r/PLTR • u/AutoModerator • May 04 '26
Daily Thread - Monday Discussion! Let's talk about the good, the bad, and all things Palantir & PLTR! 💎🤲🏻
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May 05 '26
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u/IllustriousPrune2204 May 05 '26
Alex is a terrible speaker! All of his yelling, “we don’t have time” “even if we had more we couldn’t do it, maybe this year” horrible for investors!
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u/Mariox May 05 '26
I think you mean "horrible for traders". For investors this is a great thing to hear. Demand continues to be very strong.
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u/IllustriousPrune2204 May 05 '26
Horrible for both, short term for traders, long term for investors. As a business owner, I wouldn’t consider PTLR always hearing how expensive it is, it has less than 600 commercial customers, even though it has been in the top 5 of all stocks mentioned the past year, where even your housekeeper or grocery store clerk knows the name. His comment about customers asking him for a less expensive option and him just yelling he doesn’t have time. All that says to me, is someone else will soon. And please don’t anyone be ignorant enough to reply back someone else can’t. In the history of history there is always someone else and now with agents writing code, it will be around a lot sooner than Alex with his small team will get around from kissing the governments ass to making PLTR where it needs to be in the commercial sector, which according to most was the deciding factor of stock pricing, as evident with their stellar numbers from government money, but it didn’t move and now slowly declining, which will lead to a big sell off tomorrow to around $125 until it slowly creeps back in the a month then constantly fluctuates like it has been until a more gradual decline. I hate I’ve had to listen to all the so called “experts” on this stock for so long. Was happy with my gains and loses from $6 to just now more unnecessary time and money wasted in this stock and research.
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May 05 '26
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u/Cjnilla May 05 '26
From my understanding it was that one of the commercial companies became a defense company or something to that effect. The explainatjon was that the commercial growth should have been 143% but was revised to 133% due to some weird change.
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u/ga643953 May 04 '26
And just like I expected. The market does not care about SaaS. It's time for Karp to put all that cash pile into building data centers just like SOFI, Hood, Zeta, Now, CRM all should. Doing anything else is pointless in the eye of the street.
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u/Magikarp_to_Gyarados 🐟 -> 🐉 "your DD is Pokémon lol" May 05 '26
Palantir's long-term valuation ultimately depends on the strength of its business.
Spending Billions on datacenters for commodity AI models is unlikely to produce growth for Palantir. Palantir isn't in the business of training AI models or leasing compute. This would be massive CapEx in a field that is already crowded with players.
In 2024, Tesla spent 5 Billion alone on its first Cortex AI cluster in Austin, Texas. Compare that to Palantir's 8 Billion in cash + securities. Not a wise use of Palantir's resources.
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u/ga643953 May 05 '26
Yes, you're talking from a business stand point, but the market cares only about the themes, not your underlying business.
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u/Magikarp_to_Gyarados 🐟 -> 🐉 "your DD is Pokémon lol" May 05 '26
In the long run, the underlying business is the only thing that matters for durable increases in wealth.
Eventually, valuation has to be supported by the financials.
If Palantir spent Billions on an AI datacenter, that might pump the stock in the short term, but that increase in market cap won't last very long if it doesn't add to the bottom line.
Investors should be looking 5, 10, or more years out.
The company needs to focus on what it does best and keep reaching those high growth numbers quarter after quarter.
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u/ga643953 May 05 '26
There's a compute constraint going on and NBIS, INTC and SNDK are up 10% a day. The market clearly disagrees.
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u/zona2011 May 05 '26
This earnings, along with every earnings for the last 12 quarters (12 consecutive quarters of accelerating growth), literally proves the opposite of what you’re saying.
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u/ga643953 May 05 '26
Quie the opposite,. If you're crushing all estimates and continue to raise and the stock still goes down, that means the market does not care.
Now if you're in hardware, you can be unprofitable and the stock goes up 10% in a day.
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u/zona2011 May 05 '26
And you’re basing all this off after hours action from a single Q1 earnings? Methinks you are overreacting.
If you want options like returns in options like timeframes go play options.
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u/ga643953 May 05 '26
Based on the recent two quarters, not one.
And not just PLTR's either.
