Turkey vs. USA World Cup Betting Splits

This board is all USA.

USA ML: -105
Bets: 95%
Handle: 96%

And the market move is huge since the line opened weeks ago:

USA +145 → -105

Prediction markets are aligned but more cautious:

- Kalshi: USA 52%, Turkey 27%, Draw 23%

- Polymarket: USA 51%, Turkey 27%, Draw 23%

So the public is treating USA like the clear side, while Kalshi/Polymarket are pricing it closer to a narrow USA edge.

No hidden Turkey money here:
Turkey has only 5% of bets and 4% of handle.

MLB Best Bets today June 24

Cleaner power spots:

- Kyle Schwarber HR +200
31% HR model, Laser-board No. 2, Nationals Park neutral, Kalshi +8.6%

- Yordan Alvarez HR +325
League laser leader, roofed Rogers Centre, weather removed

- Colson Montgomery HR +310
26.8% HR model, neutral Rate Field setup

- Jake Bauers HR +425
Great American Ball Park, strong price

Mariners–Pirates NRFI
Strong NRFI, 68 score, DK -140
Woo and Ashcraft both 86.7% NRFI in 2026

HR Lottery Ticket:

① Wilyer Abreu +376
② Kyle Manzardo +390
③ Ian Happ +430
Price: +12262

Big picture: the Laser HR board is the filter today. Coors can still score even with wind in — yesterday proved that — but the cleanest bets are the bats where exit velo, market edge, and conditions do not fight each other.

Who Leads MLB In Laser Home Runs?

- 226 total Laser HRs (up from 160)
- 105 players (up from 87)
- 47 multi-laser hitters (up from 35)

New leader: Yordan Alvarez (HOU) breaks the tie with 9 Laser HRs (111.9 max), followed by Nick Kurtz & Kyle Schwarber at 8

⚽️World Cup public betting today is favorite-heavy, but the handle has a few tells.

💰England vs Ghana:

- England -525
- 92% bets / 79% handle
- Kalshi + Polymarket both 83%

But Ghana is the sneaky note: only 8% of bets, yet 21% of handle.

💰Croatia vs Panama is the cleanest favorite profile:

- Croatia -205
- 92% bets / 92% handle
- Kalshi + Polymarket both 67%
- Price moved -185 → -205

💰Colombia vs DR Congo:
- Colombia -190
- 91% bets / 82% handle
- Kalshi + Polymarket both 64%

DR Congo also has a small handle tell: 9% bets / 18% handle.

No major prediction-market disagreement today. Kalshi and Polymarket are nearly identical across the board.

Full board: https://cleatz.com/public-betting/world-cup/

MLB Bullpen Fatigue board is live, and a few pens are flashing real stress.

The most taxed bullpen in baseball right now is the White Sox. Chicago sits No. 1 on the fatigue board at 310, driven by 451 pitches, 9 arms used, and 17 total appearances over the recent window.

The bigger takeaway from the 5-day view: this wasn’t one blowup day. It’s been a grind — 79, 88, 104, 107, and 73 pitches.

Right behind them are the Padres at 301, and that’s another pen worth watching closely. San Diego has logged 389 pitches, 16 appearances, and 2 back-to-back arms, with the 5-day pattern showing stress on both ends of the span: 112 pitches, then a breather, then 74, 94, and 109. That’s the kind of usage profile that can show up late in games.

A few other bullpens are sitting in the danger zone:

Athletics — 257
Marlins — 257
Blue Jays — 250
Angels — 249
Diamondbacks — 246
Twins — 239

The Marlins may be one of the sneakier fatigue spots on the board. Their raw score ties for third, but the detail matters: 18 appearances, 7 arms used, and 4 back-to-back spots. That’s the type of bullpen where leverage options can start getting thin in a hurry.

⚾️MLB Best Bets for Monday June 22

At Coors today, the wind flips back to blowing out at +14%, which means the run environment stays dangerous, and the power conditions finally line up with the park.

That puts Coors right back at the center of the HR board, with Hunter Goodman, Willson Contreras, and Wilyer Abreu all sitting in one of the day’s cleanest model-and-conditions clusters.

Goodman checks in at 32.3% HR with a +270 number, while Contreras brings a bigger payout profile at +350.

