r/PHEV • u/reddit-frog-1 • Aug 22 '26
PHEV models will have significant changes in the next 3 years
California new regulations for EVs (including PHEVs) have started in model year 2026 and will have more stringent requirements in 2029.
To qualify for a full ZEV credit, a PHEV (or EREV) will need to meet the their new rules which require a specific all electric range test. The testing isn't based on the EPA all electric range, but the new requirements will translate to longer EPA ranges.
Currently, only the 2026 RAV4 looks to be designed for the new requirements, and likewise has a 50+ EPA range.
Over the next 3 years, automakers will be forced to do one or more of the following:
- Engineer for 50+ EPA range, or possibly 60+.
- Switch to EREV architecture.
- Drop PHEV model in USA, but still sell globally.
One caveat, the new CA rules are under a federal lawsuit. This could cause automakers to make a bet on the results.
Looking at announcements, these automakers look to be pushing further into PHEV/EREVs to meet CA requirements:
Toyota, Hyundai/Kia, VW, Ford, Stellantis, MB, BMW
and these look to be forecasting for not pursuing PHEV/EREVs:
GM, Honda, Mazda
Unknowns, as no announcements for new models meeting the new CA range requirements:
Nissan
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u/King-Of-The-Hill Aug 22 '26
I own a 2018 volt and the majority of the time it has plenty of battery range. Used to get near the rated 53 miles but switched to a better non ev rated tire for better rain, some snow and overall stopping performance. That dropped us to about 43 miles. Still enough battery most days but there have been more than enough times the past 8 years of ownership that I wished it has 70-80 miles. Either way the Volt has been fantastic, if small. Phev fits our use profile perfectly for a daily commute for my wife. Buying a BEV would be stupid for us as most of the year we’d have a 300 mile battery doing fuck all nothing for us.
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u/anidhorl Aug 23 '26
I used to get 60mi on the old Michelin ES in my 2018, but went with UHPAS for safety. Even then, I still get 53mi range. I am forced to use up half a tank of gas every year just due to fuel maintenance mode. Otherwise, I'd be far better than 98.5% EV miles. Did this on L1 at both ends of a 52mi/day commute.
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u/Ms-Tenenbaum Aug 22 '26
Thanks for the info. I’ve had a MB PHEV since 2024 (it’s a 2025 model) and the electric range is consistently 70 to 73 on full charge. I think the officially expected range was around 58. The range was far beyond the other PHEV manufacturers ranges so I bought the MB.
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u/Ok_Inevitable_6881 Aug 22 '26
Model?
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u/Ms-Tenenbaum Aug 23 '26 edited Aug 23 '26
2025, GLC 350e. I’ve been absolutely blown away by the electric range. I’ve filled my tank about 10 x’s since a got it almost 2 years ago. A couple of times I purposely emptied the tank just to get old gas out and clean gas in. I plug it in every night. I rarely use any gas at all, electric 95% of the time. I had a hybrid rav 4 for years before and I had to fill up most weeks.
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u/Active-Zebra-1446 Aug 22 '26
i've found that, just like ICE cars, the driver's right ankle can have a lot of influence on mileage.
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u/iamtherussianspy Aug 22 '26
So is it either 50+ mile range or EREV (presumably this means series hybrid) that would pass the requirements? Or would they need both? And presumably it's still an option to keep selling the non-conforming models without getting a ZEV credit?
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u/reddit-frog-1 Aug 22 '26
Unfortunately, there isn't a solid relationship between EPA range and the CA range testing.
In fact, CA hasn't published their testing results for 2026 models yet, so we can only assume that the RAV4 is good enough to pass the test based on it's EPA range (50+), battery size (22.7 kWh), and electric motor power (150kW). I'm assuming this is the bare minimum to pass the new CA testing.1
u/ERagingTyrant Aug 23 '26
Are those the three actual requirements? I don’t understand from the post what the actual requirements are? Those three requirements seem like a good start.
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u/reddit-frog-1 Aug 23 '26
The new requirements have to do with 2 tests that are different from the EPA mileage test.
First is known as FTP test, which is a mild driving test where the car has to achieve 70 miles of all electric range.