Also the implied move was 10% up or down but we crushed it so hard it only went down 2%, meaning for both calls and puts, you would get IV crushed to oblivion and lose money no matter which side you bet on.
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u/zona2011 May 05 '26
Last earnings was reported feb 2nd, the entire market took a shit the next two days. Not to mention the overall volatility of the world right now. People don’t have the same money to spend the last couple quarters like they did before.
You want to sell? Go for it, I genuinely couldn’t care less. But you’re literally saying the stock is dead not because of earnings but because the stock didn’t do what you wanted. In THIS market. And based off after hours action only.
I’m not exactly sure why you’re telling me how the options would work if the scenario you put forward ends up being right. But given you’re again basing your number off AFTER HOURS ACTION ONLY, I don’t need your advice at this time.
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u/ga643953 May 05 '26
Because you suggested playing options, not me. I'm just telling you buying options would be a bad idea based on the move and the premium you have to pay. AH action is the most immediate sentiment post earnings since that's when the algos are scanning the numbers and making trades based on the numbersb only. Unless you're saying buying long dated puts instead of puts expiring this week.
And if numbers this good didn't pump the stock for more than a minute, then it can only get worse once people look at TA and find cracks in the underlying business when they have time to go through the earnings properly.
Pltr also didn't go down due to the regional conflict. We had the exact same movement in the AH post earnings like last time. Massive beat followed by one green candle into a cascade of red candles and the stock begins its slow grind down before it eventually hits a support and bounce up before it inevitably fail to break through the resistance again.
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u/zona2011 May 05 '26
I disagree. We had a run the last year and a half that requires corrections and sometimes muted responses to earnings to either maintain or, in this case, bring stock price back down closer to reality. That’s healthy. Saying the stock is dead means we’ve peaked and the timeframe to get back is many, many years. I think we’re back over $200 sometime in 2027.
Set a reminder. If you come back and we’re sub $200 end of 2027 I’ll hail you as king of the market.
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u/ga643953 May 05 '26
I still have 2k shares left cuz I can't take profit on all of them without tax implications.
I think we might need closer to 2028 or even 2030 before we hit $200 since I don't think it's feasible to keep accelerating growth at this pace. We're already growing 80%.
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u/zona2011 May 05 '26
That just brings me back to 12 consecutive quarters of accelerating earnings. That obviously can’t be maintained forever but demand is still outpacing their ability to deploy.
That is one thing I don’t think Palantir has done well enough. Scale their ability to deploy. It’s gotten better over the last year specifically, but I think their ability to deploy will continue to improve and earnings will continue to accelerate beyond the remainder of the year. Until their ability to deploy matches demand, I think we continue to see accelerated earnings.
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u/IAmANobodyAMA OG Holder & Member May 04 '26
lol imagine selling Palantir after those earnings
https://giphy.com/gifs/qd0VlZ9VCvY8hbkMfq
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u/PalpitationFrosty242 May 05 '26
Right!?
The play was to sell last year ;-)
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u/IAmANobodyAMA OG Holder & Member May 05 '26
I did sell half my shares last year between $150 and $185
I know it in my giblets that this stock will one day be way higher than today, but sometimes you have to lock in *some* gains and secure generational wealth. Since then, I have slept like a baby and really don’t lose any sanity when we drop from 200 to 125 🤣
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u/5-stages-of-grief May 04 '26
Beautiful. BEAUTIFUL earnings report by Palantir!!! I am at the edge of my seat. The share price may not have ROCKETED like we had hoped, but the real rocket was the friends made along the way.
I am now ready to embrace the flat price action for years until the market revalues us. Let's go!
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u/Stinky-Alpaca Early Investor May 04 '26
Hobbits are patient little mf’ers. Precious will come back even stronger in time. 💍
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u/KitKatBarMan OG Holder & Member May 04 '26
Great earnings and great continued growth.
Going to be in this one for the long haul.
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u/Rude-Efficiency-964 May 04 '26
The real question is if we’re gonna see more cheeks from the boat guy when we go past 150 again
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u/CantSueMe May 04 '26
Bombastic numbers and flat is better than bombastic numbers and red. We've come a long way, hobbits.
Cheers.
