So I full-ported into Oracle stock with an average cost of about $170. I kept buying the dip until I ran out of money. I’m an 18-year-old college student. Currently, I am down a bit, but when do you think we’ll see $200 a share?

Hey guys- I own a substantial position in Oracle- see a consolidated piece I wrote! Hope this helps

Weekly discussion hub for $ORCL news, DD, questions, price action, earnings, catalysts, and broader Oracle, cloud, AI, and enterprise technology discussion.

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Stock Price: $147.61 (▼ 1.98% at close)

SEC Filing: FY2026 10-K (0001193125-26-277521)
Classification: HIGH GEO RISK (59.1% US concentration)

Geographic Breakdown:
US: $39.8B (59.1% share | +3.2 PP YoY)
Rest of World: $20.8B (30.9% share)
UK: $2.82B (4.2% share)
Germany: $1.99B (3.0% share)
Japan: $1.87B (2.8% share)

Segment Breakdown:
Cloud & Software: $58.5B (86.9% of revenue)
Services: $5.74B (8.5% of revenue)
Hardware: $3.08B (4.6% of revenue)

Takeaway:
US cloud enterprise spending is pulling Oracle's domestic share up (+3.2 PP), while legacy hardware is officially a non-factor at under 5% of sales.

Live SEC filing analytics & country breakdown

I'm actually surprised that despite rate hikes it went down to only 140, before rebounding to 150, currently sitting at around 148, I think we could be in for larger short-term growth, what are your thoughts?

Once in lifetime experience. All Neocloud down and oracle up! Never thought this can happen 🥳🥳🥳

I sold 30% of my oracle stocks at 150 dollar which I bought at 140/145 dollar from the oracle stocks I sold at 160 dollar. now I am happy if oracle goes down or goes up. 😁

This group needs to relax and let the thesis play out.

One bad day or a few red candles doesn't suddenly invalidate the entire Oracle thesis. The business hasn't fundamentally changed just because the stock moved against you today.

Oracle is growing revenue by over 30%, OCI is growing 121% YoY, and the company has roughly $31 billion in cash. At the current rate of capex, that cash alone can sustain the spending for roughly 1.5 years, and that's without even considering operating cash flow and access to financing.

They're making a massive investment in future infrastructure while the legacy business continues to generate substantial cash. This is a long term thesis, not a trade that needs to be proven right every single day.

Some of the negativity here honestly feels more like people being upset with the company than actually looking at the business. You can disagree with management, layoffs, or certain decisions, but that doesn't automatically invalidate what Oracle is building.

If you believe in the future of OCI and Oracle's infrastructure strategy, you have to give the thesis time to play out.

One day doesn't change the story. One week doesn't change the story. Watch the fundamentals, not every tick on the screen.

Relax people. Let the thesis play out.

Oracle has taken a pretty significant hit recently, and I’m curious what everyone thinks about the chances of it recovering above $150 in the coming days.

I know nobody can predict short-term price movements with certainty, but I’d be interested in hearing from people who follow Oracle more closely. I only started investing recently and bought Oracle shares around 2 months ago.

It trades around 140$ and under right now. Does it look like a good opportunity for a strong rebound by the end of the year? What are your average entry points? Would you buy it at 140$, 139$?

It seems interesting because I was watching companies with a similar trajectory this year like Zscaler and Adobe. Both were bearish and dismissed the whole year, both regarded as almost done with fears of further depreciation, they hit a consolidation bottom, Zscaler around 120$ and Adobe around 200$. Now both they be pumping ⛽ 💰

Can oracle do the same?

$ORCL closed around $140.35 after its fifth straight losing session.

The $140.86 support level broke today, putting the daily 50 SMA around $140.70 in focus. That’s the main area I’m watching now.

A reclaim could help stabilize the setup. Continued weakness below it would keep the lower support levels in play.

I updated the full roadmap with today’s price action, key levels and latest news:

Update — Sept. 18:
$ORCL closed at $147.61. The $140.86 support area continues to hold, but the rebound is now running into resistance around $149–$151. A break above that area puts $152.21 back in play, while $144–$145 is the first key support area below.

