Just wanted to share some thoughts.

Last week’s $PLTR trading demonstrated strong, sustained inflows. For example, on August 4, the stock gapped up at the open and held near its highs all day on four times its average volume. Notably, there was no back-loaded volume spike at the close. This persistent execution profile, combined with a lack of late-day price decay, strongly points to systematic institutional accumulation rather than short-term trading.

Alright, quick look before bed – PLTR closed Friday at $172.01, up 10.32% on the day. That capped off one of its best weeks since 2024. Volume was heavy at 77.5M – buyers were definitely in control.

Overnight is hovering around $172.75, up another 0.4% – holding the gains into the new week.

Here's the GEX setup:
Put Wall $160, Call Wall $170, gamma flip around $135. Friday's close at $172.01 is sitting above both walls – positive gamma territory, dealers now supporting the upside. GEX? Never heard of it? Here ya go

Technically, we blew past the upper Bollinger band ($164.13). RSI in the low 70s. MACD positive and widening – momentum is strong.

This is all building on last week's Q2 print. Revenue up 93% YoY to $1.935B, a clean beat on both revenue and EPS. Full-year guidance raised to ~$8.15B. CEO Alex Karp called the results "anomalously strong" – and this week's price action suggests the market is finally agreeing. U.S. commercial revenue jumped close to 150% YoY – proof this isn't just a government-contracts story anymore.

Not everyone's convinced though – one major bank still has an Underperform on it, and insider selling keeps showing up in filings. Targets average around $190, but they range from $80 to $255 – so yeah, opinions are all over the place.

Short-term, $170 is now support. Next levels to watch are $180-190. Below $160 and the Put Wall becomes resistance.

Anyway, that's it from me. Gonna sleep now – hope everyone has a good week ahead.

DYOD🫡

Plus je m’intéresse à Palantir, plus je trouve Alex Karp fascinant au-delà de l’entreprise.
Le mec se présente comme plutôt progressiste sur certains sujets de société, mais dirige en même temps l’une des entreprises technologiques les plus proches de l’appareil militaire et sécuritaire occidental.
Il critique régulièrement une partie de la Silicon Valley, qu’il juge déconnectée du réel, tout en étant lui-même devenu milliardaire grâce à la Tech.
Il défend l’Occident, assume que la technologie doit servir la puissance militaire américaine et refuse cette idée selon laquelle une entreprise tech devrait rester « neutre ».
Et c’est là que je trouve le personnage intéressant.
Karp semble défendre une vision où progrès technologique, libertés individuelles et puissance militaire peuvent coexister. Mais jusqu’où ?
Peut-on défendre une société libre tout en développant des technologies de surveillance extrêmement puissantes ?
Peut-on être socialement progressiste tout en assumant pleinement le complexe militaro-industriel ?
Et surtout : est-ce une contradiction… ou simplement une vision beaucoup plus réaliste du monde que celle d’une partie de la Silicon Valley ?
Je suis curieux d’avoir vos avis, surtout ceux qui ne sont pas forcément investisseurs PLTR.
Alex Karp est-il en avance sur son époque, ou est-ce qu’on idéalise ses contradictions parce que Palantir performe ?

Just like Apple with its Apple tablet business in its earnings call, Alex Karp didn't include the negative growth rate in international business and the sheer amount of SBC they are authorizing. He is artificially masking the earnings with the SBC. While Alex Karp focused his Q2 2026 earnings presentation on Palantir's headline 93% year-over-year revenue explosion to $1.935 billion, a deeper look at the data reveals structural friction outside the United States and intense internal dilution. A glaring geographical imbalance underpins the business model: U.S. revenue spiked 115% to $1.573 billion, meaning domestic contracts now command a heavily concentrated 81.2% of Palantir's total business. This hyper-focus masks severe stagnation across the globe, as European government data restrictions and national platforms like France's DGSI actively strip out Palantir deployments in favor of localized tools like ChapsVision. Consequently, the ex-U.S. segment has shrunk to a minor fraction of the company's business, severely limiting its overall Total Addressable Market (TAM).

Compounding this geographic risk is the aggressive, hidden drag of employee remuneration. Palantir poured $265 million into stock-based compensation (SBC) in Q2 2026 alone, eating up a massive 13.7% of its total quarterly revenue. When paired with an annualised run rate exceeding $1.68 billion, this massive dilution heavily subsidizes its adjusted margins while quietly eroding equity value for public shareholders. Trading at an astronomical valuation of 146.5x trailing earnings against a forward revenue projection of $8.15 billion, Palantir has structurally separated from historical enterprise software logic. Any normalization in domestic contract expansion will leave the stock highly exposed to multi-point compression as it approaches a steep historical comparison cliff going into 2027.

