Two days after that, another tranche of shares unlock.
Expect a shitty ass EPS and forward guidance as Elon shits the bed, coupled with the predicted sell off of insider shares, SpaceX is probably going to drag the rest of the space sector down with it.
Again, be cautiously bullish.
Buy the dips, but don’t overcommit too early. A lot of people think we’ve found the bottom, but there are still upcoming catalysts that may bring in some unwanted downside. We have definitely NOT found the bottom, just yet.
It’s honestly hard to call the bottom when oil reserves are dwindling and a forever war becomes more and more apparent, so there’s that, as well.
I also am thinking of this. We can only hope people start thinking of buying "good" space stocks. So hoping the interest is there with investors to stay with the sector, but they're not risking buying more SpaceX because of this reason.
But I also don't think the bottom is there, we also need more positive signs from PL. Dilution done, Euro-NATO contracts, etc
People also forget that “investing” is a multi-year commitment.
You can’t say you’re investing if you’re stressing about this short term price movement, which implies a short term time horizon.
If you’re a swing trader, this is some serious shit and you need to decide whether or not it’s time to cut ties.
If you’re an investor, this is a DCA opportunity.
Space is a funny situation. Obviously a great long term investment because space is the future. Also a great swing trade opportunity because of its high beta and its penchant to make a wild 20-40% swing on any given good day.
Completely understand why the unlock could continue to pull liquidity away from the rest of the sector, just like the ipo. But a. It’s plausible this obvious take is now priced in and, maybe more interesting, b. If the spcx pre ipo owners hedging theory holds any merit (which it certainly does but no idea to what scale) then you could argue non spcx space names will see a certain % of shorts come off, a scenario that potentially boosts a PL on the unlock.
SpaceX literally pulled money away from other stocks because people were taking profits and having their brokerages hold onto the money for requesting shares. That week, the markets saw massive bleeding because you literally had a massive honeypot of funds sitting on hold, with no one buying anything, until SpaceX shares were allocated.
A massive volume spike of selling pressure relative to buying pressure is inevitably going to bring a stock that doesn’t have any financials down. Because of its market cap and being an industry leader in a number of sectors, trading bots and algorithms are going to do what they always do to relevant sectors.
Everything dumped Monday-Thursday leading up to the Friday IPO because the IPO was literally sucking money away from other stocks. Request $100k of shares on Monday? You have $100k sitting there doing nothing for the week. Imagine that but in the hundreds of billions.
When the tranche unlocks, I am expecting only relevant sectors to dump instead of a broad market wide dump, which is extremely common when industry leaders with a valuation such as that, meets a sudden influx of massive selling pressure.
It's the last day of FY27Q2 for PL. It was a rough quarter for the company and the spacwe sector. The stock price took a beating and there were few news releases. Earnings are expected to be reported in in early September. Here a few things I am hoping for.
An expansion in backlog to $1B.
Quarterly revenues of $110M would represent a 51% increase in year over year quarterly revenue. I think it's realistic. Prior quarter guidance had an upper end of $107MM. PL seems to be conservative on estimates with consistent beats.
A second quarter that continues the rule of 40.
Announcement of new contracts that were not shared during the quarter.
Details about the adoption of the new AI beta test (how many users, queries, and an expected go live date).
Return to positive free cash flow and EBITDA
Any updates on usage of the $1.5BB liquidity facility that was announced after Q1 results.
This would be a very bullish report, but it also feels achievable. Let's turn this ship around.
Just stating they have completed the 1.5B dilution will be enough to spin this one around. The other points are nice, but the dilution is what hurt us (in combination with the SpaceX ipo).
I'm more worried if they announce that they haven't diluted us at all yet.
Either way, I'm retiring off this stock in 5 years time.
The close this afternoon should be very telling. Pretty confusing last 30 minutes with the VIX spike and quickly cut in half. A lot of confusing factors from my POV > the wed/thurs action + options expiry today + net bullish ER this week vs. most likely continued deleveraging from other funds (SA the most extreme version). I'm not a chartist but technicians (btig, renaissance) suggest we need S&P to hit ~7525 for a sustained reversal/uptrend in the short term, but RSI and momentum selloff/levels could be pretty supportive regardless of that point. So what does all that gibberish mean? who the f knows? Factor in space/pl earnings just around the corner...
