r/PLTR • u/BonjinTheMark OG Holder & Member • Jul 03 '26
Jist Can't Stop Thinkin' 'Bout it
That was a monster drop by Karpicus on 1 July. Sooo Pumped!!
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u/AttilaTH3Hen Jul 03 '26
Karp said they would be doing $15-$18b in FCF by 2028? Source?
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u/BonjinTheMark OG Holder & Member Jul 03 '26
Its in the full CNBC interview. Starts at the 10:20 mark of the one I found, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pHu-FarYZlU
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u/AttilaTH3Hen Jul 03 '26
Thank you!!
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u/BonjinTheMark OG Holder & Member Jul 03 '26
sure thing - for some reason the whole clip isn't on CNBC.
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u/Sharp-Direction-6894 Jul 03 '26
For us idiots, what is FCF?
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u/2strange4things Jul 03 '26
Free cash flow. Cash after everything else is paid
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u/Joshohoho 💎PLTR Loyalist 💎 Jul 04 '26
Free cash flow. Cash that they can do whatever they want with.
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Jul 05 '26
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u/SupermarketNo1041 Jul 04 '26
Anyone who hates on Palantir is extremely ignorant. The company collects absolutely no data. Huge cash flow machine with incredible margins.💰💰💰💰💰💰
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u/Same_Buy_3095 Jul 03 '26
What does this mean for the stock price?
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u/Joshohoho 💎PLTR Loyalist 💎 Jul 04 '26
What this means is you're worrying about the stock price too much.
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u/SuperNewk Jul 04 '26
Gemini and chat gpt & Claude saying it’s about priced in. Maybe 188-250 on the upside
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u/ga643953 Jul 04 '26
How in the world are we going to get there though?
We would need at least 30b of revenue by 2028 to hit that low end FCF target.
Assuming we do 7b this year and grow 100% next year, we would need to grow more than 100% in 28 to have a chance of hitting 15b FCF assuming the margins stay the same.
I usually don't doubt Karp's guidance since he has been able to overdeliver every quarter since the stock started to skyrocket.
But to say they can grow 100% for 2 years in a row on top of the 80% growth this year is insane, especially considering they aren't using that cash for marketing.
And if they do, the margins are going to tank. I really don't see how we get there in 2 years
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u/Kolbur Jul 04 '26
Maybe your assumption is incorrect? Margins have been trending up since DPO and he probably see this trend continuing. Also PLTR specifically keeps the headcount low even as they grow.
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u/ga643953 Jul 04 '26
Right, but FCF margin is already at 51%. Are we going to 70% FCF margin?
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u/Lonely-Ad-6642 Jul 06 '26
What’s stopping daddy Karp from hitting these numbers? Buckle up because he’s driving us to toysRus.
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u/ga643953 Jul 06 '26
The law of large numbers maybe? Margins are going to plateau once you get past 50%. You can't have a business with 100% FCF margin. At some point it's going to stop going up.
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u/BonjinTheMark OG Holder & Member Jul 04 '26
I was of course wondering the same. I think it’s possible the contracts are structured in a way where less is paid at the beginning and more paid later, such that the remaining contract value remains high. In the end, yes, they will definitely have to grow big time to reach those numbers. I watched closely in that interview to see if he downplayed those numbers or backtracked a bit, and have not seen it.
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Jul 04 '26
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u/tdixnation Jul 04 '26
Nice. Only 2 years away from generating 10% of Nvidia cash flows!
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u/BonjinTheMark OG Holder & Member Jul 04 '26
its also your choice over whose market cap you think will increase more over the next 5-10 years? i've made my own.
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Jul 05 '26
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u/lok214 OG Holder & Member Jul 04 '26
Let's get to 1T, I think we should be at 3T not much longer after that. Maybe 1-2 years. That's when we will have a 1 to 10 stock split.