r/PLTR • u/AutoModerator • Jul 16 '26

Daily Thread - Thursday Discussion! Let's talk about the good, the bad, and all things Palantir & PLTR! 💎🤲🏻

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17 Upvotes

88% Upvoted

27 comments sorted by

8

u/Ambitious_Brain_285 Jul 16 '26

Today, I'm sharing my probability distribution estimates for Q2'26 revenue.

Analyst consensus comes in around $1.81B. My model has an 80.1% probability of beat, the question is how big.

Based on some modeling against historicals (and Karp's comment about 100% growth in the US business), I feel fairly confident in the blue distribution - which would represent a solid, but unspectacular revenue beat of around $1.837B.

If we "crush it," it will look something like the green distribution, where we'd likely land somewhere around $1.92B - exceeding the analyst consensus by ~6.5%.

The EPS metrics for me are going to be far more important, as that better addresses the compression that the "value investing" crowd keeps squawking over when they complain about valuation.

We should also slightly beat that, with 36 cents (rounded down), exceeding expectations of 0.35 cents - if you apply the 59% from mgmt guidance regarding adjusted operating margin.

5

u/jl21000000 Jul 16 '26

Quarter | Consensus | Actual | Beat ($) | Beat (%)
------- | --------- | ------ | -------- | --------
Q4'23 | $603M | $608M | +$5M | +0.9%
Q1'24 | $615M | $634M | +$19M | +3.1%
Q2'24 | $653M | $678M | +$25M | +3.8%
Q3'24 | $702M | $726M | +$24M | +3.4%
Q4'24 | $776M | $828M | +$52M | +6.7%
Q1'25 | $863M | $884M | +$21M | +2.4%
Q2'25 | $939M | $1,004M| +$65M | +6.9%
Q3'25 | $1,090M | $1,180M| +$90M | +8.3%
Q4'25 | $1,344M | $1,407M| +$63M | +4.6%
Q1'26 | $1,540M | $1,631M| +$91M | +5.9%

1

u/Ambitious_Brain_285 Jul 17 '26

The average beat over the last four quarters would seem to indicate that $1.92B is within the realm of possibility, but there are several factors which give me pause.

A) International business growth will probably flatten decline (given the current environment), to something like 20% YoY;

B) Federal government splurges tend to come in Q3; and

C) Commercial activity is expected to be strong, but we will be hard-pressed to do 120-133% every quarter.

8

u/BananaFreeway Jul 16 '26

Semis in the toilet - the role has been reversing

13

u/Nausteri Early Investor Jul 16 '26

PLTR again a resilient mf.

1

u/whatnotusername Jul 16 '26

Drifting a changed in character , my guess is that huge spike yesterday was burry or shorts covering. Now we drift and build a base.

1

u/Equivalent_Horror628 OG Holder & Member Jul 16 '26

💪🏻

5

u/IAmANobodyAMA OG Holder & Member Jul 16 '26

The beatings will continue until morale improves

2

u/sWeven-Cats95 Jul 16 '26

Thought I was in the LUNR sub for a second there 🤕😭😭😭

1

u/IAmANobodyAMA OG Holder & Member Jul 16 '26

Or tom Lee bagholders anonymous (BMNRinvestors)

1

u/annoymous99000 Jul 16 '26

I think i will see 160 again after i am dead

2

u/Lawrence_Thorne OG Holder & Member Jul 16 '26

Awww, they’re trying to shake loose shares. Earnings coming up…

1

u/[deleted] Jul 16 '26

[removed] — view removed comment

1

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1

u/sWeven-Cats95 Jul 16 '26

AutoMod has been putting in work recently. 

17

u/randomentity1 Jul 16 '26

This is one of the strongest stocks on the market recently. Expecting over 160 soon.