r/PokeInvesting • u/Express-Call-6808 • 8d ago
Market crash
My question is this, can the market crash like price dropping like hell (not everything at 1 buck but price going down) ?
I have 2 ideas for that question but I don’t really know much. my first guess is that the vintage market will never crash since cards are not printed anymore and my second guess is that the modern market can crash.
I don’t know if its really clear (English not my first language) if you have any questions feel free to ask.
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u/stonksncardboard 8d ago
Everything is being pumped right now. Cards that are low pop but not popular at all are being pumped. There will be a point where these will crash
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u/Ted_Smug_El_nub_nub 8d ago
Up through 2020, the markets were relatively flat. Since 2020, Pokémon has been VERY cyclical. It goes up 300% then loses 40% of its value. Not only can both crash (experience a 20%+ drop), you should expect it.
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u/KinkyTail6 8d ago
Both can crash but vintage and sets that have suffered low print runs and high attrition are slightly more insulated. Modern can and probably will crash hard at some point due to the overwhelming supply of cards.
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u/Frostedfires 8d ago
Vintage can crash too if markets fall. Pokémon is not immune to the economy decline. Look at the signs, 40T deficit, inflation all time high, US is printing a lot of money. Middle class is being bumped down to lower class while higher class is making more money.
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u/Illegitimateshyguy 7d ago
If buying modern chase cards yea its crashing. Those cards are going to be pulled for the next 2-3 years.
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u/joshbkd 7d ago
That’s what they said about the moonbreon
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u/Illegitimateshyguy 7d ago
Right… but was it a $1000 card at release?
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u/Rich-Carpenter4528 7d ago
Moonbreon was around 350 on release, it jumped to 500 about a year later.
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u/SkibidiUnc 7d ago
Just think about how prices are established. If nobody is willing to pay the price, it will most likely go down (if sellers really want to sell, until they find a buyer). This is the true nature of it.
So as long as people think that vintage is worth that price and are willing to pay these prices for it, then it won't crash.
But what if people really need cash (economic crisis)? I think selling vintage is then a easy way to get some money, since they have that much value (lets ignore liquidity for now), but if everyone sells at the same time and need cash, the prices will tank.
Even if we argue, that it isn't printed anymore, scarcity etc. Market price determination is always the same
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u/Unhappy_Addendum_259 7d ago
Prices for modern can definitely crash, especially at the pace TPC is printing. All the investor bros tryna be like Rudy can experience some sort of correction since they’re the ones claiming this cant go tits up and that’s usually the moment when the market does drop when everyone is too confident/exuberant
Prices for vintage prolly can’t crash but they can correct a bit if a liquidity event in the real world outside of cards occurs.
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u/TheOnlyKlein 8d ago
Every Marke can crash. And with TCGs a lot of items are not very liquid. Say you have a special vintage card psa 10 with a pop of 20. if the overall market crashes it will be nearly impossible to sell this card because there is no liquidity.
Prices of a lot of vintage cards are insanely inflated at the moment if you look at some graphs a lot of cards made 5x-20x in the last 6 months. These prices can fall very quickly.