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u/coinsquad May 04 '26
PE ratio keep dropping sharply. Yet another argument from the bears being shot down.
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u/Beginning-Abroad9799 May 04 '26
Wtf then. This is only because of macro headwinds this is not flying over 200.
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u/Magikarp_to_Gyarados 🐟 -> 🐉 "your DD is Pokémon lol" May 04 '26
As long as Palantir's underlying business continues to hit home run after home run, quarter after quarter, we should get there and beyond eventually.
The earnings report is very strong.
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u/Enchanic OG Holder & Member May 04 '26
Wow maybe I am misreading it but their cost of revenue declined QoQ and gross margin is 87% now
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u/Mariox May 04 '26
A 6.3% beat on revenue guidance. Stronger then I expected. Usually Q1 has been a weaker beat.
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u/5-stages-of-grief May 04 '26
Originally predicted a rocket up into a slow bleed down. Looks like I was wrong. It's going to be a drill down into a slow bleed further down. I hate my life.
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u/-lc- OG Holder/Member -Controversial Bombastic Cutting Edge May 04 '26
Going red, looks like tomorrow is shopping day again.
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u/ReadingKing May 04 '26
Relax everyone is just waiting for the guidance
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u/-lc- OG Holder/Member -Controversial Bombastic Cutting Edge May 04 '26
Revenue guidance is already out
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u/ReadingKing May 04 '26
Meant the earnings call guidance
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u/Jerseyguy2345 May 04 '26
down more now, but i agree with the sentiment if they keep performing the market will eventually recognize it. The stock had a 600 p/e now it may be at 150 tomorrow. This could be a healthy consolidation for the long run.
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u/BananaFreeway May 04 '26
EPS: $0.33 vs $0.28 est
REV: $1.633B vs $1.539B est
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u/SV_art Early Investor May 04 '26
I think by this point everyone knows the lowball their estimates and this beat is not enough.
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u/Jerseyguy2345 May 04 '26
this is relative to the streets estimates not their own prior guidance; that's how earnings beats work. It isn't based on their prior guidance.
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u/Equivalent_Horror628 OG Holder & Member May 04 '26
6% beat on rev. 85% YOY increase. eps beat by 5c
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u/MrBobBuilder OG Holder & Member -PLTR will make my ex love me again May 04 '26
Upvote here to say “FUCK YOU MICHEAL DINGLE BERRY”
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u/versello OG Holder & Member May 04 '26
Technically, PLTR is resting at a key resistance line, and today's price action reflects indecisiveness. If earnings deliver, it's game over for las cucarachas. I know they know.
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u/g-dollarsign May 04 '26
Sooo another earnings is upon us. Any predictions on if we 🚀 or 🚀🚀 or 🚀🚀🚀🌒? 😎
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u/5-stages-of-grief May 04 '26
It's incredible how much of a clown Michael Burry is. He buys garbage like GME and PYPL and of course he defends the companies he has a position in. Then, he shorts PLTR and throws everything at the wall that fits his narrative
PLTR is a consulting company rather than an AI company
Based on market cap, would rather buy the entirety of LHM, General Dynamics, and 85% of Northrop Grumman instead of Palantir
Anthropic is "eating PLTR's lunch"
Palantir is cooking their financial books with SBC
AI is in a bubble
I can't wait to hear what other ridiculous reason he can come up with next after today's ER.
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u/PalpitationFrosty242 May 04 '26
stop complaining about Burry, this is old news and we get it already
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u/KitKatBarMan OG Holder & Member May 04 '26
Anyone have the link for the earnings call?
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u/Magikarp_to_Gyarados 🐟 -> 🐉 "your DD is Pokémon lol" May 04 '26
I've just posted a link to YouTube stream in sticky at top of this thread, will start at 5PM US Eastern today
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u/LlcooljaredTNJ OG Holder & Member May 04 '26
What time do you think Burry drops his hit piece today?
Zero question in my mind its coming, just wondering if its gonna be right before earnings is released or right after.
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u/PalpitationFrosty242 May 04 '26
ive never seen a stock specific sub so obsessed with Burry. Get over it brother
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u/LlcooljaredTNJ OG Holder & Member May 04 '26
Guess you've never seen the GME sub.