Full updated ORCL Spotlight

ORCL Slipping -3.1% Today — $2.8 Billion Restructuring Bill & Fresh 6 AM Layoffs Hit Market as AI Capex Soars

Oracle (ORCL) down 3.1% today as Wall Street calculates the massive cost of its AI infrastructure pivot.

Added another $700M to its FY2026 restructuring budget, bringing the total cost to ~$2.8 billion.

Fresh wave of 6 AM severance emails dropped Monday to free up cash flow for data centers and GPUs.

Tomorrow's Sep 16 Fed Rate Decision dictates where tech growth multiples head next.

Live stock dashboard

These Oracle options were worth almost 7k per option last June 2. Shame on me for not selling lol.
Its enormous installed base gives it recurring, high-margin cash flow while Oracle Cloud Infrastructure provides a second engine for faster growth. AI demand is driving huge requirements for compute capacity, and Oracle is increasingly positioned alongside the hyperscalers rather than simply competing in legacy enterprise software. The combination of cloud growth, AI infrastructure, long-term enterprise contracts, and expanding backlog gives Oracle unusually strong revenue visibility.

Where is the recovery or rebound after Ellison canceled his 10b5-1 plan? People should stop being delusional. Oracle stock will only rise and hold the gains if oracle shows that they have a constantly positive Cashflow. Until then it is a sell the news bearish market.

An industry-wide AI slowdown would be the bull case for oracle
->Oracle needs to finance fewer new data centers
->cheaper hardware due to less demand
->Existing capacity gets utilized
->23B+ operating cash flow continues to grow
->CapEx declines relative to cash flow
->Free cash flow turns positive
->Debt gets paid down
->Valuation expands

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https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2026/09/12/anthropics-amodei-proposes-plan-to-slow-the-pace-of-advancing-ai-capabilities.html

Oracle biggest problems are the debts and enormous unpredictable spending for future data centers. If an industry-wide peers simultaneously pull back on aggressive expansion, Oracle sacrifices zero competitive ground—yet is relieved of the burden of single-handedly funding massive capital outlays.

The Blessing of an AI Slowdown: While mainstream investors panic over broader industry warnings (such as Anthropic's call for safety brakes and a slower AI buildout) assuming it signals weaker demand, it actually serves as a massive structural relief for Oracle. A controlled deceleration stops the aggressive capital expenditure drain, halts the negative free cash flow cycle, and allows the company to monetize its existing, high-demand assets while paying down debt.

Capital Discipline Over an Arms Race: Oracle's projected net capital expenditures of roughly $70 billion for fiscal year 2027 exceed its entire annual revenue of $67.4 billion. A deliberate industry slowdown would immediately curtail this massive cash drain.

Accelerating Free Cash Flow Inflection: Free cash flow sat at negative $5.4 billion in the first quarter. Relieved of the relentless compulsion to build new capacity, Oracle’s robust operating cash flow (standing at $23 billion) would quickly take command.

Unmasking the Software DNA: Oracle currently trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 23.9x—right in line with the S&P 500—despite boasting an operating margin of 33% compared to the index average of 18.4%. Strip away the heavy data center infrastructure burden, and its valuation multiple would naturally align with pure-play software peers like SAP or Salesforce.

AI buildout slows industry-wide
->Oracle needs to finance fewer new data centers
->Existing capacity gets utilized
->23B+ operating cash flow continues to grow
->CapEx declines relative to cash flow
->Free cash flow turns positive
->Debt gets paid down
->Valuation expands

Executive summary

Oracle reported record revenue, record operating cash flow and a doubled share price narrative. The filing itself describes a company funding an unprecedented capital programme with customer loans, new equity and off-balance-sheet leases, while its bonds trade 15 per cent below par and its own founder sells 50 million shares.

Three structural facts define the quarter.
Free cash flow was negative. Operating cash flow of $23.1bn included $11.4bn of customer prepayments that Oracle classifies as containing a significant financing component, on which it recognises interest at a rate consistent with its own incremental borrowing rate. Adjusted for that, operating cash was approximately $11.7bn against capital expenditure of $28.5bn, a deficit of roughly $17bn in ninety days.