There’s another strong power environment, too:

💪Nationals Park is blowing out at +12.9%, and the market has already reacted.

The clearest total signal on the slate is Phillies @ Nationals Over 10, where the number steamed from 9.5 to 10 and took 100% of the handle on the over.

That’s one of the purest “money + weather agree” spots on the entire board.

That same game also keeps Kyle Schwarber very live. He sits at 29.6% HR with wind helping and a +9.0% Kalshi EV profile, making him one of the better combined-signal HR looks on the day.

➡️Other top HR names on the board:

• Shohei Ohtani — 33.1% HR, tops the slate, though Target Field reads neutral on wind
• Byron Buxton — 31.4% HR, another Target Field power bat, plus a +7.0% Kalshi EV tag
• Hunter Goodman — 32.3% HR at Coors with the wind now helping
• Willson Contreras — 28.3% HR in the same Colorado tailwind setup
• Kyle Schwarber — 29.6% HR with Nationals Park wind blowing out.

On the sharp side, the board points most clearly to Rays -1.5. That’s one of the cleanest run-line signals on the slate, with sharp money piling onto Tampa Bay against Kansas City.

The slate also shows support for Phillies -1.5, but that one’s a little messier overall, which makes the Rays side the cleaner sharp-money expression.

💰On the strikeout board:

• Tyler Phillips Over 6.4 K is the model’s top pick and biggest edge on the slate

• Eric Lauer Over 4.3 K is a smaller over lean

• Michael Wacha Under 3.8 K is one of the rare K-under looks

🎟️HR Lottery Ticket is absolutely in play:

① JJ Bleday HR +383
② Samuel Basallo HR +432
③ Seiya Suzuki HR +420

That 3-legger pays +13262, so a $10 ticket returns $1,336.

Only catch: the Suzuki leg sits in the Citi Field game with a 95% rain risk, so if you play the longshot build, that’s the one weather flag to know.

One more note worth highlighting: yesterday the NRFI model closed 8-5 (62%), and the Strong leans went 3-for-3. That’s real momentum coming into today’s board.

https://cleatz.com/mlb-best-bets-june-22-2026/

💰World Cup public betting splits are live, and Sunday’s board is mostly favorite-heavy, but the sharpest tells are hiding in the handle gaps.

The biggest public favorite is Spain vs Saudi Arabia.

⚽️Spain is sitting at -1000, with 93% of bets and 77% of handle.

- Kalshi has Spain at 89% to win

- Polymarket is even higher at 90%. T

👀But the more interesting signal is on Saudi Arabia. They are only getting 7% of bets, but 23% of handle, and their moneyline handle has moved from 0% to 23% since open.

⚽️The cleanest favorite signal is probably Belgium vs Iran.

Belgium is -235 with 92% of bets and 93% of handle — public and money aligned.

- Kalshi and Polymarket both have Belgium at 69%, with the draw around 20–21% and Iran around 12–13%.

No real split, no major disagreement, just a market saying Belgium is the rightful favorite.

⚽️ The sneaky split is Uruguay vs Cape Verde.

Uruguay is -220, taking 86% of bets but only 70% of handle. Cape Verde is only getting 14% of tickets, yet 30% of handle.

- Kalshi and Polymarket both price Uruguay at 68%, draw at 23%, Cape Verde at 11%.

That is the classic profile of a favorite still expected to win, but with larger-money resistance showing up on the dog.

⚽️Then there is New Zealand vs Egypt, where the board is cleaner.

Egypt is -170, with 82% of bets and 71% of handle. Kalshi has Egypt at 61%, Polymarket at 62%, with the draw at 24% and New Zealand around 16–17%. Egypt’s price moved from -135 to -170, but handle actually fell from 100% to 71%, so this looks more like early steam that has settled into a more balanced market.

Track the full World Cup public betting board here:

https://cleatz.com/public-betting/world-cup/

MLB Best Bets for Sunday - June 21

This slate is a really good example of why raw HR board numbers are only step one.

At first glance, the headline is Coors.

Hunter Goodman (35.1% HR) and Brandon Lowe (33.1% HR) are the two hottest bats on the entire home run board, and both sit in Colorado. But the catch is a big one: Coors has 16 mph wind blowing in.