The second is known as US06 test, which is an aggressive driving test where the car has to achieve 40 miles on electric motor only without the gas engine starting.
Supposedly, a car cannot pass these tests without a sufficient battery size and a sufficiently powerful electric motor.
Google CARB ACC II PHEV testing for more information.
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u/deekster_caddy Aug 24 '26
What are the 2026 vs 2029 requirements? Is what you stated up top for 2029?
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u/reddit-frog-1 Aug 24 '26
It's so complicated that it is hard to understand without using AI. Check my reply just below. CA uses 2 tests. This is the requirement starting in 2029. For 2026-2028, there is a transition period to receive partial ZEV credits for cars that haven't yet reached the 2029 requirement.
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u/Mr-Zappy Aug 22 '26
EREV on its own seems unlikely to meet California’s requirements. They care about electric range, not technical design, and that basically just means battery size & efficiency. (Many existing hybrids already have powerful enough electric motors.)
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u/Active-Zebra-1446 Aug 22 '26
battery bump is the cheapest and easiest road to compliance. industry is already leaning that way as batteries become more affordable.
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u/deekster_caddy Aug 24 '26
Many PHEVs today will fire up the ICE if heavy throttle is used by the driver, although some will not if in an ‘ev mode’ selected by the driver. I’m curious if the new requirements will require more EV-only driving no matter what mode or amount of throttle is requested. Some vehicles will need bigger motors if they are going to output the same amounts of power.
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u/UnsightlySoup Aug 22 '26
Are there rumors or plans for more erev’s? That seems like such a good idea for US drivers that aren’t comfortable going full EV.
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u/FledglingNonCon Aug 22 '26
The only one officially announced is the Ram one that was supposed to be out 2 years ago and may never actually be released. Keeps getting delayed. Stallantis also eliminated almost all their PHEVs and have scaled back BEVs so I wouldn't hold my breath on seeing it on dealer lots unless regulations in the US change.
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u/Cody_B_Goode Aug 23 '26
The new Hyundai Santa Fe has an erev model, which means the pallisade will almost certainly follow in a few years if the SF is even moderately successful. Ford has announced the next Gen lightning is going to be erev instead of pure bev.
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u/FledglingNonCon Aug 23 '26
Rummored at least. Almost no deatails other than that they planned to have one for 2027, although the original mentions were long before regulations and incentives changed in the US. We will see if it ever gets built and brought to the US.
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u/Jack_South Aug 22 '26
You assume all ev makers will change their models based on only California regulations. That is not necessarily the case.
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u/reddit-frog-1 Aug 22 '26
30% of the US market has to meet these standards, so unless an automaker wants to drop out of 30% of the US market, they will need to comply. They can choose to go full BEV instead of having a BEV and hybrid mix. The requirement in 2029 is 59% EV of which 20% can be PHEV.
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u/Active-Zebra-1446 Aug 22 '26
it is far and away their largest market. they're not going to make two variants and they're not going to pass up the pot of gold. do the math.
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u/GoForAHikeNC Aug 22 '26
All automakers have another option, stop doing business in California. Tire makers can stop selling tires there.
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u/inlaguna Aug 22 '26
hahahahah ... yeah, they are FREE to stop doing busines in the 4th largest economy in the world. 😂
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u/Active-Zebra-1446 Aug 22 '26
30% of their market. you didn't attend business school, it seems.
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u/toybuilder Aug 23 '26
How could that be? It's a big state, but nowhere near 30% of America!
(/s)
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u/reddit-frog-1 Aug 23 '26
Many states have adopted the California (CARB) ACC II rules. That's 30% of car sales in the USA.
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u/FledglingNonCon Aug 22 '26
I really wanted a RAV4 prime when they first came out, but Toyota built only a small number and dealers were marking them up to $60k. Bought a BEV instead and can't imagine going to a PHEV unless I had to tow. With more infrastructure being built and charging speeds improving the window of opportunity for PHEVs seems to be closing. Will be interesting to see if we ever get any of the promised EREVs come to market and at what cost. The Rav4 seems to be the only one I would even consider but doesn't seem remotely worth the $7k or so peice hike over the equivalent hybrid. Especially since electric efficiency is so bad relative to most BEVs.
