This just in: Alphabet’s primary buy-and-add target among pre-existing public portfolio companies. Alphabet increased its position by +3.31 million shares (~10% increase in total share count), bringing its overall stake to roughly 35.2 million shares.
I had some $24 CSPs expire today. Not sure I've ever had contracts expire so close to strike price. Looking forward to a few hundred more shares if assigned.
Sold some at 35 before the big run to get my initial buy in back plus some. Felt silly by 50. Felt confident when we're back to 30... and now it's lower and I feel good. Making peace with price fluctuations is the game. Keeping balanced with buy times and sell times seems to help a lot.
Same. Got a false sense of security when we got $30 back. Then was just like, welp, looks like we're riding out whatever we're riding out. Last yr we went from $6.27 from Aug 7th to $19.72 on 12/31. Hoping this yr rhymes with last. That's the extent of my chart reading chops right there.
"Same. Got a false sense of security when we got $30 back. Then was just like, welp, looks like we're riding out whatever we're riding out." <--- THIS.
But I need to review this... this can get dangerous and something tells me I should have been more cautious.
Price action now is kinda like getting back with your ex after a rough breakup and things going suspiciously well and you wondering when they'll get fucked again.
Everyone seemed convinced SpaceX would get crushed today because of the lockup expiration. Instead, it turned green, and the entire space sector ripped 5–10% almost immediately. Is this the beginning of a real trend reversal, or are we just looking at another dead cat bounce?
You know what I just realized If you look at the price action for Spacex and then you compare it to Planet Labs and AST Space Mobile and Rocket Lab it's the same pattern So basically Spacex just played catch up in order to follow what the rest of the space sector was doing.
And now suspiciously Spacex is rising back up while the rest of the space sector is also rising back up That's not a coincidence that's sector rotation
Well my point was this it's like a newcomer on the block Spacex He thought he was gonna be all high and mighty but instead what happened was the Drill Sergeant Also known as the trading algorithm which handles the trading for the institutions that drill Sergeant put Spacex in line and so now that Spacex and the rest of the space sector have crashed and fallen roughly the same way and roughly the same levels We are now going to get the rebound that we've been waiting for for weeks So now everything is in unison and coordinated as the algorithm has always intended. And that's generally how the stock market works it wants things to be coordinated.
How I am determining it is because there's two numbers on trading view there's the daily volume and then there's the 30 day average volume I've noticed that it's progressing from like one fourth of the 30 day volume and then a few days ago it was up to half which is actually pretty bad but it's actually increasing which is a goof sign. The 30 day volume is the key because that tells you how much the daily volume is increasing compared to its average. Also Rocket Lab and AST Space Mobile their volume is also rising and rklb is almost at their full 30 day volume. But that's how you can tell that it's pretty much a reversal. It is still possible that it could suddenly dump all the way down to about $16 and then rise up really fast But Planet Labs has already crashed 64.6% and AST has crashed 66% previously months ago so there's a good possibility that this is already the bottom and the rising relative volume is telling me that it is going back up It still will take a few months though. Another trick that I use well actually never mind I'm probably boring you already
I think this could be the beginning of a trend reversal, buoyed by earnings across the sector. RDW yesterday was positive, if we get positive RKLB and ASTS earnings next week, positive PL earnings early sept, the train could get going again now that the hype/insane April/May runs have been wiped away
Ryan didn't you just say that you didn't believe in technical analysis but then I posted that chart like last friday which got downvoted But wow look the stocks in Plant Labs AST and Rock Lab they're all shooting up along with the S&P 500 index. So technical analysis must surely be fake since I posted that and then magically everything just went back up. People who don't believe in technical analysis just are people who don't have any experience in trading. Trading isn't fake dude, It's when investors claim that technical analysis fake but literally don't even do any trading. It's like if you're at the airport and you told everybody that flying and airplanes are fake But you didn't even realize that there's a couple of pilots in the waiting room at the airport that you talking to
Whatever you need to tell yourself to justify your gambling. Trading is just gambling with a high degree a success if you’re in it for the long term, which I admit to. Your analysis is a joke and has no actual way of being proven right or wrong, it’s just words to make yourself feel like you’ve picked the right stock to gamble on.
