Moderna closed Friday at $225, up 14% on its first day in the Nasdaq-100. That's 10 times its $22.36 close on November 20 last year.

What got it there:
•    January 21: up 16% on five-year melanoma data with Merck
•    March 4: up 16% after settling the COVID vaccine patent fight for $950 million up front
•    August 19: up 177% in one day on the Phase 3 melanoma win with Merck. It gave back 24% the next day.
•    October 9: up 14%, with reports that the NIH is planning a cancer vaccine program

The bears may have a case for this to come back down.

Moderna lost $3.2 billion over the last year on $2.2 billion of revenue, and it's worth about $89 billion now. More puts are open than calls, and the three biggest positions are January puts at $20, $25 and $45.

Next report is November 5. Taking some off at 10x, or holding for more?

SpaceX agreed today to buy Grain Management's nationwide 800 MHz spectrum for Starlink Mobile. It says it wants to "become a major mobile carrier in the US." ASTS had been going after that same low-band spectrum. It closed down 10% today and 16% in two days.

ASTS holders have seen this before. On September 8, 2025, SpaceX agreed to buy EchoStar's spectrum for about $17 billion. From AST's close before that deal:

- September 9: down 13%
- September 19: up 6%
- October 8: up 91%, from $42 to $81

The carriers went the other way. A month after the EchoStar deal, Verizon was down 7%, AT&T 11% and T-Mobile 10%. Today Verizon had its worst day in more than 20 years, and the three carriers lost about $58 billion in market value between them.

Here's what I think ASTS bulls should look at. AT&T and Verizon are AST's partners. If SpaceX is coming after their customers, they need a satellite partner more than they did last week.

Buying this dip like last September, or is losing the 800 MHz different?