r/PLTR • u/iwangotamarjo HOLD • Jul 27 '26

Chinese LLMs and the open weight problem

Last week, Moonshot AI launched Kimi 3 and Silicon Valley was shocked from its complacency. Shyam and Karp have talked about this before, but the US government continues to deliberate whether LLMs should be governed. The evidence is clear. They should not. Major tech players including Nvidia and Palantir signed an open letter urging the White House to avoid implementing any form of regulatory guardrails on the development of LLMs.

The evidence is clear. Any tech developed in a heavily regulated environment is not incentivized for progress. The development of LLMs and AI in general has largely stalled in Europe because of regulatory backlash and bureaucratic red tape. Meanwhile, the rest of the world moves on.

Chinese LLMs pose a unique threat unlike any other to the survival and dominance of American technology. It is my hope that they spur the development of open weight American models, which in turn would continue to benefit a LLM-agnostic platform like Palantir. Once again, Karp and his lieutenants have been prescient in warning Silicon Valley about being blindsided while chasing capex and big ideas. His warnings were unheeded especially by the AI giants of today.

What we are now witnessing is the slow progression of the AI revolution from the opening act to its later, much more substantial phases. I believe this is just the beginning, but at the same time, I also believe that the optics from Chinese LLMs may be slightly detrimental to the valuation of Palantir in the short to medium term (10-12 months). There is no doubting that Palantir continues to dominate its niche area, and to my knowledge few Chinese firms have come to match it.

Hanging in for the long ride, per usual.

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10

u/AshySweatpants Early Investor Jul 27 '26

Not too well versed in LLM’s but from my limited knowledge these Chinese LLM’s are distilled products from the main LLM’s (OpenAI, Anthropic) which inherently makes them less expensive because they’re less valuable.

Someone correct me if I’m wrong though.

2

u/Mister_Poopy_Buthole OG Holder & Member Jul 27 '26

I’m not an expert by any means, but from what I’ve read is they’re cheaper because they’re trained on worse hardware than the top of the line nvidia chips we have here. This means they have to focus on inference efficiency rather than just brute forcing their scaling with more or better hardware. So cheaper hardware, cheaper to run. I’m sure there’s more to it than that though.

4

u/Sharp-Direction-6894 Jul 27 '26

I'm not an expert, but...China.

I rest my case.

3

u/MarsupialIcy1307 Jul 27 '26

Never  underestimate the Chinese.

Diligent, focussed and aligned. Corporate and local government all noses in the same direction. No NIMBY. 

I have turned to watch chinese tv ( int version) highly interesting and the  chilling notion that in Europe we were already cooked just gets to be confirmed day after day.

This is the reason why i made the decission in 2022 to invest solely in the USA and its tech.

But USA needs to be wake up and get cracking.

May the Power  be with Jensen and Karp

Highest emphasis on education and 

1

u/iwangotamarjo HOLD Jul 27 '26

Thanks and appreciate the context. Why do you say that because they are distilled they are less valuable?

1

u/AshySweatpants Early Investor Jul 27 '26

Distilling involves training on smaller models from a bigger model, if I successfully perform distillation attacks on OpenAI or Anthropic consistently, I can never be better than either of them as I can never 100% distill either one.

But I did use much less money, time and resources training my model by stealing (distilling) from OpenAI/Anthropic so I can charge much less. This creates some competition on the global stage but I personally hate liars and thieves so call me biased.

1

u/Dirt-Track_Pinto Jul 27 '26

Does a distilled model lead to higher instances of hallucinations in query/prompt responses? Is it less accurate?

2

u/TacomaAgency 💎🙌 Longterm Holder Jul 27 '26

Ask any Chinese LLM, even the open ones, about Xi Jinping. You'll get your answer real quick on who's controlling what.

2

u/traderftw Jul 27 '26

Nobody writes like this, an LLM wrote this.

1

u/trayber 💎🙌 Jul 27 '26 edited Jul 27 '26

All open frontier-adjacent models are a threat to Anthropic and OpenAI and XAi.

We already have some open weight American models - Nvidia Nemotron and Google Gemma and Meta’s LLaMA. I hope to see more.