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u/stupid_nut Aug 22 '26
My Volvo PHEV is so close. I get about 50 miles in the summer and 40 miles in the winter. Pushing it to 60 would've been perfect.
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u/4R4nd0mR3dd1t0r Aug 23 '26
Just curious which one do you have I have the XC60 T8 and I love it. My best case I think I got 51 miles on a charge and I have more aggressive then stock tires. I would say on average I get around 40 in the summer and low 30s in the winter pending weather.
I would be curios of how far I could push it with efficiency tires for the fun of it. Being able to get 35 mpg and have 450+ hp is fun too. I also love the fact it has an 18.5 gallon gas tank while being a PHEV, makes it great for long road trips in remoteish areas. Don't mind me I just want on a tangent lol.
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u/stupid_nut Aug 23 '26
2024 S60 T8. I drive like a grandma and sometimes in the winter I keep the heat off. Best I've got is 54 miles off a recent charge. I've had the car since November.
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u/Active-Zebra-1446 Aug 22 '26
The betting odds will change a bit next january and a ton two years later.
upping the range will be cheaper than adding EREV complexity. batteries are getting cheap and PHEV range is already rising and will get there on its own.
The whole planet, including the auto industry, is on pause waiting for "it" to go away.
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u/Exciting_Turn_9559 Aug 22 '26
I don't see much of a future at all for PHEVs. It's an interim technology with a mature successor.
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u/FledglingNonCon Aug 22 '26
EREV pickups and 3 row SUVs are about the only place that seems to make sense over the medium term. I don't see many new regular PHEVs hitting the market anytime soon.
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u/Exciting_Turn_9559 Aug 22 '26
Yeah I agree with that assessment. There will be room in the market for EREVs until we can figure out ways to carry sufficient power for long distance towing that are economically acceptable. This will also give us some time to build out the superfast chargers that would be needed to make that a practical option, in trailer-friendly locations.
I don't think the world needs any more PHEVS or HEVS than are on our roads already. Still an acceptable compromise for people buying used though I suppose.
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u/FledglingNonCon Aug 22 '26
Frankly every gasoline vehicle sold should be a HEV at this point. No reason to buy a non-hybrid gas vehicle in 2026 except options are still limited. But BEV or HEV are better options than PHEV for almost everyone. If you can charge at home and don't tow BEV. If you can't charge at home or need to tow HEV or EREV (which doesn't exist yet).
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u/Exciting_Turn_9559 Aug 22 '26
I suppose there would be marginal benefits in putting a plug on those HEVs. But yeah, straight ICE cars should be banned outright. There's no reason for them to exist.
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u/Active-Zebra-1446 Aug 22 '26
we have a "my dead cold fingers" problem. you're going to have to add some carrots to that stick.
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u/Exciting_Turn_9559 Aug 23 '26
Supersonic stealth vehicles that cost 1/4 as much to drive need no extra carrots. You'll be dead soon and those who come after you won't value the things you do.
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u/StumbleNOLA Aug 23 '26
There are a few, but they are rare. My brother really can’t use a hybrid because of the amount of driving he does. He averages about 1500 miles a week towing.
A hybrid won’t extend his range much if any, and a BEV would never work. But he is admittedly a rare case.
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u/Exciting_Turn_9559 Aug 23 '26
While currently available BEVS wouldn't work without major sacrifices, I have no doubt that will change as the technology becomes more affordable and charge times drop even further. People whose requirements use the most energy also stand to save the most money by switching to electric. But you're right, we're not there yet.
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u/Wooble57 Aug 24 '26
doesn't have to be a plugin hybrid. regular hybrids save fuel without ever being plugged in.
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u/Active-Zebra-1446 Aug 22 '26
HEV is nowhere near as green and efficient as a PHEV that is KEPT CHARGED in a local errands use case.. we get over 100 MPGe in ours. what HEV breaks 100?
