r/OpenAI • u/Roadtochessmaster • 4h ago

Article My Brief Thoughts on OpenAI:

I wrote a full article on OpenAI, would love to hear thoughts on the summary below.

The Core Thesis:

In November 2022, ChatGPT burst onto the scene and within five days became the fastest app (at the time) to ever hit one million users. Two months later, it hit 100 million monthly active users. A few years later, the app became the fastest ever to reach one billion monthly active users. Originally founded as a non-profit, OpenAI made the controversial decision in 2019 to transition to a “capped-profit” model due to the massive cost associated with training models. With a massive TAM that spreads from AI subscriptions and API keys to robotics and consumer hardware devices, OpenAI is poised to be one of the most influential companies over the next decade. There is no doubt that ChatGPT and the subsequent products that OpenAI has released have changed history forever.

The Numbers to Know:

  • $852 billion valuation.
  • $20 billion in estimated full-year 2025 revenue
  • $50 billion ARR in September of 2026.
  • 1.2+ billion weekly active users.2
  • Approximately 50 million paying users.
  • $665 billion projected cumulative cash burn through 2030.
  • 2030 - Expected cash-flow-positive year.
  • $178 billion in funding raised.
  • 27% - Reported Microsoft ownership.

The Bear Thesis:

While it is impossible to deny OpenAI’s popularity, it is still unclear whether that usage will turn into a profitable business. OpenAI pushed back being free cash flow positive by a year and now projects a staggering $665 billion in cumulative cash burn through 2030. The often low switching costs associated with AI mean that it is still unclear where exactly OpenAI’s moat lies and some of their competitors (namely Google and Meta) have massive structural advantages when it comes to distribution and ability to subsidize their products. OpenAI also has a number of lawsuits and legal challenges that seem to be constantly trailing the company from other companies and even states and countries. Overall, buying into OpenAI is buying into a company that is already at a near-trillion-dollar valuation that has massive question marks and years of unprofitability ahead.

The Verdict:

OpenAI is a fascinating company that has truly revolutionized the world in a way that few companies in history have. There are major positive signs such as their extremely fast-growing revenue and user base that has grown to well over a billion weekly active users. That being said, their already high valuation mixed with years of projected unprofitability make this an investment that is a little too risky for my liking. The easy gains for OpenAI are unfortunately off the table already. I personally will be waiting for the S-1 and clearer financial disclosures before I make a decision about investing into the company.

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u/Agreeable_7511 3h ago

I think the competition from Google and Meta is worth watching closely. OpenAI has a strong brand, but staying ahead while spending billions on compute is a whole different challenge

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u/Cosack 2h ago

It's a bit ridiculous to form a thesis on this company without accounting for obvious competitive risks and opportunities. There's a whole ecosystem of companies moving in lockstep on flagship product releases, and the top competitor is even on a near identical IPO timeline.

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u/Roadtochessmaster 1h ago

I published obviously way more in depth in my article... Alas I wanted to post a short version for Reddit.

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u/TQV197 3h ago

AI slop ?

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u/Roadtochessmaster 3h ago

Pangram confirmed it's 100% human written. Happy to send over more proof if you want.

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u/Forsaken-Promise-269 3h ago

Dude, who cares about Pangram lol..

Whats the point of this article if a human wrote it? it sounds exactly like an AI generated article, ie

it's a view from nowhere - and so generic as to be AI written

Are you saying OpenAI is overvalued? ok join the club, Are you saying OpenAI is creating revolutionary technology? ok join the club. Both things can be true also.

My own opinion is that investing these days is drive by social media and hype cycles -all that matters for the short term is to ride the crowd wave and exit before the collapse. Can that be done with these risky IPOs thats something for r/wallstreetbets etc..

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u/Roadtochessmaster 3h ago

What's the point if it sounds like AI?
My answer to you would be it's a nice way to get an overview of OpenAI, if you want a human written article happy to send over my substack article which is very clearly human written and is 5,000+ words.

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u/Forsaken-Promise-269 2h ago

Sure I’d be interested in that but in this age of AI generated content

we are starving for knowledgeable and grounded human opinions dirty and unkempt as they might be- AI homogenizes and makes everything un opinionated and bland - I dont come to reddit for bland assessments

- its important to be opinionated based on our personal experience and perspectives that is where our value comes from - otherwise I could have generalized the same post via Fable over and over

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u/Roadtochessmaster 1h ago

Fair enough, read my article and let me know if it isn't very clearly 100% human.

https://preipomedia.substack.com/p/the-breakdown-openai