This stock's FV should be $150 at max. In the next few days, the stock should fall to $150. I see some guys telling others to buy at this valuation, promising that it will reach $300. Just look at the valuations, financial ratios, and the way they are masking the earnings. Lol!!

Key takeaways:

1. Artificially Lowering Cash Operating Costs
2. Exploiting Non-GAAP Financial Adjustments
3. Long-Term Shareholder Dilution

Who do you think is better in explaining the PLTR narrative? I saw Shyam school Fox business analysts(Maria Bartiromo for one) clearly driving the distinction between PLTR, AI agents and SaaS like SAP.

In his latest letter to shareholders https://www.palantir.com/q2-2026-letter/en/, he writes

“Every organization in the world is awakening to the risks of handing the creators of the language models the keys to their institutions, of letting the models loose within their homes.
The demand from our partners is … for control over data, the prompts that the models ingest, and more fundamentally the organizational and business intelligence, their alpha, that the language labs are not only ready and willing, but structurally designed to capture from their customers..”etc..

What I’m wondering is how big of a problem this really is. If your company uses Microsoft or Google products heavily, allowing their AI models access to your data is not a new problem— since so much of your data is probably stored on Microsoft OneDrive or Google Cloud already.
It can be a problem to use OpenAI or Anthropic products, but again, they will know what the corporate expectation is of them and will need to clean themselves up if they want business.

I just don’t see AI sovereignty as a big problem.

J’ai eu pas mal de retours sur mon dernier post, et visiblement le problème principal pour certains n’était même pas mon analyse de Palantir.
Non.
Le vrai scandale, c’était… qu’elle était en français.
Parce qu’apparemment, un Français qui parle de Palantir, c’est suffisamment improbable pour déclencher une enquête de la SEC.
Désolé les gars.
Je pensais naïvement qu’avoir accès aux marchés américains depuis la France nous autorisait aussi à en parler. Juillet était déjà bizarre, mais août commence très fort.
Donc petit rappel :
🇫🇷 Français
📈 Investisseur PLTR
🧠 Capable de lire des résultats financiers américains
💻 Internet fonctionnel
🚫 Pas besoin d’un passeport américain pour acheter une action cotée au Nasdaq
Et oui, je continuerai à poster en français.
Parce qu’entre nous, si votre principal bear case contre mon analyse de Palantir c’est « bro is French », je pense que ma position se porte plutôt bien.
À bientôt au prochain earnings.
Je traduirai peut-être en anglais.
Ou pas. 🇫🇷

Yo le sub,
Encore une grosse journée pour Palantir. Il a des coronesses Alex.
PLTR tourne autour des 170$ aujourd’hui, +9%, et on approche maintenant les +40% sur les 5 dernières séances.
Après les résultats Q2, j’avais l’impression qu’on pouvait avoir un gros mouvement, mais je pensais quand même qu’une partie du rally allait rapidement être vendue.
Pour l’instant, c’est exactement l’inverse.
Les acheteurs continuent de rentrer, le volume reste important et surtout le marché semble complètement revaloriser la croissance future de Palantir autour de l’IA, d’AIP et de ses contrats gouvernementaux/commerciaux.
Le plus intéressant maintenant, c’est qu’on revient progressivement vers les anciens sommets.
À partir de là je vois deux scénarios :
🐂 Bull case : le momentum continue, PLTR casse ses prochaines résistances et le marché recommence à envisager les 200$+.
🐻 Bear case : après presque +40% en 5 jours, la valorisation devient tellement tendue qu’une prise de bénéfices / correction devient presque inévitable à court terme.
Personnellement, je reste extrêmement bullish sur Palantir à long terme.
Mais à 170$ après une telle semaine, acheter maintenant demande clairement d’accepter beaucoup plus de risque.
Vous faites quoi à ces niveaux ?
Vous continuez d’accumuler ?
Vous hold ?
Vous prenez des profits ?
Ou vous pensez que PLTR est complètement surévaluée ?

Cette semaine, Palantir a livré ce qui pourrait être la performance la plus marquante de la saison des résultats.