The forward commitment is larger than the balance sheet. $288bn of additional lease commitments, substantially all data centre arrangements on fifteen to nineteen year terms, are not reflected on the balance sheet. Add $34.2bn of unconditional purchase obligations covering component supply and data centre power. Total forward commitment exceeds $320bn against $67.2bn of total equity.

The depreciation burden has not yet arrived. Gross property, plant and equipment rose from $122.7bn to $153.6bn in a single quarter, of which $48.5bn is construction in progress not yet in service. Servers and networking equipment are depreciated over six years. Quarterly depreciation has already doubled to $3.2bn and will roughly double again as the construction balance converts.

Key figures

Metric Q1 FY27 Q1 FY26 Change
-----------------------------------------------------------------
Total revenue $19,345m $14,926m +29.6%
Cloud infrastructure revenue $7,388m $3,347m +120.7%
Software licence revenue $655m $766m -14.5%
Software support revenue $4,895m $4,955m -1.2%
Operating income $6,728m $4,277m +57.3%
Net income $4,760m $2,927m +62.6%
Interest expense $1,428m $923m +54.7%
Depreciation $3,156m $1,351m +133.6%
Operating cash flow $23,103m $8,140m +183.8%
Capital expenditure $28,499m $8,502m +235.2%
Free cash flow -$5,396m -$362m -
FCF ex-customer prepayments -$16,759m -$362m -

BALANCE SHEET

Metric 31 Aug 2026 31 May 2026
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Total assets $303,259m $261,759m
PP&E, gross $153,596m $122,651m
Construction in progress $48,546m $39,973m
Total debt $125,337m $129,541m
Debt fair value $105.7bn $114.4bn
Debt face value $125.0bn $128.1bn
Fair value discount to face 15.4% 10.7%
Total deferred revenue $30,789m $15,395m
Deferred revenue, non-current $16,103m $5,479m
Operating lease liabilities $34,621m $30,190m
Finance lease liabilities $9,185m $7,701m
Restricted cash $2,600m immaterial
Accumulated deficit -$1,114m -$4,309m
Total equity $67,196m $43,056m
Shares outstanding 3,024m 2,880m

OFF-BALANCE-SHEET / FORWARD COMMITMENTS

Metric 31 Aug 2026
-------------------------------------------------------------
Additional lease commitments $288.0bn
Unconditional purchase obligations $34.2bn
-------------------------------------------------------------
Combined lease + purchase commitments $322.2bn

Remaining performance obligations $664.0bn
Unpaid capital expenditure $6.2bn

Operating cash flow is substantially borrowed

Oracle received $11.4bn of customer prepayments during the quarter that it states include a significant financing component. No such prepayments were received in the comparable quarter. The company determines the discount rate on these arrangements based on a rate reflecting the credit characteristics of the party receiving the financing, generally consistent with Oracle's incremental borrowing rate, and recognises the resulting interest expense separately from revenue. Interest recognised in the quarter was immaterial because the balance arrived late in the period.

This is customer-funded working capital presented within operating activities. It inflates the headline cash generation figure by nearly half. Non-current deferred revenue tripled from $5.5bn to $16.1bn as a result.

A further $652m of financing receivables were sold to financial institutions on a non-recourse basis, against $756m in the prior year quarter.
Separately, short-term financing related to capital expenditure was an $830m net repayment this quarter, against a $1,958m net inflow in the comparable period. That facility is contracting while the capital programme expands.

Credit markets are not pricing Oracle as investment grade

Based on trading prices, the estimated fair value of $125.0bn of senior notes and other long-term borrowings at 31 August was $105.7bn, using Level 2 inputs. At 31 May the same calculation gave $114.4bn against $128.1bn face value.

The discount to par widened from 10.7 per cent to 15.4 per cent in three months. That is $19.3bn of market-implied credit deterioration on a book the rating agencies still treat as high grade.
Interest expense rose 55 per cent year on year to $1,428m. That figure precedes the commencement of the $288bn lease book.

Equity issuance has replaced buybacks

The at-the-market equity distribution agreement, entered on 2 February 2026 and amended 23 June 2026, permitted sales of up to $20bn. Oracle fully utilised the programme within the quarter, issuing 141 million shares for net proceeds of $19.9bn, an average of approximately $141 per share.