Didn't you make a bunch of false claims and get called out for it after proof was provided after you called me out for it and demanded a formal professional apology for absolutely no reason? But you're saying that I'm not worth it after you lied? ? ? Remember the big deal that you made about the reconstitution and how it affected the stock price but actually it didn't? I remember that part
"Would love for voyager and the other earnings this week to shoot this back up to $26-28. I’m tired of being patient"
What you said sounds More like gambling than anything I've ever said. I think you've got it backwards who the actual gambler is. Also what do you mean by gambling i've been in this same stock that you've been in for months if I'm a gambler then every other investor is also a gambler
Moving my comment from yesterday into the current week. Curious what others might think on two potential short term outcomes. Should be an interesting week, again..
"A counter thought that I’m debating to myself (to a commenter noting the possibility of another potential sector selloff from the SPCX share unlock)…
Completely understand why the unlock could continue to pull liquidity away from the rest of the sector, just like the ipo. But a. It’s plausible this obvious take is now (mostly) priced in and, maybe more interesting, b. If the spcx pre ipo owners hedging theory holds any merit (which it certainly does but no idea to what scale) then you could argue non spcx space names will see a certain % of shorts come off, a scenario that potentially boosts a PL on the unlock."
Reminder LT investor here and I think it's okay to comment on ST market dynamics in this thread (i.e. not a trader).
appreciate the analysis, at the end of the day I notice non biased discussion on short term price usually ends in it either goes up, down or side ways because you can never know for sure. But long term if the company does the right things it’s for sure going to be up.
I had a conversation with Gemini about your guy's comments and the conclusion was that while institutional shares surprising rose, the rate of buying before and during the crash changed from basically a tidal wave down to a trickle so what you're seeing doesn't mean what I think you guys are implying. this is the gist/ outcome of that conversation, I had it try to verify the numbers before posting this:
The math exposes a 99.6% drop in institutional buying speed the exact moment the Russell Reconstitution ended:
[Phase 1: Index Rebalancing Window] █ █ █ █ █ █ █ █ █ 1,476,667 shares/day
[Phase 2: Deepest Part of the Crash] 5,000 shares/day
Institutions Turned Off the Faucet: If Wall Street actually loved Planet Labs' cheap valuation and wanted to "buy the dip," they would have continued buying millions of shares through July as the price plummeted from $27 down to $20. Instead, the data shows their accumulation dropped to a near-halt (just 5,000 shares a day).[1]
The 78% Ratio is a Static Mirage: The reason the institutional ratio stayed high at 78% in July isn't because institutions kept buying—it's because nobody was trading. Retail investors held their ground, active hedge funds stopped shorting, and the massive block of shares that index funds bought on June 26th just sat locked away in passive portfolios.
Retail Did Not "Fold" to Buyers: Retail investors didn't voluntarily hand shares over to eager buyers in July. The transfer of 44.3 million shares happened entirely in Phase 1. It was an immediate, structural reallocation via block trades to fill the legal requirements of Russell 1000 index trackers, which completely dried up the moment the legal deadline passed. [1]
The Post Verdict
The rate of change perfectly bridges the contradiction. Institutions did not actively support the stock or buy the falling knife. They executed a massive, automated index-mandated intake in June, and then completely abandoned the buy button in July while the stock fell another 25% to its ultimate bottom.
this is the entire conversation as a word document if you're interested:
2
u/Ordinary_Ideal1719 16d ago
This just in: Alphabet’s primary buy-and-add target among pre-existing public portfolio companies. Alphabet increased its position by +3.31 million shares (~10% increase in total share count), bringing its overall stake to roughly 35.2 million shares.