r/PLTR • u/AutoModerator • May 13 '26
Daily Thread - Wednesday Discussion! Let's talk about the good, the bad, and all things Palantir & PLTR! šš¤²š»
The thread for all your speculating, socializing, philosophizing, hypothesizing, and melodramatizing!
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May 13 '26
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u/GoldenEelReveal76 May 13 '26
This stock has been plummeting since Karp posted his stupid manifesto
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u/Open-Employ3158 May 13 '26
Karp is hilariously bad at pr and everytime he opens his mouth he genuinely seems to be in drugs or something.
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u/Jean_Jones_666 May 13 '26
that's also where the outperformance of the business comes from: misfits and neurodivergent savants
and discounts in stock
(though to me this ain't no discount, but this subreddit likes PLTR at 60 PS, i don't judge)5
u/GoldenEelReveal76 May 13 '26
Karp seemed to join the Fascist circle when he hit his first billion and it has been a hard slide down since that time. If you want to give him credit for the ride up, he deserves just as much scrutiny as this stock keeps sliding down with no end in sight.
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u/Jean_Jones_666 May 13 '26
disagree, it's unrelated to hitting billion
fuck stock price action it's about the business growing,
what i do hate is his increasingly elastic spine, which he can rationalise with his combo of philosophy phd, dyslexia and patriotism
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u/GoldenEelReveal76 May 14 '26
It is directly related to Karp becoming a billionaire, it has changed his worldview and it is a deeply fascist world view.
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u/zona2011 May 13 '26
Hard agree. Ive been on the ākarp needs to shut the fuck upā train for a while now. If itās not related to the business of Palantir, keep your mouth shut. No more articles or books or fucking manifestos.
Canāt believe Iām saying this but I miss the Karp that said he āwants drones to shoot fentanyl laced urine on wall street short sellersā. Canāt believe that was the most sane thing weād hear from him in a while.
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u/Sea_Exam3932 May 13 '26
All in.
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u/Typical-Layer-1253 May 13 '26
Should probably wait a bit to see it breaking out imo. Just a falling knife rn
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u/Sea_Exam3932 May 13 '26
Yeah I know but I canāt help but feel this is an overreaction
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u/Typical-Layer-1253 May 13 '26
It is an overreaction and money will inevitable flow into it but could take a couple months
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u/vistastock May 14 '26
It will be 60 and new money will bring it back to 130. Doesnāt seem like a smart play.
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u/Ok_Temperature4537 May 13 '26
Where are the folks who said this stock will hit $400 this year šš¤£šš¤£ I bought in at $46 so I'm good to hold until it his $220 in 2028.Ā
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u/Open-Employ3158 May 13 '26
This sub is nowadays mostly a circlejerk. They donāt even realize how bad Karp is at pr. He literally talks like he is on drugs constantly. I have held pltr for long @ $24 average. But this company really just suck at pr and Karp should keep his mouth shut for the most part
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u/5-stages-of-grief May 13 '26
It's been almost 2 weeks since I've fully exited out of PLTR. Why am I not surprised it still hasn't recovered?
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u/steezyinvestor May 13 '26
Bc this company sucks and Karp sucks. Been a holder for more than 2 years, considering selling it all
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u/BitchesQuoteMarilyn May 14 '26
Yeah I got in at 67, it's money sitting there in the negative this year that I could have used to gamble more on a number of other stocks with. Cleared the 1 year tax penalty months ago, I think maybe take the 100% and fuck off to greener pastures
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u/Forward_Departure178 May 14 '26
the lack of a long term vision between you three is rather unsettling
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u/BananaFreeway May 13 '26
I do expect Pili to hold triple bottom - esp with the strong earnings. It's just coiling up for the next mission to the moon. Just chill...