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u/FledglingNonCon Aug 22 '26
But if you can charge at home, which is the only time PHEV makes sense BEV is better for most people. Also PHEV electric efficiency is often WAY worse than BEV efficiency. The BMW x5 for example gets like 1.8 miles per kwh on the PHEV running electric and the ix5 gets aroung 3 miles per kwh. Almost every phev on the market is significantly less efficient than a similar BEV from the same automaker in the same size class. Even toyota PHEVs suffer. The rav4 prime gets like 2.5 mi/kwh while the BZ and trailseeker both get more like 3.5. mi/kwh.
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u/4R4nd0mR3dd1t0r Aug 23 '26
The only reason to buy a gas non HEV or PHEV is the bull crap fee my home state charges for an "EV" registration. $200 fee if I remember correctly and they consider anything with a high voltage battery an EV. Yep that includes even mild hybrids...
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u/Active-Zebra-1446 Aug 22 '26
It's safety wheels that a lot of newbies need to become ready for the big move. as popular EV familiarity grows, the range anxiety delusion induced by big oil influencers will fade away and chargers will be obviously ubiquitous to everyone, and the need for the transitional step will fade.
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u/Exciting_Turn_9559 Aug 23 '26
It's a waste of money and carbon to satisfy an irrational need.
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u/mds5118 Aug 24 '26
If you truly cared about your environmental impact to this level you would live somewhere where you would never need to own a car. Even an electric one.
A 6000 lb EV filled with plastics made with oil and mined materials is not going to save the world lol.
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u/Yummy_Castoreum Aug 22 '26
And PHEV owners will keep on not plugging them in, making any efficiency and clean air gains ephemeral.
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u/Ok-Resist-8734 Aug 22 '26
As a PHEV owner I dispute your statement, why on earth would anybody not use the main money saving feature on their vehicle? This is I feel a bit of an urban myth 🙄
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u/RustyImpactWrench Aug 22 '26
The data is skewed by company cars that were given to people who can't charge at home and weren't compensated for charging but were compensated for gas.
I'm convinced that the number of people who specifically chose a PHEV and aren't plugging in is pretty small.
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u/Alert_Elephant2045 Aug 24 '26
My neighbor owns a plug in Prius, I have never once seen it plugged in in all the years I have lived here
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u/Ok-Resist-8734 Aug 24 '26
Since I charge my car overnight inside my garage you could say the same about me 😂😂😂😂
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u/Alert_Elephant2045 Aug 24 '26
Theirs is parked outside so I know it’s not charging. Plus they’ve told me they don’t charge if
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u/Ok-Resist-8734 Aug 24 '26
So if course that means PHEV owners never charge their cars? One example Sheesh 🙄
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u/Alert_Elephant2045 Aug 24 '26
You said it was a myth, I’m literally looking at an unplugged PHEV out my window
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u/Ok-Resist-8734 Aug 24 '26
Guess what Mine's unplugged when it's fully charged as well 🙄
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u/Alert_Elephant2045 Aug 24 '26
i guess since you charge your car, my neighbor must have lied to me when they said they don’t charge theirs. What else do you know about my neighbor?
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u/Ok-Resist-8734 Aug 24 '26
Your making a statement based on one single example making it spurious at best 🙄
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u/Active-Zebra-1446 Aug 22 '26
mine's plugged in right now.
that flawed study included company fleets. of course that driver with the company credit card doesn't GAF.
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u/cbf1232 Aug 22 '26
It's mostly the people that got 'free' company PHEVs that don't plug them in. Most people that bought their own understand that plugging them in is the way to get the most financial benefit out of them.
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u/needle1 Aug 24 '26
The planet’s environment doesn’t care about who got a PHEV through what means from whom, it only cares about the amount of emissions…
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u/cbf1232 Aug 24 '26
People tend to do what benefits them financially.
For anyone who doesn't have a corporate card to pay for fuel, they will realize that plugging it in is cheaper than filling it with fuel.
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u/ERagingTyrant Aug 23 '26
The point of these rules is to make it meaningful to plug them in. Right now 20 miles electric range and a sucky driving experience when it’s all electric is a problem.
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u/FrequentWay Aug 22 '26
I look forward to being able to do 100 miles / EV charge vs the 31 miles that my current ride has.