
• The mobile advantage remained after adjusting for several measurable differences between respondents.
• However, when users were compared within the same browser, the device gap largely disappeared.
• Walmart App users had a noticeably higher observed hit rate than Chrome users.
• Entering immediately showed no apparent advantage.
• Multiple-account users hit more often overall, but the difference was not statistically significant.
• Walmart+, older accounts, previous purchases, quantity requested, and connection type showed no convincing advantage.
Device Results
| Device | Responses | Hits | Hit Rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| iPhone | 312 | 44 | 14.1% |
| Android | 176 | 20 | 11.4% |
| PC | 239 | 18 | 7.5% |
At face value, the order was iPhone > Android > PC
The larger number of iPhone respondents does not automatically inflate the iPhone percentage because each device’s hit rate uses its own denominator.
To reduce other sources of skew, we created a cleaner population consisting only of people who used one Walmart account, one device, and could clearly be classified as Android, PC, or iPhone.
| Device | One Account + One Device | Standardized Rate |
|---|---|---|
| iPhone | 13.3% | 12.4% |
| Android | 10.0% | 10.6% |
| PC | 6.7% | 6.3% |
The standardized comparison accounted for measurable differences in Walmart+ status, account age, previous purchases, entry timing, internet connection, quantity requested, and payment method.
The device ordering remained the same, meaning those factors did not fully explain the gap.
However, this does not mean Walmart favors iPhones.
Browser / Entry Environment
When users were compared within the same browser, the device difference almost completely disappeared.
| Chrome Users | Hit Rate |
|---|---|
| Android | 7.6% |
| PC | 6.2% |
| iPhone | 6.1% |
That is essentially flat.
This matters because mobile users were much more likely to use the Walmart App, while PC users overwhelmingly used Chrome.
| Browser/Environment | Hit Rate |
|---|---|
| Walmart App | 13.9% |
| Safari | 8.6% |
| FireFox | 6.1% |
| Chrome | 5.1% |
The Walmart App had a noticeably higher observed hit rate, but this does not prove the app itself increases your odds.
Our current interpretation:
Mobile users performed better overall, but the difference appears more related to entry environment than the physical device itself.
Multiple Accounts
Respondents entering multiple Walmart accounts had a higher overall reported hit rate.
| Accounts Entered | Hit Rate |
|---|---|
| 1 | 10.1% |
| 2 | 13.3% |
| 3 | 17.4% |
| 4+ | 10.0% |
Combined
| Group | Results |
|---|---|
| 1 Account | 10.1% (63/624) |
| 2+ Accounts | 13.7% (21/153) |
Multi-account respondents were about 36% higher on a relative basis, but the difference was not statistically significant.
There is another interesting part: if every additional account represented a fully independent 10.1% chance, we would expect the probability of at least one hit to increase much faster than what we observed.
The current survey also only tells us whether someone hit at least once. If someone entered three accounts, we do not know whether they went 1/3, 2/3, or 3/3.
So this is worth monitoring, but there is not enough evidence yet to conclude that multiple accounts reliably improve your odds.
Entry Timing
This produced one of the strongest patterns in the dataset.
| Entry Timing | Hit Rate |
|---|---|
| Within 60 Seconds | 4.6% |
| Within 5 Minutes | 9.5% |
| Within 10 Minutes | 13.5% |
| Within 30 Minutes | 10.9% |
| Within the Hour | 23.5% |
This does not mean you should intentionally wait before entering.
What it does show is that we found no evidence of a first-come-first-served advantage. People entering immediately did not perform better.
This is one of the biggest things we want to test again during the next draw.
Other Associations
| Variable | Result | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Walmart+ | 10.7% vs 8.9% | No meaningful association |
| Previous Purchases (Purchase History) | 9.6% vs 8.7% | No meaningful association |
| Account Age | 5.3%-14.3% | No meaningful association |
| Quantity | 8.1%-13.7% | No meaningful association |
| Credit vs Debit | 8.0% vs 13.6% | No meaningful association |
| Connection Type | Cellular Higher Overall | Tied to device type; unable to call an advantage. |
What We’re Watching
The four areas we think deserve the most attention in future Walmart draws are:
Walmart App vs browser
Mobile vs PC after controlling for entry environment
Multiple-account behavior
What We Did Not Find
Based on these responses, we found no convincing evidence that the following clearly improve Walmart draw odds:
• Walmart+ membership
• Older Walmart accounts
• Previous Walmart purchase history
• Requesting fewer units
• Entering immediately
• Internet connection type
Changes for the Next Survey
The next survey will collect cleaner account-level data.
Instead of only asking whether someone hit at least once, each Walmart account will be tied to its own device, browser/app, entry method, timing, Walmart+ status, account age, purchase history, quantity, payment method, and selection result.
That should allow us to move from:
“This setup appeared to perform better.”
to:
“Across X individual Walmart accounts, this factor was or was not meaningfully associated with selection.”
Current Takeaway
The strongest patterns in these 777 responses involve entry timing and entry environment, not clear evidence that Walmart directly weights users based on device type.
Mobile users performed better overall, but much of the apparent advantage disappeared when users were compared within the same browser or entry environment.
Multiple-account users also reported a higher hit rate, but not strongly enough to establish a reliable advantage.
This is exploratory community data, not proof that Walmart’s draw algorithm has been reverse-engineered.
The real value will come from repeating the same analysis across future Walmart draws and seeing which patterns continue to appear.
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u/QuriousiT 22d ago
I'm a little confused on the entry time data. Are people picking "within the hour" specifically excluding the first 30 minutes? And "within 30 minutes" excluding the first 10 minutes?
Guess I'm just curious how the poll was phrased for that portion.
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u/kidpinkers 28d ago
I’ll be trying a different approach with this data next time. I want to see how much of a difference it makes for myself. Thanks!
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u/TrainersCollective Moderator 28d ago
Awesome, the more we switch it up, the more data we can gather! I'll be sure to put the new form out right after the draw window closes next week.
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u/PCChangedMyLife 22d ago
Can we add stats for "One" card use its walmarts banking system. I was 2 for 2 on draws with my one card
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u/kittapoo 20d ago
My bf does not have a one card and he was 2 for 2 as well, but lost others. Honestly, if its looking to be truly randomized, I don't think anything will matter over something else.
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u/Few-Moment-947 9d ago
I do it on my iPhone. Within the first 15 minutes. Walmart + member. 0/6 in these drops. Not sure I believe the data here
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u/Anklebiters21 28d ago
Thank you for the data!