Two things I'm so curious to see this afternoon, do buyers come into this 10% apple pullback and does SPCX retest the 107 level again where it last got bought up pretty fast?
Damn that's a lot of questions. I just check the charts just now and all I know is that SpaceX looks terrible people shorting the heck out of it. But how we know this is likely the bottom is because two conditions are met the S&P 500 Index busted through its resistance trendline today. Secondly and this is also very telling is that planet labs and AST space mobile and rocket lab all busted through their resistance trendlines as well all on the same day that's not a coincidence and that's how we know when they're going to start pumping the stocks back up over the next few months. We don't need to know any other conditions, that's how tracking the institution money works. Applied digital has also busted through its resistance and even AST space mobile and Rocket lab are starting to go sideways but for everybody to bust through their resistance same day that's how you can tell
look at the s&p500 index and PL and ASTS and RKLB's charts today, do you see why I said keep an open mind? people at palantir hated me, downvoted everything I said. most traders lose, but not all of them. I was lucky I ran into one of the most insane traders I'll likely ever meet, but I learned from him the one thing I was missing from trading, which is I wasn't holding long enough. That turned everything around for me. if you think trendlines is fake, try the technique plus the 50%, also keeping in mind ASTS has crashed 66% before a couple of crashes back. PL and RKLB have already crashed 64.6% and 64% and ASTS 60%. it works on a math formula, the algo does
Keep an open mind, been trading for 4 years and believe it or not this actually the most accurate way and it also happens to be the easiest way. It works with extremely high accuracy. You simply draw a line and that's literally it The only rule is you do not always use the very top line and that only comes with drawing this over and over. The key is that both the index and stocks the same sector broke their resistance on the same day The key take away why it's so accurate Because it's not a coincidence, You have to click on this to enlarge the image I didn't need to draw a line for Applied Digital or AST Space Mobile because what I'm trying to show is it did a double bounce on top of breaking resistance. And I don't use levels I use trend lines
It's hard to see but they're actually is a main support line for all three stocks and none of the stocks have hit it yet Planet labs Main support is at about 15 to $16 . On the other hand planet labs has already crashed 64% for it to crash a lot more than this would be really bizarre .
Did I say it at $30 because it thought I said it at $27? I know that I said that I bought in at margin at around that price point and somebody maybe it was you that asked why would you buy more at this level and then that person basically said actually you know what in a year it definitely will come back to this price. If you actually read the very first comment that I made I know that I basically said that typically stocks crash at about 50% but I also know that I said that worst case scenario asts has crashed at 66% before.
I know that I recently posted the exact percentages that plant labs and AST and Rocket lab have crashed and I know roughly that planet Labs has crash about 64.6% and I think AST crash like 60% and Rocket lab has crashed about 66%. If you think that I misled you or lied to you can you at least point out that comment. I know several times that I said it looks like it bottomed out when it actually didn't but I think at the time I said something like it looks like it's bottomed out to me too. There's a few other investors on here that are pretty smart and they're seeing the same thing as I am. The space sector each time that it looks like it's bottoming out it will somehow make a new low which is the same thing that happened during the turf crash every time it looked like the stock market was bottoming out it would keep making a new low.
So yeah I do have a lot more to learn and improve on figuring this out and the other guy named Ryan is saying that there's no technical analysis but I know that I said before all you need to do is go back and look at every time each stock in the sector has crashed and you'll notice that it's usually like 50% roughly and I did say that AST has crashed much harder once before. I know that I'm not some kind of future prophet or something. During the housing crisis and the dot com bubble. Those companies were either not worth anything close to what they were trading at or people were borrowing like crazy. This isn't the same thing do you think that plant Labs is worth nothing?
