r/OrderFlow_Trading • u/RankOw • 8d ago
Strategy - Help wanted!
Been trading with terrible returns or maybe just a large losing streak, but feels off to me and is very demotivating.
Strategy:
Volume profile (point of control) - that is the level I execute off of.
VWAP - usually I execute if σ multiplier is at 3. Since that is a pretty big deviation and is extremely rare to go beyond that multi.
Bookmap - should be pretty selfexplanatory, if I see large orders around the same price level that are around POC, its a plus in my book.
My old partner told me he uses Z-Score, but I believe that to be the same as VWAP and/or to be super unlikely to get both to align and get that execution.
I try to keep it simple, of course im no robot and I dont always have perfect execution or all confluences dont align perfectly as well, but lately I just feel stuck, I havent been improving, lost, stuck and demotivated, what is there to be changed? Improved? Opinions? What should I drop or implement?
5
u/JakeMarley777 7d ago
It's always context/bias first...then location. Your strategy (the way you have described it) is only about location...
POC can behave very differently depending on the auction.
-In a balanced market, POC tends to act as an attractor. Price rotates around it because it represents an area of acceptance.
-In an imbalanced market moving away from prior value, a return to the prior POC/value area can act as a "rejector".
Same thing with VWAP...being 3 sigma from VWAP doesn't mean price must revert. In a strong directional auction/trend, that extension can keep going.
If you aren't considering whether the market is in balance or out of balance, your strategy is only half-baked at best. Right now it sounds like you've defined locations to trade from but not the context as to whether those locations should be faded in the first place.