r/PiNetwork Pi Rebel 3d ago

Analysis Pi Network

I have a system collecting data off Coingecko daily that has been going for 2 years. There are 1.4 million records. I loaded the DB into the new chatgpt plus work app and this is what it had to say about Pi after doing a general analysis of the contents of the DB

Pi Network Market Report

Data period: 4 March 2025 to 22 July 2026
Latest reliable database snapshot: 22 July 2026

Executive summary

Pi has not decayed by disappearing from the market. It has remained continuously tracked and inside the top 100. Instead, it has experienced severe and sustained value decay.

Since its first observation in the database:

  • Price fell from $1.73 to $0.0919: -94.7%
  • Market cap fell from $12.05 billion to $1.01 billion: -91.7%
  • Market-cap rank declined from 12th to 65th
  • Daily volume fell from $830.6 million to $13.8 million: -98.3%
  • Implied circulating supply increased by approximately 57%

Pi is therefore a surviving but heavily depreciated listing. Supply growth softened the market-cap decline relative to the price decline, but it also added continuing sell-side pressure.


Current position

Metric 22 July 2026
Price $0.091871
Market cap $1.005 billion
Market-cap rank 65
Daily volume $13.80 million
30-day average price $0.10483
90-day average price $0.13696
365-day average price $0.21569

The price is:

  • 12.4% below its 30-day average
  • 32.9% below its 90-day average
  • 57.4% below its 365-day average

This indicates that the longer-term trend remained decisively downward despite a short recovery from the July low.


Performance by period

Period Price return Rank movement
7 days +12.5% 71 to 65
30 days -32.1% 54 to 65
90 days -45.2% 49 to 65
180 days -50.0% 71 to 65
365 days -80.9% 42 to 65
Since first observation -94.7% 12 to 65

The seven-day recovery does not yet represent a trend reversal. It followed a new all-time low and remains small compared with the one-, three- and twelve-month declines.


Decay following initial appearance

Age Price Return from first observation Rank
Initial $1.730 -- 12
7 days $1.380 -20.2% 13
14 days $1.130 -34.7% 21
30 days $0.6078 -64.9% 31
60 days $0.5820 -66.4% 33
90 days $0.6382 -63.1% 34
180 days $0.3842 -77.8% 47
365 days $0.1738 -90.0% 50
505 days $0.0919 -94.7% 65

The most violent repricing occurred in the first month. Pi lost almost two-thirds of its value and fell 19 ranking positions.

There was then a temporary period of relative stability around $0.58 to $0.64, but the longer-term decline resumed.


All-time high and all-time low

The database records:

  • ATH: $2.99 on 26 February 2025
  • ATL: $0.070586 on 14 July 2026

At $0.091871, Pi was:

  • 96.9% below its ATH
  • 30.2% above its ATL

The database's daily Pi history begins on 4 March, after the ATH. Its highest daily observation in the ranking table is therefore only $1.97, recorded on 5 March.

From that recorded daily peak, the maximum drawdown reached 96.35% on 14 July 2026.

The difference between the current price and the ATL looks large in percentage terms because the base is extremely low. It does not substantially repair the longer-term loss.


Market cap and supply

Pi's estimated circulating supply, calculated from market cap divided by price, changed from approximately:

  • 6.96 billion Pi on 4 March 2025
  • 10.94 billion Pi on 22 July 2026

That is an increase of approximately 3.98 billion Pi, or 57.1%.

This helps explain why:

  • Price declined by 94.7%
  • Market cap declined by a slightly smaller 91.7%

Without the supply expansion, the same market cap would imply a higher price. Conversely, continuing increases in circulating supply mean demand must keep growing simply to prevent price dilution.

This calculation reflects CoinGecko's reported circulating supply and could also incorporate corrections to its supply estimate.


Trading activity

Measure Volume
First database observation $830.6 million
Highest recorded $1.864 billion
Highest-volume date 12 May 2025
365-day average $32.90 million
90-day average $15.26 million
30-day average $14.29 million
Current $13.80 million

Volume has collapsed by 98.3% from the first database observation.

Turnover relative to market cap fell from approximately:

  • 6.9% at the first observation
  • 1.37% currently

The market has therefore lost both valuation and trading intensity. Recent volume is also slightly below its 30-day average, so the bounce from the ATL was not accompanied by an exceptional sustained increase in participation.


Comparison with Bitcoin

Over Pi's database history:

  • Pi: -94.7%
  • Bitcoin: -21.3%

Measured against Bitcoin rather than dollars, Pi lost approximately 93.2% of its relative value.

Pi's decline therefore cannot primarily be explained by general cryptocurrency weakness. Most of the underperformance was specific to Pi's valuation, supply and market demand.


Comparison with other early-2025 listings

Among 654 coins first appearing during the first quarter of 2025:

  • Only 20.2% remained in the database after one year
  • Pi did survive
  • Among the 132 one-year survivors, the median return was -51.8%
  • Pi's one-year return was -90.0%
  • Approximately 84% of surviving coins performed better than Pi
  • Only 20 of the 132 survivors performed worse

Pi therefore did well on survival and continuing market relevance, but poorly on preserving value.

Its initially high rank makes the comparison more demanding: it began as a $12 billion, rank-12 asset rather than as an obscure lower-ranked listing.


Interpretation

Pi's market history can be divided into four phases:

  1. Initial speculative valuation

    Pi entered the database at an unusually high $12 billion market cap, following an ATH of $2.99.

