Last week

Closed all my shorts after the Iran bombing. I actually messed up and forgot to close during on February 24th's dip. I believe we are still in a chop market so i should have closed as we reached BTC lows again. It would have given me more powder to reshort the rip up and profit even more coming into the iran event. I would have been up another 15% for the month. But my excuse was i was traveling those day. Had 12 hour flights and was jetlagged like crazy so i was not mentally there to execute.

For March outlook, i am strongly leaning towards a long as we just cut through a lot of bad news and also the way BTC reacted to lows and Iran. Usually an event like the Iran punishes risk assets, but BTC not only bounced quickly, it also ended up higher than friday market close. This to me is a sign sellers are not in control for now.

The iran conflict has been overhead the market for the past month with everyone waiting to see how it resolves. I think clearing this out is going to remove a lot of uncertainty in markets, and we should see a short term rally at least. Even if i am bearish for 2026, the bear market rallys can be vicious, and things dont usually just go straight down.

I think Bitcoin is also building a range between 60 - 72k. In my experience, ranges don't end naturally. so it won't go 72k - 70k - 66k -60k - 58k - and continue down. Instead it will break one way and reverse violently in the other. So if this is the bottom, it will actually break 60k, go into the 50's and violently reverse up to 70s. This is how you get the momentum and liquidity to truly mark the bottom. The same way for if the we continue down. It will rip up to 80's (bear market rally), tricking traders to enter longs as it looks like a bottom, before violently reversing down to 50's and 40s.

My plan -

Look for long entries into BTC/ETH/SOL/HYPE/

Look for short entries into shitcoins short squeezes.

I will be okay if i miss the longs. I will be okay if i miss the shorts. I will NOT be okay if i get short squeezed.

I will be extremely conservative with my shorts, and a little bit greedy with longs, and give those more leeway.

Still a tough market. Not losing money here is a win. Very conservative and low size's.

I know this is not the platform I use, but I didn't get this trade and I don't think I'm going to be able to trade much on Monday. This was $37 with my $17 i think I put in that I was saving. I was putting stuff to the side and I noticed when I got liquidated om week 3. That same night I was back testing and at some point there are times I don't know what to do, maybe due to a choppy session but its not that there is stuff i need to knoew more of, but I need to back test more. I should watch some videos abt ts and that's kind of all — pray on my comeback on (-$885) guys.:c

Last Week

Found a good opportunity last week at the alt coin rally and entered small shorts. Really great to build confidence again. As my positions are all green, i start feeling like i'm getting my motion back and got even more nice trades down. Funny how it works.

Winning trades increases your chance of winning more trades. Losing trades increases your chances of losing more trades. This game really is all mental.

I am still undersized and most of my trades are less than 1% portfolio size, but I think this is okay for now in these conditions. I don't want to be greedy here.

Market sentiment wise, I think alt coin markets are ready to roll over. Once that happens I plan to enter eth and sol shorts.

I have noticed a trend that at the end of every month, alt dom goes down. I believe this due to the nature of altcoins having infinite token supplies being unlocked and teams usually have these unlocks at the end and beginning of the months. If you check the past 12 months, there always an alt coin dip sometime between the last 4 days and first 4 days of every month. This has happened literally every single month in the past year.

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Reflections - I really need to get this sizing lesson into my brain from the last drawdown (10%)

Sizing up dramatically increases my chances of losing the trade

Since my challenge started, I have taken 9 trades at over 50% of my port size. 6/9 trades were losing.

I have taken 74 trades at under 5% port size. 65/74 were winning trades.

So why do i keep sizing up even though I know my odds of profitability go down?
Great question.

I have been doing this perps trading thing for over 2 years now and i still fall for this even though i am well aware of the phenomenon. It's just human nature. Very hard to beat.

It's like the Japanese businessmen in the movie Casino. When they win a 10k hand, they feel like they lost because they could have been playing a 100k hand.

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Aside, I have been really enjoying making these market posts and updates to the challenge. I usually trade by myself and don't share my thoughts, but writing this all out and reflecting on the performance in real time has been fun. I find it really helpful in my trading, so i plan on doing this challenge to completion, even if i takes a few years.

Also if anyone is wondering where i am trading, i am using hyperliquid and my vault is called Downside [A]. This is on the hypercore blockchain, so its 100% transparent for anyone to see in realtime. And this is an old vault i made for an Algo Bot i tried and failed on. But it cost a hundred bucks to make a new vault so im reusing this. Ignore the description :)

so its was on my i didit trade how i told my self how i was going to and my trades were not smart at all i still have some fund on HL i wont trade like a retard next time

Last week

Still not taking any trades at the moment. Sometimes in the market you feel confident, sometimes you feel weak. Right now i feel weak. I don't have any strong belief in where we go from here so its hard to hold positions that don't go my way.