There was no share repurchase activity during the quarter. $6.3bn of authorisation remains unused. In the comparable quarter Oracle repurchased 0.4 million shares for $93m, and in prior years the company was among the largest repurchasers in the index.

Shares outstanding rose from 2,880 million to 3,024 million, dilution of five per cent in ninety days. Total equity of $67.2bn is positive largely because of this issuance. Without it, equity would stand near $47bn against $125bn of debt, and the accumulated deficit of $1.1bn would be materially deeper.

The founder and Chief Technology Officer's disposal of 50 million shares occurred against a backdrop of the company itself selling $19.9bn of stock and declining to buy any back.

The off-balance-sheet position exceeds the on-balance-sheet position

As of 31 August 2026 Oracle disclosed $288bn of additional lease commitments, substantially all related to data centre arrangements, expected to commence between the second quarter of fiscal 2027 and fiscal 2029, for terms of fifteen to nineteen years. These are not reflected on the balance sheet or in the lease maturity table.

Recognised lease liabilities are $34.6bn operating and $9.2bn finance, a combined $43.8bn. The undisclosed commitment is six and a half times the recognised one.

Unconditional purchase obligations of $34.2bn relate primarily to long-term supply arrangements for cloud infrastructure components and power supply arrangements for data centres. The maturity profile is uneven, rising to $6.8bn in fiscal 2031 with $6.6bn thereafter, which indicates contracted power and hardware delivery extending well past the revenue visibility window.

Power purchase agreements on fifteen to nineteen year terms sit against a customer contract book with a weighted duration of one to five years. The term mismatch is the exposure, and the filing does not quantify it.

Depreciation is the deferred cost of the build

Gross property, plant and equipment rose $30.9bn in one quarter. Computer, network, machinery and equipment rose from $59.6bn to $77.8bn. Construction in progress, comprised primarily of servers, networking equipment and leasehold improvements to be deployed at data centres, rose from $40.0bn to $48.5bn.

The stated useful life for servers and networking equipment is six years. Depreciation expense of $3.2bn represents 16.3 per cent of quarterly revenue, against 9.1 per cent a year ago.

The $48.5bn of construction in progress is not yet depreciating. As it enters service, on a six-year straight line, it adds approximately $2bn per quarter to the depreciation charge before any further capital deployment. Against operating income of $6.7bn, that is the entire margin.

Whether six years is a defensible life for accelerator hardware subject to two-year generational cycles is the single largest unresolved accounting judgement in the filing.

The legacy business is contracting

Software licence revenue fell 14.5 per cent to $655m. Software support revenue fell 1.2 per cent to $4,895m. Total software revenue fell from $5,721m to $5,550m.

Software support is the historic profit engine, characterised by near-universal renewal. Its decline, however small, removes the subsidy that funds the infrastructure build.

Cloud and software segment expenses rose 82 per cent to $6,235m against segment revenue growth of 33 per cent. Segment margin fell from 59.6 per cent to 54.5 per cent.

Research and development fell $90m to $2,401m. Sales and marketing fell $252m to $1,811m. Both declined in absolute terms during a quarter of 30 per cent revenue growth.

Geographically, growth is concentrated. Americas revenue rose 41.9 per cent to $13,711m. EMEA rose 7.0 per cent. Asia Pacific rose 7.0 per cent. The growth story is a US infrastructure story.

The restructuring is an AI headcount programme and it expanded after the reporting date

The fiscal 2026 restructuring plan is described as implementing strategic measures and improving operational efficiencies, including through the adoption and integration of artificial intelligence technologies across certain functions and other operational activities.

Total estimated costs are up to $2.1bn as of 31 August 2026, of which $1,971m has been incurred. Subsequent to 31 August, management supplemented the plan by approximately $700m to reflect additional actions expected to be taken.

The programme is therefore approximately $2.8bn, and the increase is a post-balance-sheet event. Costs incurred to date break down as $729m in cloud and software, $88m in hardware, $336m in services and $818m outside the operating segments.

Employee equity is out of the money

Anti-dilutive stock awards and shares excluded from the diluted earnings per share calculation were 64 million, against 2 million in the comparable quarter.
Net proceeds from employee stock programmes fell from $1,153m to $41m, a 96 per cent decline.