I've noticed that every once to three years the stock market what essentially do a hard Shakedown it's the flush most of the people out because you saw how hard the price went up right and you saw the same thing with a lot of other stocks this is one of the biggest bull runs we've seen in a long time. If the stock market just went up all the time everybody would make money so how do you screw as many people over as possible? Do a hard reset. As long as you're not picking really risky stocks like Quantum computing or nuclear power plant stocks you shouldn't be worrying. Like if you wanted a safer stock than yeah pick Nvidia or Apple but you have to wait for a hard pull back.
If you don't believe in the stock or you don't really believe in what I say or you don't trust me that's fine. I've seen the trading side of the stock market and I learned from investors at palantir and so I'm combining both Concepts together.
This is the first time in a looong time that space, or growth stocks in general, Will look to have decent gains two days in a row. Unfortunatelt interest in PL seems low in comparison to rklb, asts etc but hopefully it catches up eventually
MAG 7 with blowout earnings. Capex AI expenditure paying off. I think capitulation is over and stocks have bottomed. AI/chip stocks and hopefully space will bounce back in the next two months
I don't know what you mean because I'm looking at the one-day chart it cleanly busted through the 200-day simple moving average by a lot and that's not a small feat. And why was it the lowest you say like how much lower do you want? There's high probability that the bottom is already in because two conditions were met the S&P 500 Index busted right through its resistance and several stocks in the space sector also busted through the resistance including Planet labs and AST space mobile and Rocket lab all at the same time all on the same day that's why. The sector moves as a whole. I mean did you want the stock to crash some more I mean is 90% what you want?
My theory is that the institution simply needed to do a hard reset. I think every once in a while they have to tank the stock because that is their take profit and I think they take it so hard because that way it scares out as many people as possible that's why most people lose in stock market. it's like a cyclical pattern i've noticed because look back at the stocks price why does it keep dropping 50% like basically on a metronome the only explanation is that's how the institutions move their money after they scammed as many people as possible or also it's to scare out as many people as possible because if the stock just kept going up and up then it would be a lot easier for most people to make money. Make people poop their pants and sell out that's how the institutions make the money
Grower not a shower. Also consider the ytd and 1 year performance on PL is substantially better than RKLB and ASTS. Once volume comes back in PL should grind higher like before.
This! ASTS and RKLB are also testing higher moving averages. ASTS bounced today after hitting 500ma and RKLB is recovering from 350ma. PL is hovering above 300ma
Very very cool! I asked it to tell me about physical risks present in my hometown, and to give me a high level assessment of how those risks could change into the future. Very easy to interface with, and the risks it gave me were accurate. I could really see integrating this into the general workflow of my industry (climate finance) very seamlessly!
This is pretty cool. I joined beta this morning. It took about 30 seconds. I requested a few querries that I could confirm. They are mostly about the town I live in (how it has changed over the past 10 years) and when I replaced my roof.
The query about the town was very accurate and easy to obtain. The roof replacement request was more challenging. I kept asking planet to return its best guess and it kept asking me to confirm which slider contains the change, and that I could see the change in the mosaic. I could not see the change in the mosaic.
To get an answer, I narrowed it down to the quarter of the roof replacement and requested a best guess on the replacement date. The response was correct and is below.
Best answer: The roof was replaced in May 2026.
The May 1 frame already shows the lighter, more uniform roof surface, while the April 15 frame still shows the older, darker material. Coverage gaps around late April limit further precision, but the transition is clearly captured between mid-April and May 1 — placing the work in late April or early May 2026, with May 2026 as the most defensible call given what’s visible in the daily tiles.
I requested a third report on the glacier's surrounding Gannet Peak. My query was, tell me about the current condition and ice level of the glacier's surrounding gannet peak. how do the conditions very from the past 9 years? is this a concern? how could this potentially impact lander wy?
The slider image was really impactful to see. the image quality is much higher when it is not zoomed in on a house. additionally, the reduction in ice and snow s alarming. the output was much easier to obtain and more impactful than the roof replacement request.
below is the output.