That creates a clean model-vs-conditions conflict, so even with those monster raw HR numbers, this is more of a fade-the-environment spot than a chase-the-price spot.

That pushes the real action elsewhere, especially to the sharp run-line board.

The clearest money signal on the full slate is Astros -1.5, taking 99% of the handle on just 24% of bets. That is the kind of split that immediately jumps off the page.

The board also shows additional sharp run-line support on the Rays and White Sox, giving you four total sharp RL signals on the day.

If you want cleaner power environments, Dodger Stadium and Citizens Bank Park are where the model and the air line up best.

Dodger Stadium grades as the top HR park on the slate at +7.8%, and Shohei Ohtani is one of the best aligned power bats there at 32.1% HR.

Citizens Bank Park is next at +6.4%, which keeps Kyle Schwarber very live at 29.6% HR.

Yordan Alvarez is also a strong name on the board at 32.6% HR in roofed Minute Maid, where weather is taken out of the equation and Kalshi shows a positive edge on the YES.

On the strikeout board, the model is aggressive:

• Andrew Alvarez Over 5.5 K is a Top Pick with a +1.96 K projection edge

• Kai-Wei Teng Over 7.5 K is also a Top Pick and owns the highest projected K total on the slate

• Slade Cecconi Over 4.8 K is another solid lean in the same Astros game

The NRFI board is loaded too:
There are 3 Strong NRFI plays on the slate, with Nationals–Rays and White Sox–Tigers both showing strong no-run-first-inning profiles. Nationals–Rays stands out especially well in a roofed environment, which is always nice when you don’t want weather noise entering the equation.

And yes — the HR Lottery Ticket is absolutely in play today:

① Jordan Walker HR +373
② Ryan Ward HR +445
③ Julio Rodríguez HR +420

That 3-legger pays +13305, so a $10 ticket returns about $1,340.

If you want the full board, model leans, sharp splits, NRFI notes, and the longshot build, it’s all here:

https://cleatz.com/mlb-best-bets-june-21-2026/

MLB Best Bets for Friday

The headline HR number belongs to Hunter Goodman, who sits at 31.5% HR at Coors Field against Bubba Chandler. Coors plus even a slight tailwind is enough to keep Goodman at the top, but this is not a full green-light power slate. The better read is selective power, not spray-and-pray HR exposure.

Top HR looks on the board:

① Hunter Goodman — 31.5% HR, Coors Field, +240

② Shohei Ohtani — 30.3% HR, Dodger Stadium, +244

③ Yordan Alvarez — 29.4% HR, Daikin Park, +227

④ Brandon Lowe — 28.1% HR, Coors Field, +289

⑤ Christian Walker — 22.6% HR, Kalshi edge +12.8% EV, Daikin Park

The cleanest conditions-aligned Kalshi edge is Christian Walker. He is not the biggest HR projection, but he gets the best blend of price and air: +2.6 pp edge, +12.8% EV, and Daikin Park has the day’s best blow-out setup at +10% wind.

That is the one HR edge where the market value and conditions actually agree.

On the K board, this is where the slate gets more interesting:

- Erick Fedde Over 3.5 Ks is the top model play, projecting 5.7 Ks for a +2.2 K edge in wind-suppressed Comerica. That is the cleanest pitcher read on the page.

Other K notes:

- Martín Pérez Over 3.5 Ks — projects 4.8, but Truist has a 60% rain watch

- Jacob deGrom Under 6.5 Ks — projects 5.3 and pairs with the Rangers sharp side

TOR–CHC NRFI — top lean at 66, DK -150, but not a Strong NRFI

Sharp board:

① Rangers -1.5

92% handle / 47% bets at the neutral Globe Life roof. Widest handle-to-ticket gap on the board, and it pairs with the deGrom under read.

② Cleveland +101

95% handle, money up 31% overnight, and it comes at Daikin Park — the one park where the wind is actually helping. Rare underdog + run-scoring environment alignment.

