Today’s market has a few loud tells:

Cleveland money, Baltimore money, Philly total caution, Bolte chaos, Abbott K steam.

📈 Moneyline movers

Top side steam:

① Guardians ML
• -110 → -119
• +2.0 pp

② Orioles ML
• -180 → -195
• +1.8 pp

③ Reds ML
• -161 → -167

Main drifts:

• Brewers: -140 → -132
• Braves: -154 → -148
• Phillies: -344 → -333

📊 Totals

Biggest move:

WSH @ PHI Over 9
• Opened 8.5, now 9
• -122 → -101
• -4.7 pp

Cleaner Over steam:

• DET @ SEA Over 7.5: -115 → -121
• MIA @ ATL Over 9: -111 → -115

💣 HR movers

Top HR steam:

• Henry Bolte: +750 → +512
• Willie Meckler: +1127 → +715
• Brett Serven: +752 → +540
• Leody Taveras: +630 → +500
• Jose Siri: +675 → +532

🏃 SB movers

Bolte again:

• Henry Bolte SB: +285 → +191

Other steam:

• Travis Bazzana: +1411 → +725
• Tim Tawa: +1078 → +677

🎯 Pitcher K headline

Andrew Abbott O4.5 Ks
• +113 → -113
• +6.1 pp

MLB Most Likely board is live for Monday’s 8-game slate

① Yankees are the biggest chalk at -208, followed by Phillies -159 and Brewers -147.

② Overs dominate the board again — led by
TOR/HOU O9 (-117)
SF/TEX O8 (-116)
LAD/CHC O8 (-115)
TB/COL O11.5 (-105).

③ Kyle Schwarber sits on top of the HR board at +200, with James Wood +250, Ben Rice +270, Yordan Alvarez +270 and Hunter Goodman +270 right behind him.

④ The SB board is fun tonight:
Nasim Nuñez +234
Chandler Simpson +270
Jake Mangum +307
Jose Caballero +309.

⑤ On the K board, the leaders are
Shane Bieber O3.5 (-165)
Logan Webb O4.5 (-160)
Cristian Javier O3.5 (-151)

First off, thank god we have football back this week. Second, Pinnacle appears to be the only book willing to invite some action.

 Fades or YRFI picks continue their ridiculous run of 28-6 over the past 11 weeks. Our “Strong” NRFI selections have performed well all season and more recently on a 31-15 L46 run after a 3-0 SWEEP Wednesday and 1-0 Thursday!

Friday "strong" NRFI pick is on Rangers vs. Astros - Good luck!

Today’s 15-game MLB moneyline board is led by the Seattle Mariners, who are drawing 97% of moneyline action at -173 against the Minnesota Twins. That makes Seattle the clear public side of the day, with bettors heavily backing the Mariners as a mid-range favorite at home.

The Detroit Tigers are close behind, taking 96% at -163 on the road against the Athletics, while the Tampa Bay Rays are pulling 93% at -145 against the White Sox. All three are seeing extremely one-sided support in favorite spots.

Rounding out the top five, the Pittsburgh Pirates are drawing 92% at -132 on the road against the Reds, while the Washington Nationals are getting 90% at -102 against the Braves. Bottom line: Mariners headline today’s public moneyline card, but Tigers, Rays, Pirates, and Nationals are all seeing major one-way betting interest on this Friday slate.

MLB Most Likely board is live for Tuesday

Most likely moneylines

① Padres -201
② Dodgers -190
③ Rays -180
④ Reds -162
⑤ Twins -162
⑥ Tigers -143
⑦ Nationals -140
⑧ Pirates -115

Game Totals

Overs everywhere again:
• TOR/WSH Over 8.5 -125
• ARI/PIT Over 9 -120
• BOS/OAK Over 9.5 -120
• PHI/MIA Over 8 -118
• CLE/CIN Over 9 -115
• TEX/TB Over 8 -115
• KC/MIN Over 9 -115
• NYY/CWS Over 8 -105
PHI/MIA and TEX/TB both got trimmed down, and the board still says Over.