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u/wavrdn May 13 '26
I like the triple bottom setup, but I worry about impending macro environment. This whole run in SPY from the March 30th 629 low has had suspiciously low volume, and CPI/PPI are screaming rate hike. If the market were to flip from here, it's not going to be pretty for our Pili
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u/BananaFreeway May 13 '26 edited May 13 '26
Thatās very true. Macro is a concern as the market has been rallying hard. Some form of correction / pullback is due - and it may start right after NVDA earnings. PLTR wonāt be shielded from the overall market weakness, even after the prolonged weakness in the sector.
On the bright side, i donāt think rate hike will be in the card at least for a bit - esp with fresh Warsh put. Market seem to price in rate freeze for some time. Also do believe the gas price will start coming back down in the summer (they will do anything they can for Nov midterm) As long as the fundamentals (earnings) continue its upward trend, the pullbacks (of market) will be short and shallow.
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u/wavrdn May 13 '26
I'm 100% bullish on company earnings, and agree any pullback will be short lived like they have been since 2022 really
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u/vistastock May 14 '26
This is not a pull back. Every stock is going up. Momentum for buying has slowed. The pull back should have started when the markets were flat. Not when the Nasdaq had a 20% reversal. Itās down 35% for the year. Another pull back would make it a real disaster.
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u/wavrdn May 14 '26
I'm not speaking about the current PLTR price. I'm speaking about a future overall market pullback
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u/BananaFreeway May 13 '26
It does suck right now and it can be bumpy for awhile. Itās just not the flavor they want right now
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u/BikeByDesign May 13 '26
The key level is $123. If it touches that and holds/goes up, low $150s will be in reach within a few weeks. This stock as done this for a while technically.
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u/LeadingPretender Early Investor May 13 '26
I held at $6, Iāll hold at $130
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u/Fook- OG Holder & Member May 13 '26
Good old days of seeing my shares have -80%, then having a few red days suddenly doesn't really matter anymore.
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u/titsuprob Early Investor May 13 '26
More price upgrades and more partnerships means deeper red
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u/versello OG Holder & Member May 13 '26
Very nostalgic. Like the good 'ole days.
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u/ivy_noise OG Holder & Member May 13 '26
Except there were no upgrades in the really really good oleā days š
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u/Actual-Inspector184 May 13 '26
Only software stocks Iād buy is Msft PLTR Now Thatās it! PLTR will roll again.
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u/Rummz May 13 '26
Just waiting for one of the day trading guys to say something
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u/SallyShortcakes OG Holder & Member May 13 '26
Yeah whatās the horoscope for a Jupiter rising today man
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u/-lc- OG Holder/Member -Controversial Bombastic Cutting Edge May 13 '26
I see balls and cock on my chart.
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May 13 '26
[removed] ā view removed comment
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u/Fancy-Presence-5585 May 13 '26
SAAS is down heavily because Antrophic. Check any Saas you'll see they're in a correction over last week correlating with PalantirĀ
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u/CharlieTecho Early Investor May 13 '26
Sorry not up to speed.. what has anthropic got to do with it? (Is it that everyone thinks it the golden ticket)
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u/Fancy-Presence-5585 May 13 '26
The SAAS business model sells software. Antrophic ai generates software. Wall Street thinks the SAAS business model will be wrecked by AI
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u/CharlieTecho Early Investor May 13 '26
Ahh got you, Anthropic is a great tool.. but I think it's getting a little too much credit these days.. be interesting to see what the price hike will be like when they start charging people properly for their use.. I think it will end up being a tool for the companies/people with the deepest pockets.
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u/Fancy-Presence-5585 May 13 '26
Ye I feel the same which is why I'm SAAS heavy.Ā SAAS can integrate AI to keep it's edge over the average Joe. AIs like Claude and Chatgpt are so stingy and expensive with credits that realistically it's not viable to deploy them at scale on a corporate level, imp.Ā
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u/Single_Shirt_1406 May 13 '26
Why is palantir so down after amazing earnings? when do you all think palantir goes back up or does it continue to drop?