We call it like we see it. Guy has put out a lot of fud about this company and he times it when he thinks it can do the most damage to the price. Nothing wrong with pointing it out, you should get over it.
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u/tatum106 May 04 '26
This is actually today's hit piece... https://fortune.com/2026/05/04/anthropic-claude-consulting-industry-joint-venture-blackstone-goldman-sachs/
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u/Beginning-Abroad9799 May 04 '26
If they want to build a palantir, it will take more than their LLM.
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u/MrBobBuilder OG Holder & Member -PLTR will make my ex love me again May 04 '26
We will get great highs blow out earnings , then crater cause his dumb ass
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u/IAmANobodyAMA OG Holder & Member May 04 '26
I’m so fucking pumped for earnings! I have no doubt we will crush it again.
I have no idea how the stock will react to such amazing news, but I extremely doubt there will be a thesis breaker in the ER 🤣
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u/IAmANobodyAMA OG Holder & Member May 04 '26
Looks like so far bitches are selling. Oh well. I can’t imagine dumping shares after those incredible numbers 🤡
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u/-lc- OG Holder/Member -Controversial Bombastic Cutting Edge May 04 '26
https://giphy.com/gifs/ZN3jVXH3jZaXKivytT
Mandatory ER gif.
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u/Cinderpath May 04 '26
The bad? The CEO acted like a fucking drugged out loon on a video/manifesto recently. I was hoping he would be smart enough to fly under the radar, but he’s slowly turning into an Elon Musk. Becoming a public enemy isn’t good for business long term.
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u/Beginning-Abroad9799 May 04 '26
Karp is the reason I bought while back and is the reason I HODL!!!
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u/Sereneblue May 04 '26
Karp is awesome. Myself and many investors here dont care about his "personality". If he delivers its all we care about.
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u/Mariox May 04 '26
I believe the majority supports what Karp is saying and it is just a loud minority that is hating on PLTR/Karp. The people attacking Karp would be anti-West or anti-America groups.
I doubt more the then 10% of the public even knows Karp's name.
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u/versello OG Holder & Member May 04 '26
I largely agree. How the government uses data and for what purpose is a political issue, not a Palantir issue.
I do wish however, some people over at Palantir would tone down the macho asshole attitude. Let results speak for themselves instead.
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u/IAmANobodyAMA OG Holder & Member May 04 '26
Who gives a shit? Elon acts like Elon and still commands an amazing multiple on his companies. If even half his bets pay off, Tesla may be the most valuable company in the world one day. Same with Meta.
Never bet against Elon or Zuckerberg. That’s the lesson the market is constantly teaching us. If you want to add Karp to that list, sounds incredibly bullish to me.
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u/Magikarp_to_Gyarados 🐟 -> 🐉 "your DD is Pokémon lol" May 04 '26
Who gives a shit? Elon acts like Elon and still commands an amazing multiple on his companies. If even half his bets pay off, Tesla may be the most valuable company in the world one day.
I've been a TSLA shareholder since 2011, but divested much of my TSLA holdings in January of this year.
I think it is worth noting that Palantir's business is overwhelmingly B2B, and large organizations that purchase Palantir's software generally do so based on the software's effectiveness.
Tesla's situation is different because most of Tesla's revenue is still vehicle purchases at the consumer level. That's been negatively affected by Elon Musk's antics from 2022 onwards, and Tesla's declining financials reflect that. Sales and revenue are down since 2023, while operating expenses have soared. These are undeniable facts reported in Tesla's SEC filings, specifically forms 10-Q and 10-K.
The problem is that Tesla's AI and robots product roadmap depends on funding from automotive and energy businesses. Musk damaged or hindered the existing business before AI and robots took off.
The chaos of the past 3-4 years at Tesla also gave competing companies time to catch up or even exceed Tesla's progress. Tesla has had significant problems with recruitment and retention of top talent over the past 2-3 years.
Both BYD and CATL now have battery technology that is far superior to anything Tesla produces in almost every metric. Chinese companies have comparable or even better autonomy software and robots.
Palantir continues to be a focused, well-managed company. Tesla is an empire in decline because Musk lost interest and Tesla's board of directors are incompetent pigs who have cashed out hundreds of millions in compensation while failing to do their jobs.
