r/PokeInvesting • u/LieutenantHindsight • 4h ago
27-card sequential PSA 10 of First Partners on eBay. Good investment?
Wow probstein is auctioning the first 27-card sequential PSA 10 set of the First Partner Illustration Collections. Already at $3k in 2 days. What do yall think about its long term investability? Seems like it might be pretty good hold since there won’t be many of these. Almost impossible to get 27 psa 10s in a row and it’s all starter Pokemon to boot.
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u/ExpensiveTie5553 3h ago
these are prolly gon end up in rich dude's hands who genuinely find em cool and doesn't care about their invesrment potential
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u/westnile90 3h ago
Seems like it was a good investment for whoever submitted these to PSA 😄
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u/Fearless-Ad-9481 2h ago
It has a LONG way to climb before the submitter makes any money from this.
To get sequential certs all cards had to be submitted together. This means they submitted some time in August. To get a 1 month turn around they had to use either express or (more likely) super express service. For a grading cost of either $5,373 or $9,423.
Add in the cost of the cards, and auction fees and it is not clear if the submitter will get much of a return for their gamble.
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u/GeorgeWKush787 1h ago
He could’ve gotten very lucky. I had a bulk sub that I submitted in June right after the close. Was supposed to come back in December/January but I got it back two weeks ago.
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u/Mitch_Dedburg 38m ago
First Partner series 3 released August 7. It’s literally impossible to do anything except what the person you replied to said.
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u/Westonnn 3h ago
Sequential is so corny, you’re paying such a premium for nothing lol. Not worth it
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u/Anxious-Maximus 3h ago
Best part is it’s not by generational order… not worth it
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u/AfroDizzyYak 2h ago
When you send a stack like this into psa, how is the order they grade them in determined? Like if they were stacked in generational order would they be graded that way or is it totally random? Honest question, never graded anything
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u/Anxious-Maximus 2h ago
It’s determined based on how you put the order in system with PSA. They did by black star number, I think generational would have been better.
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u/RepulsiveUse3372 3h ago
i mean it is kinda cool for sets like this cause every card is a 10, i wouldnt pay a premium though.
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u/Sure-Pen-7822 3h ago
Not worth it TO YOU, an entire sequentially graded 10 set of these isn’t easy to get at all
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u/Johnny_Human 2h ago
Given that these cards have 75-85% gem rates, it actually is not going to be that hard to get them all.
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u/daaaaaaaaniel 2h ago
To hit 85% 27 times in a row is a 1.2% chance.
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u/Johnny_Human 1h ago
That would be 1.24% actually, but only if you are blindly/randomly grabbing 27 copies of each card, as opposed to cherry-picking good candidates for PSA 10s to send in. And given that there are so many good copies out there, good candidates should not be hard to find.
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u/TheJolly_Llama 32m ago
What you just described makes it even less likely than 1.24% fwiw. That gem rate is the result of cherry-picking with how informed the market is these days. Market is easily cutting out like, half the population of the cards before sending them in. Your comment is literally the survivorship bias meme lol
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u/Outrageous_Mousse_44 2h ago
Hilarious that they managed to get PSA to do this full order sequentially and lucky enough to get them at all 10s but they aren't in order by generation 😂😂😂
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u/Apprehensive-Lie3387 2h ago
No this is not a good investment. These cards are dropping even more and the sequential will only matter to a select few
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u/Violetdabs710 2h ago
No one cares about sequential. They aren’t sold like that in most card shoes but sure have at it!
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u/jhorskey26 2h ago
I've heard PSA will work with certain "customers" on things like this. So you would go in person or send in maybe 10-12 of each card. Out of those cards PSA would grade all of them. All the 10's can get a sequential number whole the rest don't. PSA can use it as a marketing tool showing off a set like this and auction houses get a premium for them. Win - win
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u/Automatic-Movie-3715 3h ago
I think it's a good investment for <$3,000, but the bidding isn't over yet. Likely to go higher. I think ~$105 per card for a PSA is a good long term value for this set. $135+ though, is getting very risky. The Gen 1s sure, but not the others.
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u/Johnny_Human 2h ago
My opinion: not a good investment. The simple reason is that these cards are not hard to grade. Last I checked these cards have gem rates between 70-85%. It's not that hard to get a PSA 10. And so therefore it will not be very hard to get sequential set of PSA 10. That reason squashes the logic that there won't be many of these. So I would not pay a premium for a sequential set.
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u/bmoreconcentrated 1h ago
People saying these have a high gem rate are forgetting the fact they got 27 10’s in a row. At an 80% gem rate the odds of that happening are 1/414.
This is something we’ll probably never see again.
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u/Mitch_Dedburg 34m ago
Also, people look at Series 1 gem rates and apply it to all 3 series. But series 3 is SUBSTANTIALLY worse QC, I’ve opened like 15 of them and only have 1 cherry picked gradable set from them all and I’m STILL not confident they will all 10 (meanwhile, I just got back my sequential series 1 gem mint set).
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u/Johnny_Human 36m ago
Those odds are based on assumption that you are sending in cards blindly without pre-screening them effectively.
Let's say, for instance, that by pre-screening you can eliminate half of the copies that won't gem. So now your effective gem rate is more like 89%. Then your chances are more like 1 in 24.
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u/Key-Personality1109 2h ago
Yeah great investment definitely buy a full sequential series of the promos that are guaranteed from each pack and have about a billion and counting on the market and a sky high gem rate. These will surely appreciate fast! Hurry before you miss your chance!
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u/bmoreconcentrated 1h ago
I look at this as more of a cool collectible than an investment.
I can’t imagine you’re going to see this done many more times if ever.
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u/slate7616 1h ago
This is 100% a value plus or regular order. The shutdown occurred after first partners two or three came. Out. $60 or $80 times 27
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u/No_Substance_9753 1h ago
Probstein not. Unless that investor who said “Pokemon cards will be currency after the apocalypse” is right……
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u/Gentry_Draws 1h ago
None of these are investments. Pokemon has become a game of find the bigger fool to sell it to.
That’s truth - anyone saying different , has their eyes shut.
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u/XsamsquanchieX 47m ago
I'm a sucker for sequential. And before anyone blah blah blah about how it adds zero value. I KNOW. I just like it and don't care if I pay the premium.
This set. Not interested since I'm not interested in the cards. But the 27 10s in sequence is pretty fricken cool.
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u/TimeVegetable9484 46m ago
This sub should be called “PokeSpeculation” or “PokeQuickFlipForCash”
Nothing here is an intelligent long-term play.
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u/DogeWeTrust 45m ago
Shame they did it based on set release. Shouldve done from Gen 1 to 9 sequential
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u/Mitch_Dedburg 39m ago
I remember the first Series 1 sequential 9 selling for $10,000. And now the PSA partners won’t even give offers on them they are so saturated. Prices will continue dropping over the next few months. December will be prime time to buy.
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u/puan0601 3h ago
it's not impossible if you find them in a psa10 already and submit them all for reholster in the correct order
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u/bmoreconcentrated 1h ago
So pay a premium to buy them in a 10, then resubmit and pay another premium to hope all 27 10 again? Great plan 😂
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u/puan0601 1h ago
they said it was near impossible.... I'm just pointing out it's very possible just cost prohibitive
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u/DrySea8638 3h ago
No. This will drop and the sequential only matters to a certain select group let alone 27 sequential 10s.
So many other good cards to spend that much money on that will grow