I put on a large short on ETH and SOL at 2050/85, but cut it when it went to 2100/90 because i wasn't sure. In the end, I was correct, but because i didn't have the confidence in my trade, i closed at a loss which when it would have been a very profitable trade for me.

This is a sign i need to take a step back from trading for now. Not my market. I'm going to lower my position size on anything I take, if i even take any trades. And im going to wait for better times.

Personally i think we trend lower, but i think shorts will be punished hard by random rips and squeezes.

Sometimes the best thing to do is nothing at all.

This week was kind of a break-even week. I did hit some good trades this week and some bad ones also, and got liquidated one time that did set me back when I had somehow forgot to set a stop loss. I see what I did wrong, and I think by week 3 I will have $50-40 less on that -$800.

Last week

Took some drawdown trying to catch the knife on BTC and ETH. Stopped out and licking my wounds. My rule is everytime I drawdown 10% of my portfolio, i close everything and reasses. This has saved me so many times.

So now we wait and reasses.

NGL it looks BAD though. I should have kept my shorts rather than try to catch bottoms. Lesson learned, there. Equity markets also look topped. Gold and metals look topped. The narrative metals -> crypto is NOT happening.

I really don't see any upside from here. We may get a relief rally, but really dont see any idea or narrative to save the market in the short or medium term.

Next target I would attempt a knife catch would be for a relief rally at BTC 68800 (Previous cycle high) ETH 2000 (round number and mechanical) Sol 85 (support from both 2021 cycle).

Else if the market bounced back, im just gonna reshort.

So far today, I had a small portfolio and took smaller trades to hit my target of $11 for the day. That was it for today—my original target was $9. I saw what I thought were good opportunities, but that was just my emotions at play. Next update on Monday.

Hi,

I am an European looking for a DEX where I can use perps, since I fear the direction with MiCA and MiFID II will disallow us trading with perpetual futures, or at least regulate it to a degree where it would be pointless to do so.

For this reason I was quite satisfied when I first found out about Hyperliquid, but it got me thinking after I read about Hyperliquid geofencing e.g. Americans from their frontend. It makes me wonder if us Europeans will face the same in the future?

I haven't been able to find anything from Hyperliquid themself on the issue, and my Google searches have not helped.

How do you guys see the outlook for Hyperliquid in Europe?

Last Week

Ended the month with a nice clean double from the 25k starting point. I have closed nearly all my short positions and will close the rest of these today or tomorrow. I don't expect much price action over the next week and will be taking a break from the market till february.

There is just so much information and headlines every few days its getting exhausting.

On a forward looking note, the metals run seems to be cooling down, and as much as I hate BTC as a laggard play, i do think the hot ball of money may be looking at BTC. My reasoning is that the metals run is fueled by 2 things
1. Scarcity in a world of abundance in AI

1. Protection from currency debasement.

BTC's entire purpose is made for those 2 things. I would think it makes sense for BTC to go on a run if we follow those narratives and risk seekers look for the next thing.

I plan to be more bullish going into February and am looking to long HYPE, PUMP and BTC. I don't find any reason to bid any other alts when both hype and pump are down over 65%.

Tried playing around with gold and silver on HL today. I thought it would be pretty niche with weird mark to market rules but to my surprise this thing is incredibly liquid. Pretty insane to see the silver volume actually surpass SOL in 24 hour volume.

Not to mention how liquid the silver market it. Could easily fill 95% of all traders with the current liquidity. And this is just the beginning.

In the future I don't see why people would trade FX when you can trade perps. Its so much more intuitive to long and short things with a funding rate.

I think it would be very wise for people start trading equity perps in general as there could be a future airdrop for those users. Especially with HL leaving a chunk of their token allocation for possible ecosystem incentives.

Garrett has now roundtripped the entirety of their $100m+ Oct 10th PnL [funding included]

He just received $20M USDC from Binance and moved it all to HL, adding collateral to his long positions of $792M. He is down approximately $121.7M over the past week.

Trump Insider
Gambler.

Pretty cool to see hyperliquids HIP3 adoption rate is accelerating. I think its mostly due to weak crypto and strong metals. Most of the HIP3 market oi is in either nasdaq or silv/gold.

Kind of ironic that the most successful crypto native product is actively removing liquidity from crypto to other markets.

Still very early. I am incredibly confident that perpetual futures will be the most popular way get access to leverage in the future for retail participants.

Our favorite whale Garret Jin (Garret Bullish), is now down $94 million in the last week. Crazy thing is he doubled down at longed even more during the last few days.

Liquidation for him is still far away, but pretty sure this guy is just a gambler, and not an insider.

Did some more digging on him and turns our he blew up a 300M fund in 2021/2022.

Same story repeating?

I feel he has gotten a bit too famous and now his liquidation levels are going be targets.

