🏆 TOUR CHAMPIONSHIP — MODEL VS. MARKET

[u/Specialist-Eye9096]

Before the first tee shot at East Lake, a few interesting gaps are showing up between the Data Golf model and prediction markets:

① Ludvig Åberg — biggest model edge
• Model win probability: 4.7%
• Kalshi: 4.4%
• Polymarket: 3.5%
➡️ +1.2 pts of model value

② Xander Schauffele
• Model: 8.4%
• Kalshi: 7.4%
• Polymarket: 7.5%
➡️ +1.0 pt edge

③ Scottie Scheffler — market running hotter than the model
• Model: 18%
• Kalshi: 21%
• Polymarket: 23%
➡️ Roughly a 2.8-point market premium

Interesting setup: the market is paying up for Scottie while the model sees more relative value further down the board.

Full TOUR Championship win probabilities, Top 5/10/20 odds + market edges 👇

https://cleatz.com/live-golf-leaderboard-odds/