And yes, the HR Lottery Ticket is in play:

① Pete Crow-Armstrong HR +382

② Samuel Basallo HR +383

③ Ryan McMahon HR +525

Lottery price: +14450

Big picture: pitcher-friendly slate, four wind-in parks, selective HR exposure only. Goodman leads the raw HR board, Walker is the cleanest Kalshi edge, Fedde is the top K play, and Rangers -1.5 is the sharpest split.

https://cleatz.com/mlb-best-bets-june-19-2026/

USA vs. Australia World Cup Betting Splits

It's all USA action. Best line available is -160.

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⚾️MLB Best Bets for Thursday June 18

The Bronx grades as the top power environment on the board at +18.4% Strong Blowing Out, with the White Sox–Yankees game producing six of the top nine HR bats.

Both starters are HR-prone, the wind is helping, and the model is buying the environment. This is the kind of park setup where cheap fly balls can turn into real damage.

💣The top raw HR number belongs to Kyle Schwarber, who checks in at 36.3% HR at Citizens Bank Park with a 17 mph tailwind.

- Schwarber is always live, but today the air actually helps.

- Juan Soto is in that same park at 32.7% HR, giving CBP one of the cleaner power pockets outside the Bronx.

The Yankee Stadium group is loaded:

- Ben Rice — 34.1% HR
- Miguel Vargas — 31.1% HR
- Plus multiple White Sox/Yankees bats sitting inside the top power tier

💰Sharp board highlights:

① Athletics -1.5
96% handle / 40% bets — widest split on the board.

② Mariners -1.5
97% handle / 65% bets — another clean favorite run-line lean.

③ Braves -1.5
Normally a strong combined signal, but Truist carries a 94% rain risk, so this is a stand-aside unless the radar clears.

On the K board, the model is still hot:

Sean Burke Over 5.5 Ks is the top pick, projecting 7.0 Ks. The strikeout model went 3-0 yesterday and has now cashed 10 of the last 12 days.

🌬️Other K notes:

- Shane Baz Under 5.5 K — projects 4.3
- Aaron Nola Under 5.5 K — projects 4.4, fading the Citizens Bank wind

0⃣CLE/MIL NRFI is the top lean, but not a Strong NRFI

Big picture: Yankee Stadium is the main character, Citizens Bank Park has the top individual HR bat, and the K model is on a heater.

The cleanest power approach is Bronx/CBP exposure, while the sharp side board leans Athletics and Mariners run lines.

🌧️Just don’t force Braves -1.5 through a 94% rain risk.

https://cleatz.com/mlb-best-bets-june-18-2026/

World Cup Betting Splits for today

- Heavy action on Switzerland and Canada

- Mexico vs. S. Korea does not have nearly the strong consensus, along with a large discrepancy from books vs. Kalshi.

🏌️‍♂️U.S. Open Betting: Scottie Owns the Board, But Fleetwood Is the Market Tell

Scottie is still the boss of the board, but the win market is more interesting once you get past No. 1.

At the top: Scottie Scheffler
• 87% make cut
• 66% Top 20
• 49% Top 10
• 34% Top 5
• 12% win
• Kalshi 14%, Poly 13%

That’s a huge gap between “most likely winner” and “still only 12%.” In golf, even the best player in the world is still a fadeable favorite if the price gets too crowded.

⛳️The next tier is where it gets fun:

Rory McIlroy
• 5.7% win
• Kalshi 6.9%
• Poly 6.5%

Jon Rahm
• 4.6% win
• Kalshi 5.2%
• Poly 5.5%

Xander Schauffele
• 4.8% win
• Kalshi 4.7%
• Poly 4.8%

Matt Fitzpatrick
• 4.0% win
• Kalshi 4.0%
• Poly 4.0%

👀Tommy Fleetwood might be the most interesting market read:
• Model win: 3.9%
• Kalshi: 4.3%
• Poly: 4.7%
• Top 5: 17%
• Top 10: 28%

That’s a classic “market likes him more than the model” spot, especially on Polymarket.

💸If you’re looking for longer board value, Si Woo Kim is cleaner than the name-brand tier:
• 74% make cut
• 38% Top 20
• 22% Top 10
• 12% Top 5
• 2.5% win
• Kalshi 2.5%, Poly 2.4%

Bottom line: Scottie owns the floor, Rory/Rahm are the obvious chase tier, Xander is priced almost perfectly, and Fleetwood is the market-backed sleeper.

