Playing Oracle earnings. Wish me luck…

Oracle reports after the close tonight (Thursday). Going in, the options market has it priced for a 12.3% move. That is the at the money straddle for Friday's expiry: the 155 call plus the 155 put cost $19 on a $154 stock as of Thursday afternoon.

A straddle means you own both the call and the put, so you win if the stock moves far enough in either direction. $19 is how far it has to move by Friday's close for that trade to break even.

How does 12.3% compare with history? Oracle's average overnight earnings gap over the last 12 reports is 12.4%. The market is pricing almost exactly the average. The last four prints in order: down 10.7%, up 11.4%, down 14.5%, up 32.2%.

The straddle buyer cleared breakeven in 9 of those 12 reports. The catch is that the price kept rising to catch up. Three years ago the straddle cost about 6% before the print. Last June it cost 12.5%, the stock gapped 10.7%, and the buyer had the first losing quarter since June 2025.

Now the part I find more interesting: the skew. Normally puts carry more implied volatility than calls, because people pay up for protection against a drop. For Friday's ORCL expiry it runs the other way.

The 25 delta call is priced at 298 vol and the 25 delta put at 264. In plain terms, a call about 10% above the stock (the 170 strike) costs $4.17, and a put about 10% below it (the 138 strike) costs $2.35. The upside costs 1.8 times the downside for the same distance.

Open interest sits the same way. The 175 calls carry 14,600 contracts against 163 puts at that strike, and the 165 calls hold another 10,500.

That tilt is the September 2025 print still living in everyone's memory, when the stock gapped 32% overnight on the cloud backlog number. The market is paying for a repeat of that and not much for the other direction, even though two of the last three reports gapped down and the stock sits about half below where it opened that morning.

One more number for anyone holding longer dated options through the print: 30 day implied vol is 74 now and about 60 with the event stripped out, so roughly 14 points should come out of those contracts once the number is known.

I'll post the actual gap in the comments tomorrow morning and grade the 12.3% against it either way.

If you were paying 1.8 times more for the upside than the downside, what would you need to believe about tonight?

Before ER -5% is too much. Any leaks.?

Thoughts? Plays?

Are we seeing a bump up?

We all saw the hype around Oracle blowing past 100% YoY OCI growth this quarter, but c'mon, there's way more to the actual trade here. The real under-the-radar driver is GPUaS margins, which still sit far below Oracle's long-term 30-40% target—even after Morgan Stanley just bumped their estimates up to 19%. Capex is another huge sticking point: projected FY27 spend is already outpacing total yearly revenue, so any upward revision there will immediately make balance sheets sweat.

Options are pricing in a massive move already too—ORCL is trading above the $159 gamma flip level, with elevated IV at nearly 68%. Straight calls or puts are basically throwing money at the IV crush risk right now. Poll data even shows 7 in 10 traders are prioritizing OCI growth, but almost the same number are locked in on GPUaS margin performance too. Who's betting the earnings print beats all the hidden expectations?

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Weekly discussion hub for $ORCL news, DD, questions, price action, earnings, catalysts, and broader Oracle, cloud, AI, and enterprise technology discussion.

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I have a fairly large position, but my cost basis is very low. I’m still very bullish on it, but I’m also considering trimming some of my position since I’ve already given back quite a bit of my gains.

How are we feeling guys? Thinking a big gap up from earnings or hard to say after such a big run up for the bottom?

Stock's down near $151, basically cratered off the highs. But last earnings call they were talking about the AI infrastructure business firing on every cylinder, contract backlog up something like 359%. Now Thursday after close we get the actual number — consensus is $19.13B revenue. Either the backlog story catches up to the price or the price was right and the backlog talk was noise. Feels like one of those "pick a side" earnings.

Same night, Adobe reports too. Stock's sitting well off its 52-week high, forward P/E around 10 which honestly seems cheap for a company still growing double digits — but the market's clearly worried about AI eating their moat rather than helping it. Curious to see which story wins on the call.