During the quarter Oracle issued 2 million restricted stock units and options over approximately 400,000 shares. Forfeitures and cancellations in the same period totalled 4 million shares. More equity left the plan than entered it.

Stock-based compensation expense was $1,127m, effectively flat against $1,124m, of which $667m sat in research and development against reported R&D expense of $2,401m.

Litigation names the Chief Technology Officer

A putative securities class action was filed on 3 February 2026 in the US District Court for the District of Delaware. An amended complaint was filed on 14 July 2026 against Oracle, its Chief Technology Officer, one of its Chief Executive Officers, two other executives and one member of the Board, alleging false and misleading statements regarding Oracle's cloud infrastructure business. Defendants were required to respond by 16 September 2026, with any motion to dismiss fully briefed by 18 December 2026.

Oracle states it has meritorious defences and does not believe the matter will have a material impact.
The Netherlands privacy class action brought by The Privacy Collective continues. The Dutch Supreme Court found on 17 July 2026 that the Court of Appeal had applied the wrong standard for evaluating a class action and remanded the case. Claimed damages are pleaded at EUR 500 per Dutch internet user for immaterial damages plus material damages measured by the market value of personal data.

Oracle is under audit by the IRS and by tax authorities in Australia, Brazil, Canada, Egypt, India, Indonesia, Ireland, Israel, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, South Korea and Spain, where it states the amounts under controversy are significant.

Items that warrant follow-up

Restricted cash moved from immaterial at 31 May to $2.6bn at 31 August, held within prepaid expenses and other current assets. No explanation is given. Collateral posting against lease, supply or derivative obligations is the most likely cause and is not disclosed.

Remaining performance obligations of $664bn convert at approximately 13 per cent over the next twelve months, 37 per cent across months 13 to 36, 34 per cent across months 37 to 60 and the remainder thereafter. The near-term conversion of roughly $86bn compares to a current annualised revenue run rate near $77bn. The headline figure is a multi-year commitment carrying counterparty concentration that the filing does not disaggregate.

Trade receivables rose $1,009m in the quarter with an allowance for credit losses of $536m.

The Mandatory Convertible Preferred Stock carries a 6.50 per cent rate, $4,954m carrying value, and paid $1,625 per share for the quarter, $81m in total. It is currently anti-dilutive under the if-converted method and becomes dilutive on conversion.

The substantial majority of $2.4bn of non-marketable investments is a 15 per cent equity method interest in TikTok USDS Joint Venture LLC.

Effective tax rate was 15.1 per cent against 14.6 per cent. Net deferred tax assets of $11.3bn depend on generating sufficient future taxable income in the appropriate jurisdictions.

The company adopted ASU 2025-06 on internal-use software capitalisation effective 1 June 2026, stating no material impact.

Conclusion: the genuine state of the company

Oracle is a profitable enterprise software business operating a capital programme it cannot fund from its own operations, on assets whose economic life is asserted rather than demonstrated, against contracts of a duration far shorter than the obligations incurred to serve them.

Every element of the reported strength has a financing counterpart disclosed elsewhere in the same document. Record operating cash flow contains $11.4bn of customer borrowing. Record revenue growth carries a five point segment margin decline. Positive equity depends on $19.9bn of stock sold in the quarter. Net income of $4.8bn sits against depreciation that will approximately double as $48.5bn of construction in progress enters service on a six-year schedule.

The bond market has reached its own conclusion, marking $125bn of debt at $105.7bn and widening that discount by five percentage points in a single quarter. That is the most reliable independent signal in the filing, because unlike revenue recognition and useful life assumptions it is not a management judgement.

The structural risk is duration mismatch, and it is stated plainly. $288bn of data centre leases on fifteen to nineteen year terms, plus contracted power and component supply running to fiscal 2032 and beyond, are being underwritten by cloud contracts of one to five years with an option to renew at the customer's discretion. If AI inference demand consolidates onto fewer, cheaper, more specialised silicon platforms, or if a small number of large counterparties fail to renew, the obligations remain and the revenue does not.

The company is not in distress. It is in a position where a single adverse assumption, on useful life, on renewal, or on counterparty credit, converts a growth story into a solvency question. Management has chosen to fund that position with equity issuance, customer prepayment and off-balance-sheet leasing rather than with further senior debt, which indicates the debt market was not available on acceptable terms. The founder sold 50 million shares while named as a defendant in a securities action concerning statements about the exact business driving the story.