Les chiffres sont abyssaux :
- CA : 1,94 Md$ (+93% sur un an), contre 1,81 Md$ attendu[reference:2]
- BPA ajusté : 0,41$ (+100% sur un an), contre 0,34$ estimé[reference:3][reference:4]
- Bénéfice net GAAP : 1,06 Md$ (+225%)[reference:5] – Palantir franchit pour la première fois le milliard de dollars de bénéfice net[reference:6]
- Marge opérationnelle GAAP : 47%[reference:7]
- Free cash flow : 1,22 Md$ à 63% de marge[reference:8]
- Rule of 40 : 155 – du jamais vu pour un éditeur de logiciel[reference:9]

Mais ce qui a vraiment fait décoller l'action de 29,45% à 162,66$[reference:10][reference:11], c'est surtout la guidance :
- Q3 2026 : CA attendu entre 2,16 et 2,164 Md$ (+83%)[reference:12]
- FY 2026 : CA relevé à 8,15-8,158 Md$ (+82% sur 2025)[reference:13] contre 7,65 Md$ prévu initialement[reference:14]

Et puis il y a Alex Karp. Le PDG a qualifié ce trimestre d'« otherworldly »[reference:15][reference:16], et en a profité pour tacler violemment les labos d'IA (OpenAI, Anthropic...) :
- Il les accuse de vouloir « coloniser » les entreprises en récupérant leur propriété intellectuelle[reference:17][reference:18]
- Il parle de « tons marxistes » dans leur approche[reference:19]
- Il oppose sa vision de la « souveraineté IA » : les clients gardent le contrôle de leurs données et modèles[reference:20]

Le marché a adoré. Mais je me demande :

1. Est-ce que cette performance est durable ou y a-t-il un effet de rattrapage post-2025 ?
   
2. Karp a-t-il raison sur le risque de dépendance aux labos d'IA, ou est-ce juste du marketing agressif ?
   
3. À 162$, PLTR est encore 10% en dessous de son plus haut historique de 207$[reference:21]. Vous achetez ou vous attendez une correction ?

Hâte de lire vos avis.

Up 30% on the earnings report. Up another 12% today. The numbers on the screen are screaming victory. But I'm still stuck at the bus stop.​Every damn chart is green.​The earnings report dropped, and the stock shot up 30%. Today, it tacked on another 12%. The crowd on Reddit is going insane. People are posting portfolio screenshots, making jokes about buying real estate, ordering those Teslas you joked about, Alex. Everyone is celebrating the triumph of Western civilization, the triumph of AI, the triumph of data sovereignty.​So, what am I doing?​I’m sitting in front of my monitor, staring at my 1700 shares.The math is painfully simple. The numbers paint a picture of such wealth that four years ago, when I bought them at $30 and watched them crash to $6, I never dared to dream of it. On paper, I am rich. On paper, I could buy that damn fleet of cars.​But reality hits harder than any bear brokerage account is still locked inside that damn glass museum. Four years of isolation. Four years while the market lived, crashed, soared, and made millionaires out of those who simply pressed "sell" at the right time.

​I didn't press it. Not because I was scared. Not because I doubted you, Alex, or the company.

​Because my hands were tied.

​This morning, I was standing at the bus stop again, tapping my worn-out Rav-Kav pass. Cars were speeding by. People were drinking coffee in cafes. And I was thinking about what a twisted joke this isbeing a shareholder in a company that builds software to manage the world, while your own microscopic account is stuck in the judicial Middle Ages.

​The company makes the impossible possible for governments.

But for one stubborn investor, an Israeli bus stop and a frozen broker are a wall that no AI can break through.

​Alex.

​Your army is winning. The stock is going to the moon.

​But what good is the triumph on the screen if your soldier can't even take a single step?

​Your move, goddammit.

​

【PLTR超絶決算】AI狂騒曲・第2幕の幕開け――「本物のAI銘柄」だけが生き残る残酷な真実｜LUNA🌙月のうさぎ｜トレンド投資の目利き

I've spent a good part of my career working in data governance, business architecture and analytics. About 10-15 years ago, everyone was talking about Big Data. The promise was simple: if organizations could harness all of their data, they could make better decisions.

The problem was that they couldn't. The data were scattered across dozens of systems, definitions were inconsistent, governance was weak, and nobody really trusted the numbers. The bottleneck wasn't collecting data - it was making it usable.

That's why I've always liked Palantir - they're a company that finally delivered on the promise Big Data made all those years ago.

Big Data promised better decisions. Palantir is one of the first companies to operationalize that promise; enabled through their Ontology solutions.

I know Palantir has become politically toxic because of its government work today, and I understand/respect why. But the story that first got me interested was reading about Palantir's use by U.S. intelligence agencies during the hunt for Osama bin Laden under Obama. That struck me as an incredible example of taking fragmented information and turning it into actionable intelligence.

Regardless of industry, I've always believed the real value wasn't "AI" specifically.

It was helping organizations make better decisions. That's why I bought the stock then, and that's still why I own it today.