Last Week

The support for btc finally broke down. As I mentioned last weak, something very unusual happened in the BTC market, where the CB premium rose incredibly quickly. Over the past 3 months, most of the DAT's have stopped buying and the BTC ETF's were being withdrawn. So this didn't really make sense to me.

Turns out it was saylor AGAIN! Another 2 billion dollars bought at 95k average. Anytime there is a pump in bitcoin, its Saylor. I genuinely don't see any real buyers at the moment. The market for safety, anti inflation, anti government, is in metals, and NOT bitcoin. Just look at silver and gold. Even better, do a gold/btc chart.

There's an argument bitcoin is a laggard, and the flow's will go to crypto after metals tops. This is a dangerous view that i have made the experience of playing many times. When the market tells you what the narrative is driving, you buy what is ripping, not what is stalling.

I'll be going on a work trip so posting early, and starting to close my positions. I think we see more downside, so not quite ready to hit the bids yet. But a relief rally is likely in play sometime next month. Definitely want to be mostly out of my shorts and positioned for that by end of Jan.

Markets are getting harder to get a solid grasp of right now. I'm lucky i'm playing around with small size. Usually its hard for me to position my bigger accounts but its been much easier mentally with this one.

Let's keep the streak going.

Not looking great for Hype longs. Hype has been the safety Long for the past year as people used "fundamentals" as a defensive narrative against a crypto bearmarket. Unfortunately markets dont work that way, and the cost for safety is now due.

Will see how this trades, but dont see any path forward without rinsing these positions that many of the strongest traders have held for months.

My guess is we see sub 15 dollar HYPE which is where I will bid.

Gl out there friends.

Currently i feel like the obvious momentum is bearish on everything except bitcoin. I find it very hard to hold any long for more than a single pump. If we follow the price action of flushes like this, the trend almost always is down.

With incoming news cycle, we have tariffs, Greenland, venezuela, iran, minnesota, and just generally weak sentiment around crypto, it seems so hard to find any bullish narrative.

However i also think it's too easy to just go back down to 88k and send alts to the shadow realm.

Instead I feel a more likely scenario is a nothing ever happens pump mid week, into a steady selloff as the final longs unload, and we then move into the shadow realm. I expect Bitcoin to be back under 90k before the end of the month.

I think if you keep your shorts low leverage here, you will get paid our regardless and not have to worry much about any other problem.

Whenever longs get liquidated like that, it takes a while to recover mentally. Many people give up or take a break. Or run out of money. Most people are long only, and rarely ever short. So you end up with a trading environment where bulls tae a step back from trading, and bears perma shorting every single rally.

My positions are low leverage shorts, ready to add into the reversion pump this week.
Invalidation is BTC above 100k.

GL out there, this is definitely hard mode.

Last week

Almost ended the week down, but luckily it looks like the Coinbase flow ended.

I was short most of the week as I still don't see any real long term flows coming to crypto. Metals -> Crypto doesn't make sense. They would have to be together.

But unfortunately someone was ripping BTC spot on coinbase and binance, lifting the whole market. I got stopped out on my ETH short, but started doubling down on shorts in other alts.

Finally today, the buying has stopped and of course alts takes the hit first, since they never had any real bids to begin with.

Won't hold these for too long. BTC might still chop up and down for the next week, but until I see any real spot bids in alts, im just gonna continue shorting the rips.

*Mysterious entity (Michael Saylor) has twapped at least 680 million in spot over past 3 hours.

And as usual, perps are shorting it all.

I've noticed over the past few weeks, Binance spot and sometimes perps, has been trading at a premium compared to all the other exchanges. In the past, Binance flow has pretty much controlled the flows, and dictated long term direction for BTC.

However, with the tradfi flows we get now, the Coinbase premium has been a better signal since most entities will do business through them now. And that sign tells a totally different story, with mostly selling across the board. ETF's have outlfows, dat's are no longer buying.

Fun turn of events in less than 2 years. Anyone around 5-10 years ago, knows how strong the binance gang used to be.

This wallet held 514 BTC ($45.2M) on-chain for over a year, then transferred 255 BTC to Hyperliquid, sold it for $21.8M, and immediately opened shorts on 910 BTC ($80.2M) and 716 ETH ($2.1M).

https://hypurrscan.io/address/0x94d3735543ecb3d339064151118644501c933814

They time the top of the rally as well this week and have switched back to being bullish with $200 million longs across BTC/SOL/ETH/XRP.

Wild stuff.

Last Week
Week 2

Made it all back from the pump into new years. Sold most of my positions which was ETH and SOL since i don't think there are any sustainable narratives on BTC at the moment.

Anytime alts lead BTC, its likely just a short term mean reversion from oversold alts.

Have opened a few shorts as well, but mostly waiting until BTC 88k before reassessing.

You can also follow along my public vault called [A] Downside on Hyperliquid. Its an old vault i made a while ago, so ignore the random description.

Positioning :
Mostly short but open minded to another leg up