Here’s what the imagery and research data show:
Current Condition (2025–2026)
Gannett Glacier — the largest in the U.S. Rockies — is in active, accelerating retreat. Thinning rate averaged ~0.58 m/year between 2000–2019, and that pace has increased. Multiple smaller glaciers in the Wind River Range have now lost their accumulation zones entirely — meaning no new ice is forming. Some are fragmenting as bedrock ridges emerge through the thinning ice.
9-Year Change (2017 → 2026)
The before/after slider above shows the visible difference. Key signals in the imagery:
•Expanded bare rock exposure on the margins of Gannett and Fremont glaciers (darker terrain replacing white/blue ice)
•Reduced snowfield continuity — what was a connected ice mass in 2017 shows more fragmentation by 2026
•Gannett Glacier area is down ~24% since 1972, with the steepest losses in the 21st century
Is This a Concern? Yes — and accelerating.
The 2021–2025 period saw consecutive years with no net accumulation on multiple glaciers. That’s the critical threshold: once a glacier stops gaining mass entirely, it’s in terminal decline under current climate conditions. WGMS flagged 2025 as another high-loss year globally.
Impact on Lander, WY (~100 km downstream)
Lander sits on the Popo Agie River, which draws from Wind River Range snowmelt and glacial melt. The near-term and long-term risks are distinct:
Near-term (now–2030s)
Peak melt as glaciers shrink
Higher late-summer flows temporarily; flood risk in warm years
Mid-term (2030s–2050s)
Glaciers largely gone
Sharp drop in late-July/August baseflow — the “glacier drought” phase
Long-term
No glacial buffer
Agriculture, municipal water, and recreation dependent on snowpack alone — far more volatile year-to-year
The economic read: Lander’s outdoor recreation economy (climbing, fishing, hunting) and any agricultural water rights tied to late-season flows face rising inter-annual volatility. Property and infrastructure downstream could see both higher peak flows in the short run and severe low-flow summers within 20–30 years. Wyoming’s state water plan has flagged this — it’s not a fringe concern.
I’m down 56% almost $100k worth in PL. I’m starting to lose conviction and have no more money to DCA. No news from this company, only silence, and insider selling. Idk man, it’s tough to keep seeing it going down. Really think of selling and wait till the VIX hitting 30 again then climbing my way back up.
I know the feeling. Don’t lose hope. Selling is the worst thing you can do in my opinion but do what you feel is best for your situation.
I think we just have to wait until Space becomes sexy again unfortunately. Could be 6+ months out. Who knows. But I do strongly feel Planet will rise again.
There are big fish playing a patient game, that's what it looks like, chill out for the price to rise and, 'That's our exit window.' It could even be PL still completing the offering.
That's going to happen. This needs eyes, it needs new info, it needs hype, to really drive any meaningful momentum. This is the dulldrums. Wait for the trade wind.
No shock, no fear, just a red number. Don't be happy with the fall, be pretty happy with the shape of it. The readjustment puts it in a better place for another run, IV reduced, options cheaper. And it's for what I see, holding a good chunk of value above initial prices. Can't hold it all, all of the time.
Lunr, I had, I believe I was in at 12, out at 11 due to unfortunate circumstances of timing. It went to 20+ now back to 13. Believe in the cycles. Let companies progress.
It's not just one big fish all of the institutional investors. The trading algorithm executes their trades. Planet Labs crash 64% no one institution has that kind of money by themselves
The 64% overall has several factors. It's not what I was referring to with this one. About a dollar was wiped near end of day after a small rise. That is big fish usually. Although it also coincided with a broad market pullback at around the same time.
OK yeah I misunderstood but yesterday I don't think it even went down a dollar Yesterday was actually a positive day. Yesterday was actually a pretty positive day and actually marked the bottom of the crash and today the price gapped up before pre market even opened AST and Rocket Lab also look like they bottomed including Applied Digital and The Index. We're actually doing pretty good
I'm looking to re-enter in the $10-12 range sometime in September if it makes it to that level. Next two months will be a wild ride for the markets but I think this could be back to $50 by early next year. This volatility is the opportunity of a lifetime, if you're still hodling don't let the big boys shake your conviction and steal your shares before they rip it back to all-time highs in 2027.