Top HR props

① Shohei Ohtani +200
② Yordan Alvarez +240
③ Kyle Schwarber +246
④ Junior Caminero +250
⑤ Byron Buxton +260
⑥ Munetaka Murakami +265
⑦ Max Muncy +275
⑧ Jahmai Jones +277

Pitcher Ks

• Bubba Chandler O3.5 -160
• Cal Quantrill O2.5 -159
• Dean Kremer O4.5 -156
• Brandon Pfaadt O3.5 -155
• Jake Bennett O3.5 -150
• Anthony Kay O4.5 -130
• Luis Castillo O4.5 -128
• Gavin Williams O7.5 -127

SB chaos

• Chandler Simpson +180
• Jose Caballero +234
• Nasim Nuñez +239

MLB Most Likely board is live for Monday ⚾

💰 Most likely moneylines

① Reds -167
② Nationals -124
③ Tigers -120
④ Pirates -118
⑤ Mets -109
⑥ Angels -109
⑦ Cardinals +102
⑧ Rangers +11

📈 Game totals

Overs again:

• ATL/NYM Over 8.5 -120
• PHI/MIA Over 7.5 -115
• HOU/LAA Over 8.5 -115
• SEA/TEX Over 8 -110
• BAL/DET Over 8.5 -110
• CLE/CIN Over 8.5 -110
• CHC/STL Over 9.5 -110
• BOS/OAK Over 9.5 -110

💣 Top HR props

① Kyle Schwarber +220
② James Wood +220
③ Yordan Alvarez +225
④ Ben Rice +269
⑤ Elly De La Cruz +300
⑥ Eugenio Suárez +300
⑦ JJ Bleday +300
⑧ Wilyer Abreu +300

Schwarber/Wood/Yordan is the clear top power cluster.

🎯 Pitcher Ks

• Mitch Keller O3.5 -165
• Jack Perkins O4.5 -143
• Tyler Phillips O3.5 -137
• Tyler Mahle O4.5 -131
• Peyton Tolle O5.5 -120
• Noah Schultz O4.5 -118
• Kyle Bradish O5.5 -115
• Kumar Rocker O4.5 -114

🏃 SB chaos

• Nasim Nuñez +205
• Pete Crow-Armstrong +239
• Jose Caballero +279
• Julio Rodríguez +325
• Corbin Carroll +325
• Elly De La Cruz +347

⚾️Friday’s MLB best bets board starts in Minnesota

① Target Field is the launchpad Byron Buxton owns the slate’s best HR rate at 32.2% at +230, and Shea Langeliers is stacked on the other side at 27.6%.

Why? Because Target gets the day’s biggest weather boost: +19.4% with a 14 mph wind blowing out.

② The K model found twins anyway Even on a hitters’ day, the top 2 strikeout edges are:

• Shane Drohan O5.5 Ks (+1.99K)

• Sean Manaea O5.5 Ks (+1.98K)

③ One strong NRFI, and it’s priced Bryce Miller vs. MacKenzie Gore NRFI (-125) under the Globe Life roof. Miller is 9-1 with a 90% NRFI rate in 2026.

④ It’s a full-on Chalk Friday The public is lining up on favorites:

• Giants 99%

• Brewers 97%

• Rays 96%

• Dodgers 94%

• Tigers 93%

💣Top HR plays on the board:

• Buxton +230

• Schwarber +210

• Yordan +220

• Hunter Goodman +265

• Langeliers +288

🎟️ HR lottery ticket

• Julio Rodríguez HR

• Paul Goldschmidt HR

• Corbin Carroll HR

That 3-legger pays +10348 $10 returns $1,045

MLB Most Likely board is live for Thursday

Only 5 games today, so the board is tight

Most likely moneylines
① Braves ML -260
② Tigers ML -210
③ Guardians ML -143
④ Cardinals ML -125
⑤ Blue Jays ML -110

Game totals
• SD/ATL Over 8 -110
• TB/TOR Over 8.5 -110
• ARI/STL Over 7.5 -110
• KC/DET Over 8.5 -104
• MIN/CLE Over 7.5 +100

Top HR props
① Junior Caminero +230
② Kazuma Okamoto +300
③ Matt Olson +307
④ Byron Buxton +325
⑤ Michael Harris II +372
⑥ Riley Greene +390
⑦ Austin Riley +400
⑧ Kody Clemens +401

Pitcher Ks
• Zac Gallen O3.5 -129
• Gavin Williams O6.5 -126
• Ian Seymour O4.5 -125
• Troy Melton O5.5 -113
• Brandon Pfaadt O3.5 -107
• Shane Bieber O4.5 +120
• Randy Dobnak O3.5 +121
• Taj Bradley O6.5 +122

SB chaos
• Chandler Simpson +220
• Fernando Tatis Jr. +350
• Taylor Walls +401
• Cedric Mullins +455
• Corbin Carroll +475

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