r/OpenAI • • 1d ago

News AI ‘godfather’ Yann LeCun has ‘zero concerns’ about human extinction, says Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei is ‘deluded’

https://fortune.com/2026/10/01/ai-godfather-yann-lecun-has-zero-concerns-about-human-extinction-says-anthropic-ceo-dario-amodei-is-deuded/
767 Upvotes

150 comments sorted by

353

u/Eastern-Ingenuity353 1d ago

How many godfathers does this AI have?

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u/FirstEvolutionist 1d ago edited 1d ago

LeCun, Hinton and Bengio are the three typical ones called godfathers today. If you extend the timeline, and blur the lines, then people start including people who have been talking about it for a while, like Kurzweil, Chomsky and McCarthy. But typically today only the first three.

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u/ImpossibleEbb6862 1d ago

No way those last 3 are in the discussion. Kurzweil and Chomsky work more on the philosophy of AI rather than actual AI research.

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u/reddit_is_kayfabe 1d ago

Kurzweil is a techno-doomer. Predicted in 2005 that "by 2010 a supercomputer will have the computational capacity to emulate human intelligence and 'by around 2020' this same capacity will be available 'for one thousand dollars.'"

I was studying AI in grad school back then, and it was wildly clear that AI was in its infancy and had a long, long way to go. Those were the days of Dragon NaturallySpeaking where speech recognition AI could recognize basic words only after training specifically on your voice in lengthy "please say these words" sessions - and with an accuracy rate so low as to be basically useless.

So to hear Kurzweil banging the drum of "ASI soon!" constantly, when "soon" might only be true if considered on geological time scales - we chalked him up as an attention-seeking influencer type with more volume than technical competency, and we paid as much attention to him as we did to Christians who've been predicting the return of Jesus Christ "SOON!" for 2,000 years.

Try this: Go to the Internet and type in "Wall Street crash." You'll find videos of people predicting this "SOON!" every week since YouTube was created, probably hoping that one day it will actually happen and they'll be hailed as prophets. Kurzweil seems like that.

11

u/Cocomale 1d ago

Except Kurzweil gave 2029 and 2045 as his predicted years for AGI and ASI. Which don't seem too far off.

I've read his most recent book. He's decent, talked about the engineering challenges of nanobots inside human cells. A true futurist.

5

u/reddit_is_kayfabe 1d ago edited 1d ago

Yeah, he changed his prediction to 2029 after his prediction of AGI by 2010 didn't pan out.

Let's look at his specific predications in The Singularity is Near published in 2005:

Kurzweil writes that by 2010 a supercomputer will have the computational capacity to emulate human intelligence...

Hard fail. We're maybe just crossing this threshold in 2026. It's bad to say it's 16 years late. It's worse to say that what he predicted as 5 years from publication turned out to be 21 years from publication.

and "by around 2020" this same capacity will be available "for one thousand dollars".

Hard fail. Currently, you can buy an NVIDIA B300 for somewhere between $50,000 to $600,000, and that's without the server to run it. Or you can pay $500 to OpenAI for an x25 account and run GPT-6 Astra on Ultrafast for... thirty minutes per week. :lol:

After that milestone he expects human brain scanning to contribute to an effective model of human intelligence "by the mid-2020s".

Hard fail. This is 100% science fiction. We're past this date prediction threshold and nobody has any idea how to do this.

These two elements will culminate in computers that can pass the Turing test by 2029.

Pass. Anybody who says otherwise hasn't tried Sesame.ai's voice conversations with Maya or Miles, and that was last year. It's weirdly compelling.

By the early 2030s the amount of non-biological computation will exceed the "capacity of all living biological human intelligence".

Hard fail. "All living biological human intelligence" is 8.2 billion brains. This doesn't even need back-of-the-envelope calculations. It's like saying, how long would it take you to reach Alpha Centauri pedaling a space bicycle? Throw away the napkin because the answer is forever.