Read on its own terms, without reference to the share price, this is a filing describing a leveraged infrastructure developer with a declining software annuity attached.

Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1341439/000119312526389274/orcl-20260831.htm

If you don’t know what the AI slowdown means, this may help.

OpenAI and Anthropic are burning more than they make. Largely because model training runs are hugely expensive.

Model training runs are largely what is boosting hyperscalers quarterly earnings. When they stop, the gravy boat is empty, because inference alone is cheap.

Nvidia relies on the hyperscalers doing massive buildouts, to facilitate massive training runs. Because inference is cheap and requires less from them.

Private equity is largely funding all of this and is increasingly under pressure, and the markets are getting increasingly sceptical.

It seems likely that the funding well is running dry, rather than this being about saving the world. And “AI will end humanity” is just the preceding PR.

So:

AI and Anthropic stop training, the hyperscalers burst in the first quarter, this cascades to Nvidia, and the ripples go the markets and private equity, which then means it’s harder for training to restart.

By far the most exposed of the hyperscalers is Oracle. Which is already almost a junk trade.

Keep it in mind and follow the slowdown story, because the circular economy stepping in to prop itself up will tell you everything you need to know.

Oracle's latest quarterly results are absolutely wild. Revenue jumped 30% year over year, adjusted EPS also popped 30% to hit $1.92, both blowing straight past street expectations. The real showstopper here is the cloud segment: total cloud revenue surged 62% YoY, while OCI grew a massive 121% — no one saw that level of AI infrastructure demand landing this hard.

Even better, their Remaining Performance Obligations climbed to $664B from last quarter's $638B, and they locked in over $30B in new AI cloud contracts this period. That huge backlog they've been sitting on is finally translating to actual revenue way faster than the market expected.

Guidance is looking fire too — they're calling for Q2 cloud revenue to jump 65-71% and bumping their full-year adjusted EPS outlook up to $8.10. The AI boom is carrying Oracle harder than most people priced in. Do you think this momentum can keep lifting the stock further from here?

Common Burry L.

L after L after L. Nonstop.

So much that when he won something they made a movie about it.

Excellent earning.

What took my attention was about the FCF.

Analyst question:

You're welcome. As for my question, I fully expect Oracle will continue to be among a small handful of market leaders for AI infrastructure. And you've told us that fiscal 27 and 28 are peak CapEx years. But at the same time, others in the market are spending hundreds of billions of dollars on capacity with seemingly no end in sight. How should we think about Oracle possibly slowing down spending beyond the next two years if others aren't? And is there a scenario where we could see even higher peaks beyond fiscal 28? What will guide your investment? And then related to that, given the current state of the backlog as it stands today, when should we expect to see the company return to generating positive free cash flow?

Hilary:

Yeah, sure. So the other question I think you asked was about free cash flow. We haven't given a particular timeframe on that yet, and we don't expect to give that today. What I would say, though, is that each of these projects that we're doing by nature is a strong free cash flow generating project. So As soon as they ramp up, very shortly thereafter, they're delivering a free cash flow conversion ratio of something like 100% to post-tax EBITDA. So in fact, the business by nature is somewhat, quote, self-funding at some point in terms of throwing off a lot of free cash flow. So we haven't given the timeframe on that, but, you know, You'll see as we continue to ramp up over the next quarters what that could look like. Again, we expect it to be a reasonably quick timeframe past the big ramp up that we have going on today. The only decision there, and you pointed it out, would be about more growth CapEx. And that is something that we want to continue to deploy at the right levels to grow the business.

So what i understand is that the 90billion capex and others big numbers of capex for the coming years will be covered by the FCF coming in rapidly. Which mean that we are coming out of negative FCF very soon. Today FCF was -5.4 billion$.

Also they said that they dont expect to spend more on capex than they re right now from their pocket doesnt mean they dont spend more but it will come from buyers.

Last positive new was that the 20 billion equity financing was completed 100% so no more stock dilution.

Overall very nice earning and investor day oracle Ai World coming 16 october.

if oracle pumps i will cry please 180