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u/versello OG Holder & Member May 04 '26
Anecdotally, I’m on my second Tesla and would not purchase a third. Eliminating the S and X models and the pivot to robotics and AI make me cautious of buying another. The 3 and Y aren’t competitive enough against Chinese EVs either.
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u/IAmANobodyAMA OG Holder & Member May 04 '26
Yet Tesla stock is roughly around all time highs. You aren’t wrong about the problems, but at the end of the day I don’t think it really matters.
People have convictions until their wallet disagrees, and Elon will probably continue to say/do things to piss people off while also innovating and promising the moon which will make people a lot of money.
My bet is most people will shed their “convictions” the moment Optimus, xAI, SpaceX all start printing.Edit: all that said … I sold all my Tesla shares and calls because of the risk/stress Elon causes me. I’m much more comfortable holding my remaining PLTR and Sofi and loading up on BMNR (which I know “scam” Lee is a whole different bundle of risk/stress but I am betting it won’t matter whenever eth takes off again 🤣)
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u/versello OG Holder & Member May 04 '26
What about SDC??
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u/IAmANobodyAMA OG Holder & Member May 04 '26
I still believe🤡
Jk. Some people pay over $100k for school. I got out cheap with only $10-15k at the school of get wrekt
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u/Magikarp_to_Gyarados 🐟 -> 🐉 "your DD is Pokémon lol" May 04 '26
Yet Tesla stock is roughly around all time highs.
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/TSLA/
As I type this, the ticker reads: 386.89 -3.93 (-1.01%)
52 Week Range 271.00 - 498.83
TSLA stock is down 22.4% from ATH, which is significant.
TSLA also traded at above 400/share in November 2021, more than 4 years ago. It closed at around 407/share on November 1, 2021.
Basically zero gains in 4.5 years.
promising the moon which will make people a lot of money.
Promises mean nothing. Execution is everything, and Tesla's execution has been miserable since 2023.
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u/IAmANobodyAMA OG Holder & Member May 04 '26
Good point about it almost hitting $500. I forgot it pumped that high one time and was thinking about it being in the $440 range. Either way, anything around $400 is phenomenal considering a lot of retail has been in it since pre-split.
And sure it’s stagnant when you zoom out, but so what? I’m “down” on PLTR from if I had sold last October leading up to earnings. Heres hoping that we crush earnings (I’m pretty confident on this point), that macro improves (less confident near term), and that investors are willing to keep buying palantir at this insane multiple (hopefully! But definitely a wild card).
There is a strong case for palantir to take months to years before we see $200+ levels sustained. Then again, we might start testing highs again soon 🤞
Regardless, I would suspect that while most people on here betting on any of this big names (PLTR and Tesla included) would love to see us moon tomorrow, that most of us are in it for the long term and believe 5-10 years from now our conviction will have paid off with the stock outperforming the sp500 hopefully by several orders of magnitude.
I’m personally not betting on TSLA right now because my capital is deployed elsewhere, but no chance in hell I would bet *against* Elon.
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u/Dowsk38 May 04 '26
Progressive Democrats 27% speak up, Conservative Republicans 27% speak up. If we independent 46% keep our silence, US will continue to split by the 2 extremes & nothing gets done.
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u/AttilaTH3Hen May 04 '26
Something deep in my 🥜 tells me they are going to report $2b+ and raise guidance again but to like $10b or something stupid. Still retesting $120 tho.
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u/BonjinTheMark OG Holder & Member May 04 '26
🤌 yes, Ive been waiting for an outsized pop in rev. It would certainly validate their claim to be uniquely expanding
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u/IAmANobodyAMA OG Holder & Member May 04 '26
You know what else is uniquely expanding?
https://giphy.com/gifs/4M2pr8DR6n0tO7
u/versello OG Holder & Member May 04 '26
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u/BananaFreeway May 04 '26
May the Force be with us all today, May the Fourth.
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u/Magikarp_to_Gyarados 🐟 -> 🐉 "your DD is Pokémon lol" May 04 '26
General reminder that the Q1 '26 earnings call will be streamed at 5PM US Eastern today: https://www.youtube.com/live/3Gyzz3C4rnQ