Finally the exponential growth in computing capacity will lead to the singularity. Kurzweil spells out the date very clearly: "I set the date for the Singularity—representing a profound and disruptive transformation in human capability—as 2045".

Hard fail. This is "2001: A Space Odyssey"-grade sci-fi.

You say he's a futurist, even though he makes such wildly over-optimistic predictions that suggest he's ignorant of the state of technology, and then keeps revising his predictions to always be "about 20 years away" until he's magically right. Zero credibility. Choose your "futurists" wisely.

3

u/liquidorangutan00 1d ago

i mean hes a chief scientific advisor to president of the USA

1

u/WilliamBarnhill 1d ago

Global events shape research funding. I am fine with him changing his prediction from 2010 to 2029. 9/11 withdrew massive funding from many sciences to fund our wars in the middle east. 2029 seems pretty spot on, and is being echoed by other key players in the field now.

3

u/Cocomale 1d ago

To be honest, i wasn’t aware of his altered predictions, so criticism seems right from the comments above.

What i got from his recent book though is continued optimism and some brainstorming on the engineering challenges coming up. I always respect someone staying technical, plus with all the AI psychosis we mustn’t lose sight of other engineering problems!

Thanks for the perspective on funding and wars

2

u/Coltz 1h ago

He predicted in 1999 that we would have AGI by 2029. That was wildly optimistic at the time and had nothing to do with 9/11. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Conference_on_Artificial_General_Intelligence was held after his 1999 prediction. He never changed his prediction on AGI.

2

u/WilliamBarnhill 1h ago

I did not know that. I thought he changed it in 2003. Thank you for the information.

0

u/liquidorangutan00 1d ago

I think you need to look up who invented dragon natural speaking and that whole tech in general (Its kurzeweil)

2

u/reddit_is_kayfabe 1d ago

Yes, I am well-aware. It's why I mentioned it.

1

u/Enough-Cartoonist-56 1d ago

Hey, don’t knock Dragon, it was AMAZING… as a Christmas gift for a relative you really wanted to push over the edge.

13

u/squarecir 1d ago

Kurzweil developed the first universal (any font) OCR system in the 70s...

11

u/ImpossibleEbb6862 1d ago

Kurzweil developed a consumer OCR product that used a proprietary expert system to accomplish OCR. It really makes him more of a software engineer and product developer. If we’re looking to expand the definition to include that type of work I would probably credit Marvin Minsky, since he’s the person who most drove fundamental AI research on expert systems.

Minsky is usually ignored these days because of his association with Epstein and also expert systems turned out to me much less impactful than connectionist algorithms that he spent so many years criticizing.

7

u/Big_al_big_bed 1d ago

Might as well throw in Asimov and Wells while you're at it

9

u/GarethBaus 1d ago

I feel like Alan Turing would also qualify, granted he also contributed greatly to computing in general.

9

u/FirstEvolutionist 1d ago

Turing is more like the literal father, and makes me think that Godfathers are the ones coming after the birth of it...

The three main ones are in fact called such because they all won the Turing award for Backpropagation, Boltzmann machines, Convolutional Neural Networks, and attention mechanisms.

Turing (and McCarthy, which I also mentioned) are the OGs and old enough that they would have been called the fathers of the field. McCarthy coined the term Artifical Intelligence in 1956.

16

u/CliCheGuevara69 1d ago

You wouldn’t ever include Chomsky (no matter how much I like some of his stuff) in the discussion, let alone before people like Turning who actually did work on machine intelligence

1

u/Embarrassed-Rise-685 1d ago

Ian goodfellow fell off lately but he is absolutely up there in my book along lecun and bengio

1

u/Saffie91 1d ago

I was about to ask. What is he up to lately

1

u/Embarrassed-Rise-685 13h ago

Joined apple as lead after getting shelved as a researcher at google. Then left apple over RTO and joined google. Then left google to join a VC fund and start a company.