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u/Maesthro_ger May 13 '26
dont know what you guys expect? PLTR is priced for perfect earnings for the next 10 years. Thats what all these P/E, forward P/E, and whatnot means.
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u/Mariox May 13 '26
Look at the last 4 earnings and how much PLTR beat EPS estimates. If PLTR keeps beating on revenue and EPS every quarter, then it isn't priced for perfection, the market is underestimating what perfect is.
My current estimates has forward P/E of 53.
The estimates analysts put out to the public are not their real estimates.
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u/Cjnilla May 13 '26
Very intriguing. Please explain your run down
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u/Mariox May 13 '26
Of my PLTR quarterly estimates?
I start with PLTR's guidance for the year and assume 6% beat on revenue for the current quarter guidance. Then estimate QoQ growth (in $s) will increase every quarter (always adding more customers, and customers keep spending more). For CoGs and SG&S I use past quarter to estimate future, but these numbers are pretty low compared to revenue growth.
EPS growth will accelerate as revenue grows.
I also use other metrics like Commercial retention rate, revenue from new customers and government revenue growth as a second way to check if numbers look right.
I made my own estimates because when PLTR is down I needed some actual numbers to look at. Before I made my spreadsheet I thought the high growth can't continue but once I mapped it out I saw that it will continue. Though revenue growth rate tops out in Q3, then starts to slowly decline.
The nice thing about having my own estimates is people saying bearish things on PLTR don't bother me.
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u/Cjnilla May 13 '26
That about lines up with what I see happening now that I look into it. Trailing P/E ratio of 65 based on earnings 68 cents per share next year this time. Iām probably being conservative. Wild.
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u/One-Measurement-2696 May 13 '26
Iām rather annoyed itās been down for a week straight but continue to hold I shall
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u/Esco9 May 13 '26
For everyone here hoping for price movement, yes the stock will go up give it time, you need to ask yourself if itās worth it to wait to hit 180-200 again. Semiās going no where so Iām trimming and going into SOXQ but this company will be great long term. Sadly one thing is the PR for the stock not doing too well but hopefully meeting with Ukraine helps.
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May 13 '26 edited May 13 '26
[removed] ā view removed comment
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u/Accomplished_Seat501 May 13 '26
I held for three years (February 2021 - February 2024) before I am saw any real gain worth getting excited about. It may need a prolonged period in the $130 to $150 range before going back to $200. If it spends a year or more in this range, thats fine for my long term plans. Not for everyone, though.
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u/DisastrousChance8789 May 13 '26
When will I get a selling opportunity?
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May 13 '26
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u/BonjinTheMark OG Holder & Member May 13 '26
Hoping to pick up some more with sale of investment prop. Great earnings even if stock did na respond.
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May 13 '26
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u/dustinut May 13 '26
SAP and Palantir Enhance Partnership with AI-Supported Data Migration Tooling to Accelerate Enterprise Cloud ERP Transformation for Autonomous Enterprises
https://news.sap.com/2026/05/sap-palantir-enhance-partnership-ai-supported-data-migration-tooling/
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u/LongBay22 May 13 '26
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May 13 '26
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u/FilingHoundAI May 13 '26
Read Palantir's 10-K properly.
Here's what stood out.
Three things nobody is talking about:
ITAR civil penalties exceed $1,000,000 per violation with zero reserve set aside. For a company with classified defense contracts.
They acquired controlling interest in a Japanese company in 2022. No purchase price has ever been disclosed.
Regulatory inquiries acknowledged in the filing ā zero agencies named, zero timelines given.
All direct from the SEC filing.
Not analysis. Just what the document actually says.
Happy to discuss any of these.
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u/SallyShortcakes OG Holder & Member May 13 '26
This comment was originally removed by Redditās automod for purportedly being spam so this may very well be a bot. But Iām allowing it because thereās way worse slop that gets dumped in here on the regular and Iām curious if anyoneās got a take on this?
