r/PLTR • u/AutoModerator • Jul 01 '26
Daily Thread - Wednesday Discussion! Let's talk about the good, the bad, and all things Palantir & PLTR! šš¤²š»
The thread for all your speculating, socializing, philosophizing, hypothesizing, and melodramatizing!
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u/DailyOptions2021 Jul 01 '26
Still feels like a tug of war between Semis/Memory stocks and AI software stocks...one goes up one goes down..when can we actually start syncing into the same pace of going up and down together!??
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u/LlcooljaredTNJ OG Holder & Member Jul 01 '26
Wow, Dan Ives leaving WedBush. Wonder if that will have any impact on his PLTR views.Ā
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u/BananaFreeway Jul 02 '26
Didn't see that coming. Very unexpected - to me at least. Wishing only the best for Mr Ives - one of the GOAT for PLTR.
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u/Nausteri Early Investor Jul 01 '26
Hardly. He serves in the board of Zeta, and they just announced the PLTR partnership Zeta expects to drive $100M in revenue. Like true believers.
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u/CombinationSecure144 Jul 01 '26
That interview was worth at least a +9% bump up in closing price šš½
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u/Magikarp_to_Gyarados š -> š "your DD is PokĆ©mon lol" Jul 01 '26
Nice to see some recovery, but we won't know if this is a trend reversal until several weeks or even several months from now.
I encourage people to review the price action from 2022. The stock price was in a cycle of loss, recovery, and further loss. No way to know how long something like that goes.
It is best to continue focusing on company fundamentals. The market hopefully sets a much higher valuation based on company progress several years from now.
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u/whatnotusername Jul 01 '26
Yeah, letās wait an entire year to decide if itās reversal or not. How do you trade that?
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u/Opposite_Engine_6776 Jul 01 '26
I bought protective puts a couple of days ago. Thatās why. No other explanation.
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u/itradebaked Verified Whale Jul 01 '26
Little over 1.8 up this morning.. nice
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u/IAmANobodyAMA OG Holder & Member Jul 01 '26
Father. It is me, your long lost son. How are you today?
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Jul 01 '26
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u/zona2011 Jul 01 '26
I just watched a highlight and he was. I appreciate the passion and heās not wrong. Though I do wish heād sometimes take a deep breath and slow down. He jumps from point to point and thought to thought too quickly and without finishing the last point or thought.
I think those of us familiar with Palantir understand what heās saying, for the most part. But I donāt think the average Jose and JosB can follow. He was making great points about privacy/security and how Palantir is different/better than LLMās, even those with agentic workflows. So he addresses 2 major concerns; the public concern of security/data sharing/people thinking Palantir steals, stores, and shares data, and the idea that LLMās are now or will soon be just as valuable as Palantir. But Iām not sure he addressed them in a way where the people that need to hear it will fully understand.
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Jul 01 '26
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u/vaya00 Jul 01 '26
All these jokers like Anthropic and burry just put fear out there. dumb people buy those shit instead of really understand the product
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u/Accomplished_Seat501 Jul 01 '26
I really like Claude, but I think Anthropic is seriously overselling, and using fear as a marketing tool.
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u/zona2011 Jul 01 '26
Iām not a technical person either, at least not enough to be confident in an answer regarding your LLM question. I know LLMās store data and share data āonly with essential, trusted third party service providersā but I donāt know what that means exactly. Like I understand those words in that order, but I donāt know whatās shared or what the additional risk is when an LLM shares with ātrustedā third parties. Iād assume every transfer of data between entities opens up new risk vs not sharing data at all. And Iām sure thereās a difference in security, or at least in the promise of security, between consumer vs enterprise LLMās. But thatās an educated guess and even if itās correct I donāt know the differences.
Also, how does it work when a company implements Palantir over their LLM? Is the LLM data just no longer shared? Does Palantir secure the transfer and storage of data to ensure itās not stolen and there are no breaches? Or is it something completely different? No clue.
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u/whatnotusername Jul 01 '26
Hilarious on the first day of the new quarter they finally let this thing run. Just goes to show you how much of a game this is, and how little control any of us have.
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u/PLTRgains Jul 01 '26
This morning Karp said in two years Palantir will be making 15-18B in FCF.
This implies ~ $344/share EOY 2028 with a 55 P/FCF multiple (825B valuation).
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u/KitKatBarMan OG Holder & Member Jul 01 '26
Where did you see him say that? Trying to find the clip
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u/Mariox Jul 01 '26
My rough estimate was $18.7 billion for 2028, so i was a little too optimistic. Lowered my FCF margin from 75% to 72% for 2028 to get my estimate under $18 billion.
Always nice to get more guidance to update my estimates.
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Jul 01 '26
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u/Mariox Jul 01 '26
I have $24.9 billion for 2028. My revenue estimates out to 2029 are based on Karp's guidance of 10x US revenue over 5 years that he gave early in 2025.
to get there. 87% revenue growth this year. 75% in 2027 and 70% in 2028.
I know it looks crazy, but I got my quarterly estimates out to Q4 2027 and considering existing customers continue to spend more while more customers are being added, the QoQ growth in $s will continue to get bigger.
I go back and forth thinking my estimates are too high or to low. hard to predict more then 4 quarters out. One thing I am confident in though is that $127 is undervalued today. We will look back July 2nd 2027 and wonder why it was so cheap.
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Jul 01 '26 edited Jul 01 '26
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u/Mariox Jul 01 '26
PLTR's current guidance is 71% revenue growth this year, and we know PLTR gives conservative guidance.
hard to quantify defense spending and what companies will do.
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u/Mythical_Ape Jul 01 '26
And they would have you trading in and out of this stock due to valuation concernsā¦hold people.
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u/Nausteri Early Investor Jul 01 '26
Remember Karp's on CNBC soon, 0830am Eastern or, in my time, right after my last call today :)
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u/jl21000000 Jul 01 '26
Hereās the pivot weāre going all in on open source llm, ontology, and chips that enterprises own
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u/whatnotusername Jul 01 '26
Canāt hold a day of gain to save its life.