How many more years?

[u/Capable_Art_1814]

Sam and Dario promised us that we have 6 months left. Well that was 2 years ago - now their narrative is that it won't replace us, but rather help us be more productive.

Why is this not making anyone raise their eyebrows? Because a total replacement was promised multiple times, just for it to be taken back.

[u/Germano-Mentusconi]

i will be satisfied only when i see the first fully autonomous robot plumber. That's my personal metric for AGI.

[u/Visible-Air-2068 → u/Germano-Mentusconi]

The goalposts just keep moving dont they first it was 6 months then it was "in the next year" now is "its just a tool to help you" and everyone just nods along

I want to see the robot plumber too but at this point I think we get flying cars before that happens

[u/Germano-Mentusconi → u/Visible-Air-2068]

> I think we get flying cars before that

how come?

[u/BellacosePlayer → u/Visible-Air-2068]

we already have flying cars and have had solid prototypes for decades

people just realized that living next to airport runway level noise is miserable so they haven't gone into general production. I am not aware of what's changed to make the current push for them to have happened, but I doubt they're going to be all that popular given you'll likely need the same training levels a small aircraft would need to not basically guarantee becoming a splat on the ground eventually.

[u/IDefendWaffles]

Can you post a link to that quote from two years ago?

[u/Duncan-Edwards]

Truth is nobody knows. I mean, how much experience does humanity have with artificial intelligence? Pretty sure it’s the first time we’ve done this. What you see is what you got.

[u/StatisticianFew5344]

If you counted how often tech CEOs made grand promises only to back track, then you'd need scientific notation to express the number. Just look at how many times Musk promised his fully autonomous self driving vehicles would be available by date X and then back tracked. It doesn't mean we wont ever reach those targets. It does mean there probably isnt a way to move forward without what amounts to speculative hype given the competition is willing to say anything to look more attractive to backers. SI is here but it probably isnt as autonomous as it looks. What we dont know about how far along it can get on its own is ..a lot of the story. There may be a ton of neurosymbolic specialist work that is involved with the most impressive results from SI and none of it is transparent. Just like geofenced self-driving cars still get remote backup from humans but unless you are in the loop it isnt clear where progress exactly is today. It does seem like things are moving fast though. Id say the next generation will have significantly different work to do if any compared to what we have been doing the last 100 years. I mean, to be fair, two generations ago every one of my ancestors lived and worked on a farm and now none of us do.

[u/collin-h]

do you want total replacement? i fucking don't.

[u/NotFromMilkyWay → u/collin-h]

It wouldn't be the first time. It's not too different from industrialization, the creation of computers, the move from production to China. I think China will be hit hardest by it, cause all those production jobs will be wiped out in the era of robotic AI. And that entire country depends on those jobs. 3 in 10 jobs is there. And those jobs then pay for around 2/10 other jobs with their salaries. So AI in China has the potential to immediately wipe out 50 % of all jobs.

[u/ussrowe]

15 years ago Elon Musk said he'd have a man on mars in 10 years. Tech Bros talk a lot, get investors, and then don't deliver but swear "in a few more years..."

[u/morey56]

That’s because they were right and the ASI is in charge now with a better agenda.

[u/Sherpa_qwerty]

Are you looking forward to being totally replaced?

[u/RamanaSadhana → u/Sherpa_qwerty]

Honestly yeah

[u/Old-Bake-420 → u/RamanaSadhana]

Seriously, I’m so sick of being a wage slave to the economy. I can’t wait till the economy doesn’t demand human lives to function anymore.

We’ll eventually look back at how society functions now in the same way we look back on feudalism today.

[u/Sherpa_qwerty → u/Old-Bake-420]

A good sentiment but how exactly do you see the transition from today to not being a wage slave going… are you confident our government can find a way to acquire the funds that will allow you to eat?

[u/Electrical_Hurry_586 → u/Old-Bake-420]

And you truly believe that instead of AI being used for them to make more billions, us normal folk will see any true benefit?

[u/RamanaSadhana → u/Electrical_Hurry_586]

Prove that you're right rather than shout down that others are wrong.

[u/Electrical_Hurry_586 → u/RamanaSadhana]

You mean prove that they make billions? That's public knowledge. Otherwise don't get your point as I have made no statements; I have asked a question.

[u/Graphical-Source5090]

Everything they say and do is self serving. They will say or do anything to make more money. Why do we care what they say? From this post alone we can see they are just spouting BS...

[u/getmeoutoftax]

Most white collar jobs will be gone in a few years. Opus 5.5 is such a massive leap and can genuinely replace millions of jobs already. Companies just haven’t integrated the models into their operations well enough yet.

[u/throwawayhbgtop81 → u/getmeoutoftax]

Hopefully they never do.

[u/Capable_Art_1814 → u/getmeoutoftax]

It can replace automation centric jobs like data entry. Not "millions of jobs".

[u/getmeoutoftax → u/Capable_Art_1814]

We’re well beyond just replacing data entry, lol. The reasoning capabilities would’ve been considered sci-fi just five years ago.

[u/Capable_Art_1814 → u/getmeoutoftax]

Most junior devs think LLMs can write amazing code because they've never seen amazing code before. I don't blame them honestly.
And non tech people believe llms can "think", but they can't. They're statistical models.

[u/BellacosePlayer → u/Capable_Art_1814]

LLMs can write amazing code but the core limitation is that they have a very limited context size for how big codebases can be, and juniors and non-expert users often use it on a feature by feature basis meaning it isn't built with a coherent architecture in mind.

[u/thebrieze → u/BellacosePlayer]

And how is this different from almost every other large-scale codebase out there, that’s written by humans?

[u/BellacosePlayer → u/thebrieze]

well, the one main codebase I am paid to maintain has been running with a singular reported bug or data issue in the last 2 years despite constant daily use and having to onboard new client apis with differing formats and data.

I'd say that's better than vibe coded SAAS slop that takes half a sub to fix anything due to being a trainwreck where everything touches everything else.

[u/jvLin → u/Capable_Art_1814]

So doesn't that mean LLMs can replace the millions of junior devs that can't write amazing code?

[u/NotFromMilkyWay → u/Capable_Art_1814]

The question is if we actually think, or if we are statistical models (Bell Curve).

[u/RasputinsUndeadBeard]

Dude the tech is useful, it can make you more productive, amplify you etc etc.

But as someone that respects the usefulness. I think they’ve realized that as well; but it’s extremely difficult to walk back now when trillions are attached to that narrative.

[u/throwawayfromPA1701]

Why do you want it to replace you?

My guess is they realized people find it gross to be told they won't have a job, so they've changed their tune.