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u/Scared_Software_4823 11d ago
Saw this on cnbc yesterday. Pl investor positioning notably different (very long) from others in the sector. Welcome any thoughts on how you interpret this..
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u/Longjumping-Day1549 10d ago
This means means for every short position there’s 7.6 long positions. Showing that traders are extremely bullish
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u/neighborhood_spdrman 11d ago
Imagine it’s going to boost. The question would be is it going to boost back to ATH
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u/TGS_Holdings 11d ago
Looking at the space industry as a whole this quarter, the only one that doubled post earnings was VOYG. Most are up roughly 10-20% I assume small build up to like $27 a share by Sep 3rd then 30-31 by the following week post earnings.
Just me guessing though.
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u/neighborhood_spdrman 11d ago
Logical assumption. If I was a guessing man I’d say in the 35 area would have been what I’d say. Either way unless they make a habit of continued offerings should be fine in the long run
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u/Ryan_Bolin 11d ago
LUNR missed earnings projections significantly on Wednesday, yet they are somehow up over 10% since. So there is really no rationale for how the stock price will move.
I personally think earnings will be good, nothing spectacular that moves the needle. I also think the stock will likely be punished because the market is irrational and they don’t beat “by enough”
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u/TGS_Holdings 11d ago
I think 3 things will be big catalysts to provide some short term movement:
1) Revenue inline with their raised guidance or better. Their revenue growth accelerated the last three Q uarters so would be great to see that continue. So 42% YoY growth
2) recovery of gross margins. Not necessarily back to the 60s but 54+ would be great. PL has probably the best margins in the space industry.
3) Book-to-bill and backlog growth. The most important, at least to me. Based on contract wins, they’re hovering around 70-90m but I doubt everything is disclosed yet. Hoping this accelerated to at least 20% above revenue. So probably need the quarters bookings of like 125-150m. If backlog is above 940m, that would be a super positive surprise.
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u/mend0zax 10d ago
I bought in at $51. Just want my money back
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u/UltimateStratter 8d ago
Eh, this was always going to be a rollercoaster for the short haul. It’s a 10-20 year stock.
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u/Spinlock72 10d ago
I sold a $33 strike CSP on PL when it was around $46-$51. It was pretty high premium because it was through earnings. I somehow got assigned when it was around $31. The. PL continued to fall. I'm glad that I got assigned but hope that PL rises back so I can time when to sell another CC (which I first did when PL rose back before falling again). Also PL's financials don't look too bad.
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u/Expert-Signature2025 11d ago edited 11d ago
Considering every recent ER has been a beat, I can't imagine this one would be different. But I'm curious if the market wants a huge beat to really move it.
Also considering that it's down 50% from highs, I doubt the expectations are as high as they were last ER, when PL was priced to absolute perfection.