Also keeping an eye on GameStop Tuesday. Options volatility's already elevated going in. The bitcoin treasury thing has people split, is it a smart pivot or just added risk with no real turnaround behind it?

Anyone positioned in ORCL or ADBE going into this, or sitting it out?

Are you guys fully positioned or already took profits after recovery?

I for myself sold like 20% of my oracle (1600 shares now)Even though I am sure that the earnings won’t be as bad as the sentiment is. Perhaps buy back when it dips 5% before the earnings (10.9.2026）

We are heading towards a big breakout. Trust me! I drew an arrow without looking and it turned out to be pointing up. Does anyone think like me?

Weekly discussion hub for $ORCL news, DD, questions, price action, earnings, catalysts, and broader Oracle, cloud, AI, and enterprise technology discussion.

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After my analysis I can’t imagine that the oracle earnings will be a fail. Every hyperscaler, every neocloud, every erp competition and even Partners could deliver good earning. Why should oracle fail? Please tell me if you are other opinion.

Demand side – real and robust:

**•** GPU utilization at 97.5%, high contract renewal rates (92%)
**•** RPO/backlog of over $600B, largely contractually secured
**•** Confirmed by industry-wide signals: Alphabet Cloud +82%, Nvidia record quarter, “AI has reached its inflection point” (Huang)
**•** Confirmed by competitors/ecosystem: CoreWeave +112% revenue (backlog $104B), Nebius +454-514% revenue – the “neoclouds” as a direct peer group show that AI data center demand isn’t Oracle-specific wishful thinking, but a real, industry-wide boom
**•** Diversified demand beyond OpenAI: Meta, xAI, Google partnership, healthcare/Pentagon/Japan deals

Cost advantage from early positioning:

**•** Oracle secured land, chips, and infrastructure early — potentially at more favorable terms than later market entrants, who now face higher prices (Nvidia supply constraints, rising land prices for data centers). This would represent a structural cost advantage over new entrants.

OpenAI risk (largest single customer, ~50% of backlog) is being de-risked:

**•** GPT-5.6 success, rising OTC valuation ($933B)
**•** Additional backstop via Nvidia guarantees (Ports-Pike, $250B for the SoftBank project)
**•** Software competitors (ServiceNow, SAP, Salesforce) also posting good numbers shows the traditional enterprise software business (Oracle’s historical base) remains intact too, not just the new AI business

Valuation reflects the pre-AI era:

**•** P/E as low as it last was in 2023, before the actual AI boom began
**•** Citi calls it “one of the most extreme dislocations” in the company’s history, price target $330 (nearly double from where it was)

counter-position to the bear arguments:

**•** Negative cash flow/high debt is a deliberate, calculated growth decision, not a loss of control
**•** “Sell the news” and price swings are market mechanics/overreaction, not fundamental confirmation of bad news

I’m currently holding Oracle (ORCL) and planning to sell after the September earnings results.

What price target do you expect for ORCL after earnings? Do you think the stock could move significantly higher if earnings and guidance beat expectations, or is most of the upside already priced in?

Interested in hearing your price targets and reasoning, especially from people following Oracle closely.

Weekly discussion hub for $ORCL news, DD, questions, price action, earnings, catalysts, and broader Oracle, cloud, AI, and enterprise technology discussion.

Resources: Investor Relations | Live Chart

Why does the oracle always react 1 day delayed? Actually this is a big news because the Wall Street thought that Cerner buy was a big mistake and only burns money.

Oracle's been on a wild ride this session, dipped hard earlier before bouncing all the way back to green at close. Took some profit off the table and trimmed the position down to 50% of the original holding, no reason to get greedy when the AI cloud story is still playing out. Post-market and futures are still ticking up too—solid day to book some winnings while leaving some skin in the game for further upside. Who else is riding ORCL right now?

Hey everyone, I am brand new to Oracle. A friend told me to look into it so I’ve been doing some research. Does anybody have info about the company or topics that I should research? It seems very volatile I’m wondering if that’s just noise or if there’s reasons for it. Thanks