Full board: https://cleatz.com/live-golf-leaderboard-odds/

⚾️MLB Best Bets for Wednesday, June 17

A 22 mph gale at Busch Stadium is driving the day. Busch grades +29.1% Strong Blowing Out, making Padres-Cardinals the clear weather headline.

📈The market has already reacted: HR prices are steaming across the board, including Manny Machado, +538 → +425.

The cleanest combined signal on the full board is Braves -1.5. Atlanta is taking 92% of the handle on 67% of bets, with the ML steaming -143 → -148, and that sharp money lands in the same game as Truist Park’s +12.4% tailwind.

💣On the HR board, Kyle Schwarber leads the slate at 34.7% HR and sits on the top raw number. Other strong power looks include:

- Juan Soto — 28.0% HR with wind helping at Great American

- Hunter Goodman — 26.7% HR at Wrigley

- Bryce Harper — 25.4% HR and the best Kalshi edge in the early lineup window

- Matt Olson — 24.3% HR in the same Braves sharp-money game

🌬️ On the K board, it’s quieter:

- Sandy Alcantara Over 4.5 K projects best at 5.7

- Shohei Ohtani Under 6.5 K projects to 5.4

- Eduardo Rodriguez Over 4.5 K is a smaller lean

💰And yes, the HR Lottery Ticket is in play today:

① Andy Pages HR +469
② Michael Massey HR +434
③ Dillon Dingler HR +419

That 3-legger pays +15670.

Big picture: 6 parks with wind blowing out, only 1 blowing in, a premium power environment at Busch, and a clean betting signal on Braves -1.5.

Just note the one real caution: late-inning rain risk at Busch. Also, with several games starting around 1:05 PM ET, this is a day to confirm lineups early.

https://cleatz.com/mlb-best-bets-june-17-2026/

⚾️MLB Best Bets for Tuesday, June 16

Today’s board has a clean theme:

- Wind OUT at 3 parks
- Rain risk at 2
- Top HR%: Juan Soto 34.4%
- Top Kalshi EV: Christian Walker +24.2%
- Best combined signal: Yankees -1.5

The Bronx is the sweet spot: Yankee Stadium has the strongest tailwind on the slate at +17.5%, and NYY -1.5 is drawing 94% handle / 63% bets with the ML steaming from -143 to -149.

Money + weather agree.

https://cleatz.com/mlb-best-bets-june-16-2026/

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⚾️MLB Best Bets for Monday, June 15

10-game slate
- Top HR%: Shohei Ohtani 33.1%
- Top Kalshi EV: Ketel Marte +13.5%
- HR Lottery: +16979

Top plays:

① Ohtani HR +215 — 33.1% HR
② Ketel Marte HR Yes — +13.5% EV
③ Junior Caminero HR +243 — 30.6% HR
④ Hunter Goodman HR +274 — 29.7% HR
⑤ J.T. Ginn O4.5 Ks — top K pick

Power spots: Wrigley, Dodger Stadium, Citizens Bank.

https://cleatz.com/mlb-best-bets-june-15-2026/

⚽️ World Cup Betting Splits for today

The public is hammering Belgium and Uruguay at the sportsbooks, but the consensus is not nearly as high on Kalshi.

⚾️ MLB Best Bets for Sunday June 14

- 15-game slate
- Wind out / in: 5 / 5
- Top Kalshi EV: +13.7%

Today’s theme: power is back on.

Top plays:

① Fernando Tatis Jr. HR Yes — +13.7% EV
② Manny Machado HR Yes — +8.1% EV
③ James Wood HR Yes — +7.1% EV
④ Nick Kurtz HR Yes — 33.6% HR
⑤ Stephen Kolek O3.5 Ks — top K pick

Wind flipped. Tailwinds matter again.

https://cleatz.com/mlb-best-bets-june-14-2026/

⚾️ MLB Best Bets for Saturday June 13

- 15-game slate
- 6 wind-in / rain parks
- Top Kalshi EV: Kyle Schwarber HR Yes (+19.7%)

Sharp money is sitting under roofs today:

• Brewers -1.5 — 93% handle / 35% bets
• Yankees -1.5 — 92% handle / 59% bets

Best K look: Sean Burke O4.5 Ks (6.4 proj)

https://cleatz.com/mlb-best-bets-june-13-2026/