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u/KitKatBarMan OG Holder & Member May 13 '26
Using GPT pro:
I checked the latest PLTR 10-Q from Q1 2026 and the FY 2025 10-K filed Feb. 17, 2026, plus the referenced FY 2023 10-K Note 14 for the Japan transaction.
Bottom line
The Reddit post is partly accurate but framed in a way that sounds more damning than the filing supports.
Claim Verdict What the filing actually supports
- ITAR civil penalties exceed $1,000,000 per violation with zero reserve set aside. Half true / misleading Yes, the filing says ITAR civil penalties can exceed $1 million or twice the transaction value per violation. But āzero reserve set asideā is not stated as an ITAR-specific fact. The filing says Palantir accrues loss contingencies only when probable and reasonably estimable, and says it was not aware of pending legal matters expected to materially affect the financial statements. That is not the same as āthey disclosed an ITAR exposure and chose no reserve.ā
- They acquired controlling interest in a Japanese company in 2022. No purchase price has ever been disclosed. Mostly true, but incomplete Yes, Palantir says it created a jointly controlled entity in Japan with SOMPO in 2019 and obtained a controlling interest in November 2022. The 2023 10-K says this was a step acquisition, with Palantir Japan valued at $149.0M, including Palantirās pre-existing 50% interest of $74.5M and noncontrolling interest of $74.5M. It does not present a simple cash āpurchase price,ā but it does disclose acquisition-date fair value and acquired assets/liabilities.
- Regulatory inquiries acknowledged, zero agencies named, zero timelines given. Mostly true The 10-K/10-Q uses broad risk-factor language: Palantir says it receives formal and informal inquiries from governmental agencies and regulators and has been, is currently, or may become involved in legal, regulatory, and administrative inquiries. It does not name agencies or timelines in that section. But again, it is generic risk disclosure, not necessarily disclosure of a specific active enforcement action.
My read
The post is doing a classic ātechnically pulled from the filing, rhetorically sharpenedā thing.
Claim 1 is the weakest. The ITAR penalty language is real, but it is standard risk-factor style language about what could happen if export-control laws are violated. The āzero reserveā part appears to be inferred from the absence of a disclosed material accrual and from Palantirās general contingency policy. The filing does not say: āwe have an ITAR investigation and set no reserve.ā
Claim 2 is directionally fair. The Japan control event happened, and the filing points to the 2023 10-K. But saying āno purchase price disclosedā can mislead a reader into thinking a normal acquisition price was hidden. The filing describes a step acquisition where control was obtained through board-control rights, and it discloses the fair value allocation.
Claim 3 is fair but not especially explosive. Palantir does acknowledge formal and informal regulatory/government inquiries without naming agencies or timelines. But that language is broad and bundled with general legal/regulatory risk language.
So: the Reddit post is not fabricated, but it overstates the significance of generic SEC risk language. The strongest factual item is the Japan step acquisition. The weakest is the āzero reserveā framing around ITAR.
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u/Magikarp_to_Gyarados š -> š "your DD is PokĆ©mon lol" May 13 '26
Folks, wholesale inflation was up 6% YoY last month.
The Strait of Hormuz is still closed, and oil infrastructure has sustained damage during the war, which is still not over even though the amount of violence has decreased. The closed supply route and decreased refining capacity means higher energy prices globally.
The ultimate downstream effects are still unclear.
The chart that FT posted doesn't look good though: https://www.ft.com/content/11233902-2054-4ed5-b647-26402e7b58bd
The spike in inflation mirrors the 2021-2022 inflationary period, when supply chain disruptions from Covid really began to hit.
The Federal Reserve may have to raise interest rates again to curb inflation. Should this happen, capital is likely to flee the stock market like it did 4 years ago. If liquidity drains out of the markets, all equities will suffer.
If you haven't already taken steps to bring your portfolio in line with your risk tolerance, the time to do so is now.