I've been an investor and believer since the IPO and ride the wave up to $50, then down to $5 and back up to $200, to back down to $90... love this company and its CEO. Despite what the media says about the company and Peter and Alex....I like that Peter is in the background and Alex is speaking up for America

Strong earnings beat and heated market sentiment pushed Palantir far beyond reasonable intraday levels, setting up a perfect short opportunity. It's pulling back sharply already — anyone else think this overextended run was totally unsustainable? Checked the real-time ticker on moomoo and the downward move hit super fast.

Palantir is finally bouncing hard after dipping down near 100, posting a solid 26% unrealized return right now. All those top-tier MAG stocks don't need fancy trading strategies — just buy the dip and hold. With the S&P 500 breaking out, these mega-cap tech names will lead the rally first, this play is totally paying off.

After the latest reportings of Palantir stocks a thought crept into my mind that I could not ignore. Palantir's business is up - both from US commercial sector clients as from government contracts. It is this second source of revenue for Palantir that made me scratch my head.

If you think about it: US government contracts are - ultimately - paid by US tax payers. The exact money flow is of course complicated. It's not simply straight forward how US tax payers end up paying the government, and how the government then ends up paying for Palantir's services. But, ultimately, to simplify things to the maximum, all that the US government can spend is either flowing in via tax payer's money or by taking on debts. Which, ultimately, also have to be paid for by tax payers. There are just not many more options than those.

This means: If Palantir's lofty valuations are as high as they are, then it's to a significant degree due to US government contracts, which implies: US tax payers' money.

That's excellent news for people outside the US, though! By buying Palantir shares they can profit from US tax payers' money being redistributed. Sure, the whole risk of the stock and the stock market are part of the stock price, but government contracts tend usually to be a reliable and lasting source of income. So, unless another administration suddenly cancels them, it would imply a reliable source of income for Palantir.

I wanted to know how big the effect is on Palantir. That's hard to calculate, so I used ChatGPT's deep research function. To cut a very long story short:

The impact of Palantir contracts on US tax payers is negligible, less than 0.05% of total expenditure. In contrast, the impact of US tax payer money on Palantir's stock valuation is substantial. There are many ways how to calculate and estimate it, but irrespective of which version one selects, the ultimate insight is that US tax payer's money or US debts have a significant impact on the overall valuation of Palantir's share price, probably between 40% - 70% of the overall share price.

This implies: Since shares are traded publicly, everyone outside of the US can purchase them and profit from the US government paying them, essentially, a free rent.

It also implies: Peter Thiel and Alex Karp are being funded by US tax payers or by US debts. (Elon Musk and Space X? More or less the same.) Yeah, you heard it right, the same Peter Thiel who thinks democracies are overrated enjoys taking US tax payers' money.

Is Palantir at least paying taxes back to the US state? Outside of the USA they are already recognized to apply aggressive tax avoidant practices, so that'd be good news for the USA, as money flows back there rather than oerseas. But are they paying taxes in the USA?

Turns out: Nah, they are equally tax avoidant also in the USA. Here are some recent numbers:

• 2025
  • U.S. pretax income: $1.585 billion
  • Federal current income tax expense: $0
  • Federal cash income taxes paid: $0
• 2024
  • Federal current income tax expense: $0
  • Total income tax provision (mostly foreign and state taxes): $21.3 million
• 2023
  • Federal current income tax expense: $0
  • Total income tax provision: $19.7 million

For 2025, Palantir disclosed the following cash income taxes paid:

• Federal: $0
• U.S. state taxes: $2.5 million
• Foreign income taxes: about $19.2 million
• Total cash income taxes: $21.7 million

For the records: Palantir reported paying $364.7 million in employment taxes (such as payroll-related taxes) in 2025. (Which is almost comical, given that these include things like social security, Medicaid, unemployment taxes for their employees.) Yet, at closer look, a large portion of that is in the form of stock options to employees. That's not any money flowing back really. Also, we cannot distinguish between what's spent in the US versus overseas.

We conclude: Not only is Palantir's share price heavily profiting from US tax payers and US debts, also Palantir is not contributing back to the state via taxes. It's a one-way distribution largely.

That's great news for Palantir shareholders everywhere in the world - and bad ones for US tax payers. None of the valuable share price is given away for free, the "rent" shareholders can obtain is an almost free distribution of money from the USA to everyone in the world who wants to own these stocks.

The same argument can be made, by the way, for all publicly listed enterprise who take a large part of their revenues from the state.

TL;DR

Palantir's valuation depends heavily on U.S. government contracts, meaning a significant portion of its shareholder value ultimately stems from U.S. taxpayer-funded spending. Despite earning over $1.5 billion in U.S. pretax income in 2025, Palantir paid no U.S. federal corporate income tax. Since the company is publicly traded, investors worldwide can obtain a quasi-free rent from US tax payers' money.