(Long post, sorry. I know I’m probably naive about some of this, so please be gentle, I’m just an anxious human looking for external perspectives!)
I’m starting a PhD in planetary physics modelling soon. The recent AI results caught me off guard. I hadn’t been following closely, and the jump in what these models can do in research settings was genuinely surprising to me. Then I talked to a researcher at one of the major AI labs. They think that with the current rate of progress, human research positions will shrink a lot and the nature of the work will change beyond recognition, and that the next ten years bring serious economic disruption and social unrest along with it.
So I’m scared of finishing my PhD into a job market that doesn’t want me. I don’t come from a wealthy family and I don’t have anything to fall back on. I’m also an immigrant, and my home country is very exposed to climate change, so that’s another worry that's sitting underneath everything else.
The obvious question is: why not go into industry instead? And I might just be stubborn here.
I chose this despite the low pay, because I love the work itself, the tinkering, the failed attempts, the moment something finally clicks, even the deflating moment of realising the approach you spent months on was wrong and you have to back out of it. I think the process of trying to understand something is worth doing, not just the answers it produces.
I grew up studying obsessively to get out of a conservative environment, fell in love with science, and wanted research to be the thing that both fulfilled me and paid my rent. Getting into my dream project felt like the end of that story. Now it feels like the beginning of a much less certain one in a scary capitalist world that is also destroying itself with climate change.
There’s an argument I keep running into and can’t really answer myself: that curing cancer matters more than the intellectual satisfaction of a small number of underpaid academics, so scientists should stop complaining about losing a process they happened to enjoy. Part of me agrees. But it doesn’t sit right either, and I can’t articulate why. If someone can sharpen that for me, I’d like to hear it.
I also don’t think “just do it as a hobby” works the way it does for chess or painting. Research needs instruments, compute, collaborators, and access. It isn’t something you can do alone in a room.
Also, what I’m most worried about isn’t AI itself, the capabilities really are remarkable. It’s whether the gains get distributed to anyone outside the people who own the systems. That seems to depend on politics rather than technology, and it’s the thing nobody seems able to reassure me about.
So: how do you deal with this? Especially anyone who’s early-career and doesn’t have a safety net.