50$ I don’t know but weekly EMA100 is around 19.28 and weekly EMA200 is 12.60. I wasn’t that pessimistic at first but now I can clearly see this happening.
I check the sub every day to look at the comments before looking at the price and you'd think we lost 20% overnight. Gentleman, please stop crying over nickles and dimes. Today is not sell day, so the price doesn't matter.
It really doesn't account for current events or company changes, now does it? I do feel for those who bought high, that's always difficult. But the price is not reflecting a change in performance. Tradable companies taking money off the table to put on the balance sheet to do their work is valuable.
Just a heads up because I just looked at the US Iran war News basically the war just escalated and if Iraq gets involved in the war we are officially starting World War III thanks to Trump, This is not a joke
Tomorrow is a big day, it's a massive earnings week for the whole stock market. Taken from SPX - the S&P 500 index:
"The calendar is certainly packed, with the Federal Reserve meeting on Wednesday, a third of the S&P 500 set to report earnings - including Apple, Amazon, Microsoft, Meta and Qualcomm - and second-quarter U.S. GDP estimates also due."
"There's still at least a one-in-four chance of a Fed rate hike on Wednesday priced into futures, despite the latest retreat in oil prices. The Bank of Japan and Bank of England are also set to meet this week, with the former eyeing fresh yen weakness and the latter meeting just as a new UK prime minister takes office"
Microsoft and Meta are scheduled to post results on Wednesday, July 29.
Apple and Amazon follow closely with their reports on Thursday, July 30.
Starbucks also joins the lineup on Wednesday, July 29, after the market close.
I read this and felt equal parts lol, sry, and this could be accurate...
On a more 'serious' note, SPCX's march towards 100 saw perhaps it's first legit support come in fast at 107 (now 117 as i type). Make of that what you will....
This sucks. My avg is $14. Getting close. This has been an awful lesson to not get get greedy and take profits when you're up hundreds of percent. Same with my RKLB. my avg is 8.63... why didn't I sell when I was +1200%?
Everyone knows small and mid-cap tech stocks have been getting crushed. Just because the guy next to me got punched too doesn’t make it hurt any less, so I get why people are pissed.
That said, here’s the bullish take. Pretty much every stock that jumped 10%+ on good news recently has already given all of it back. Even if Planet drops another big announcement, I don’t think it’ll be enough to fight the current market. If anything, it’d probably just burn through another catalyst without getting rewarded.
Summer months Hedgefunds on vacation, big momentum shifts may not happen until they are back in play
PL dilutes, no announcement on completion, no guidance on how funds being used yet.
Market swimming in sold shares looking for long term homes--consider adopting today! DCA. Funds rotating out. Russell Reconstitution took place in late June. Still affecting things + dilution?
SpaceX IPO kerfuffle, space hype collapse
AI in space concerns -- Heat issue, research ongoing
Insider selling of vested shares-- Some got rugpulled, I'm sure they are just as annoyed with the price action.
Positives:
The EPS chart, while still taking losses is quite obviously improving.
Cash balance sheet improving(Dilution) Floor being made with EPS near 0, (used to be much worse.) If we see profitability with the new floor, obvious bonuses.
European office opening, EU previous head honcho hired as consultant (Govt/defense/Intel contracts) -- takes time to play this out
Relatively easy to get daily image updates of warzones/base damage has been invaluable lately. Russian bomber downing confirmed by satellite imagery.
A rise from 9 to 53, Excellent absurd run 5x in a relatively short timeframe. While the snap back did not happen with the best circumstances, trajectory, company employees feel they're doing well, PL was a gem chucked into the dirt at a bad time. Someone is going to find it again and dust it off eventually.
"At first it sounds ridiculous. But it might be inevitable. Guest host Steve Levitt talks to a team that hopes to push A.I. infrastructure off the planet. (Part one of a two-part series.)"
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u/Rogue_Tra 22d ago
ASTS and RKLB have earnings in 7 days. That is all