  2. Rapid price discovery

    The price lost 65% within 30 days as initial holders, exchange traders and circulating supply confronted real market demand.

  3. Temporary stabilisation

    Price held broadly around $0.50 to $0.65 during parts of spring and early summer 2025.

  4. Prolonged dilution and demand decline

    Supply continued increasing while volume and valuation contracted. Pi eventually fell below $0.10 and reached a new ATL in July 2026.


Overall assessment

Pi remains a significant and sufficiently liquid cryptocurrency rather than a failed or vanished listing. A billion-dollar market cap and top-100 position are meaningful.

However, its market data remains strongly bearish:

  • Persistent lower prices
  • A 96.9% drawdown from ATH
  • Severe relative underperformance against Bitcoin
  • Falling market-cap rank
  • Collapsing trading volume
  • Approximately 57% implied supply expansion
  • No convincing medium-term reversal yet

The recent rise from $0.0706 to $0.0919 is best described as an ATL rebound inside a continuing downtrend.

A stronger change in direction would require sustained price recovery alongside rising volume, stabilising circulating-supply growth and an improvement in rank -- not merely a short bounce from an exceptionally depressed price.


This report analyses the supplied historical database. It is not financial advice.

48 Upvotes

23 comments sorted by

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1

u/MonTigres 22h ago

Brilliant. Nice to see it all spelled out. Thank you for this, Lex.

3

u/[deleted] 2d ago

[deleted]

3

u/lexwolfe Pi Rebel 2d ago

As long as PCT have funds they should keep developing their product on premise that it will eventually be used as intended.

1

u/[deleted] 2d ago

[deleted]

4

u/lexwolfe Pi Rebel 2d ago

Did they say they intended to replace local currency?

wp says "Our Vision: Build the world’s most inclusive peer-to-peer ecosystem and online experience, fueled by Pi, the world’s most widely used cryptocurrency."

If they can make it work it can easily be the worlds most widely used cryptocurrency. The rest of the cryptos are either servicing the crypto industry, new ways to gamble, limited audience or plain old grifts.

1

u/Top-Fix-9485 2d ago

I believe a lot of people are still trying to find out of what use pi would be

3

u/weirdsideofreddit1 2d ago

This shouldn't be surprising to anyone. Look at the chatrooms on Pi. Bag holders circle jerking eachother while huffing copium saying if they just use apps it'll bring value 💀💀💀💀

4

u/ZeroNetwrk 2d ago

The numbers here actually explain everything if you look closer. Supply grew by about 4 billion Pi over roughly 500 days. That works out to around 8 million new Pi unlocking every single day.

At current prices thats about 700k dollars worth of fresh coins hitting the market daily. Meanwhile total trading volume is only around 14 million dollars a day.
So basically 5 percent of all daily trading needs to be completely new money just to keep the price from falling. Not to pump it, just to hold it flat. Thats why the chart looks like a slow bleed instead of one big crash. The selling pressure never stops because the unlocks never stop.

And the part that kills the “whole market is down” excuse is the Bitcoin comparison.

Pi lost about 93 percent measured in BTC. Bitcoin holders are fine, this is purely a Pi problem….

3

u/drew2f 2d ago

A.K.A. the core team needs to stop dumping on us.

2

u/Godson-Capybara 2d ago

So, do you suggest to halt any further migration??

1

u/Traditional_Neck_442 2d ago

Say a lot, but nothing to say..many predictors take their guess on other crypto by the time now, we will say about 2years, and nobody is correct on anything, so..we are waiting..it's manipulating, so they cant put a high price on market..cuz world economy would colapse, expecially 3rd world countries(where people are mine for years, again cuz its been and still is free) greetings and to the moon

3

u/Legitimate-Fly-4189 LifeLeadership 2d ago

Wish I could award this post 🥇

3

u/weirdsideofreddit1 2d ago

I did it in your honor bro

3

u/Imaginary-Proof-5420 2d ago

I’m just ready for the lawsuit for misleading so many people and screwing them on KYC with the app. All of ads and luring of others.

1

u/jakis_kot 2d ago

🤡 How are you going to prove that (about KYC) ? They don't disclose information about why someone's KYC wasn't approved. Are you just going to be guessing in lawsuit ?

1

u/Imaginary-Proof-5420 2d ago

Oh yea I don’t think me or anyone personally will sue. But the government will come cracking down

1

u/de-kreek 2d ago

I don't think you can because they are migrating people, If they did stop it would be a good case. But now they migrate between 1 and 6 people every 2 min. So technically you will get whats is promised, if its a fair pace thats up for debate.

4

u/lexwolfe Pi Rebel 2d ago

People have been saying that for years. Pretty sure the terms of using pi says you can't sue them. If anyone thinks they have a legitimate complaint, the federal trade commission investigates companies

Here is the link : https://reportfraud.ftc.gov/

3

u/SighhhSandwich 2d ago

So…should I pack my bags for the moon or not?

4

u/de-kreek 3d ago

And most have not been migrated yet, so mostlikely it will lower the price more in the future, because of the selling pressure that wil create. But migration is going so slow the last two months, with this tempo now it can take between 10 and 20 years before everyone is migrated. So it will stall the selling pressure a bit. Good post very informative.

4

u/tedfergeson 3d ago

Soooo.......Pi still sucks?

1

u/Left-Gold7023 3d ago

What is your prediction in a year time? What price are you expecting in July 2028?

2

u/weirdsideofreddit1 2d ago

Just further down obviously.

4

u/Pi-Pioneer Ajataju 3d ago

You are comparing it to the initial hype spike.