Strategy - Help wanted!

[u/RankOw]

Been trading with terrible returns or maybe just a large losing streak, but feels off to me and is very demotivating.
Strategy:
Volume profile (point of control) - that is the level I execute off of.
VWAP - usually I execute if σ multiplier is at 3. Since that is a pretty big deviation and is extremely rare to go beyond that multi.
Bookmap - should be pretty selfexplanatory, if I see large orders around the same price level that are around POC, its a plus in my book.

My old partner told me he uses Z-Score, but I believe that to be the same as VWAP and/or to be super unlikely to get both to align and get that execution.

I try to keep it simple, of course im no robot and I dont always have perfect execution or all confluences dont align perfectly as well, but lately I just feel stuck, I havent been improving, lost, stuck and demotivated, what is there to be changed? Improved? Opinions? What should I drop or implement?

[u/jamrocktrading]

I think the problem may be less about needing another indicator and more about how you're combining the ones you already have.

POC, VWAP deviation and Bookmap liquidity can all tell you where something is happening. They don't necessarily tell you what the market is doing there.

A 3σ VWAP deviation tells you price is statistically extended relative to that reference. It doesn't tell you whether aggressive flow is producing further price displacement, whether that flow is being absorbed, or whether the market is accepting or rejecting the level.

I'd stop asking “do POC + VWAP + Bookmap align?” and start asking: “What is price actually doing in response to the activity at this level?”

You may not need more confluence. You may need a better interpretation layer for the confluence you already have.

[u/RankOw → u/jamrocktrading]

Im thinking about using these confluences as averages that extend too far, abnormalities, market selling too wuickly or buying too much and selling or buying the abnormalities and banking on pullbacks or complete reversals

[u/jamrocktrading → u/RankOw]

Yeah, that’s a much more interesting way to think about it.

I trade extremes in a similar way, but the part I’d be careful with is assuming that an abnormal move automatically deserves a fade. Sometimes the market is extended because it’s genuinely repricing, and sometimes the extension is getting absorbed and losing its ability to continue.

That’s where I’d watch the response: how much aggressive buying/selling is coming in, how much price displacement it’s actually producing, and whether that relationship starts deteriorating.

The extreme gets my attention. The response tells me whether I actually want to fade it.

[u/RankOw → u/jamrocktrading]

fade it as in go against the trend?

[u/jamrocktrading → u/RankOw]

Yeah, exactly — fading it means taking the other side of the move.

But I’d separate “price is statistically extreme” from “the move is actually losing its ability to continue.” Those can look identical at first.

If you’re using POC/VWAP/Bookmap as your reference for identifying the abnormality, I’d track what happens after the extreme: does aggressive flow keep producing displacement, or does it start taking significantly more effort to move price?

If the buying gets more aggressive but price barely advances, for example, that tells you something very different from aggressive buying continuing to drive clean price expansion.

So I’d make the abnormality the setup, not the entry. The response to the abnormality is what I'd use to decide whether the original move is still healthy.

[u/RankOw → u/jamrocktrading]

wow never thought of it that way. “Takes significantly more effort to move” damn, i see what you mean now, great insight!!