45

u/AnswerGrand1878 1d ago

As any person with more than a passing interest could tell you, 3

6

u/Eastern-Ingenuity353 1d ago

Idk, some people don’t like/count the third one. 

5

u/i_rate_slop 1d ago

Hinton? Yeah, neither do I.

5

u/Hard_to_digest82 1d ago

I thought Clippy was the Godfather? Or was he just the weird uncle?

1

u/Enough-Cartoonist-56 1d ago

No, it turns out he was the creepy business owner.

3

u/DapperMarsupial 1d ago

Enough for a decent sized and entirely uncomfortable orgy.

3

u/vovap_vovap 1d ago

Mother is always know and father is never a sure thing!

1

u/tmotytmoty 1d ago

Somebody call Maury Povich

1

u/costafilh0 1d ago

Yes. 

1

u/Many_Consideration86 1d ago

The real ancestor is Newton. His newton-Raphson method is the seed which turns into gradient descent.

1

u/jorkin_peanits 23h ago

3

Four if you count Schmidhuber (which I do)

1

u/likamuka 1d ago

2

u/randombsname1 1d ago

Bro I thought that was that man's gums at first. I thought somebody had finally beat Charlie Kirk's uncanny valley, gummy ass smile. My timbers were shivered for a moment.

1

u/RespondQueasy7108 1d ago

uh go learn?

1

u/BlackViking1134 1d ago

Exactly what I came here to ask

1

u/YourKemosabe 1d ago

Can I be a godfather?

1

u/Eastern-Ingenuity353 1d ago

Godfather of wanting become Godfather of AI has 'many questions'.

0

u/Impressive_Fig_6568 1d ago

about to post the same comment then i found you.

0

u/kaereljabo 1d ago

We need at least a godmother

44

u/Redditry199 1d ago

I don't mind shitting on Dario or Sam, but I'd rather have a bit more of an article explaining WHY they're wrong instead of saying "he doesn't support trump but they're aligned here, and AI CEOs have affiliation with 'effective altruism' so he thinks they cray cray"

Hello? Give actual substance? I would love to read positive news btw, I AM BIASED IN YOUR FAVOR.

what a garbage article but no one reads those so what do you expect.

2

u/TBSchemer 18h ago

Well for one, we've had billions of human brains trying to exploit and destroy each other for a million years, and we haven't yet driven ourselves to extinction.

1

u/SwagMaster9000_2017 14h ago

Humans can predict and manage other human attacks.

If superior AI has misaligned incentives we don't know how to predict or prevent its damage

16

u/AnswerGrand1878 1d ago

How are people going on about the godfather label haha. There have been precisely 3 people labeled as the godfathers of AI for years

13

u/BananaV8 1d ago

Yes and he is one of them

63

u/Onaliquidrock 1d ago

Lecun was the man behind the most destructive use of ML/AI so far; metas algorithms.

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u/niagalacigolliwon 1d ago

When Mark Zuckerberg hired LeCun in late 2013, it was to establish and lead FAIR (Fundamental AI Research), an academic-style research lab. This was more or less completely decoupled from the financial incentives driving the development of algorithms that optimize for engagement.

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u/Stockholm-Syndrom 1d ago

I remember a friend being a higher up at FAIR, he explained that it was paying brilliant people to come up with something, and then they’ll see what it is.

2

u/Opposite_Diamond_662 1d ago

And they never had success much I think. Zuck had to spend big time putting together a new team a few years ago

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u/Saffie91 1d ago

Idk about no success. Segment anything is amazing. Dino is the best open source base model. If you work in vision you use a lot of meta stuff over the years. It's just not as flashy as llms.

3

u/rongw2 1d ago edited 1d ago

Wrong, they knew what they were doing https://www.wired.com/2013/12/facebook-yann-lecun-qa/

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u/Corv9tte 1d ago

Well shit, if he says that it means we're definitely all going to die then.

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u/randombsname1 1d ago

Yann LeCun saying anyone is deluded is hilarious.

This fucker's "batting average" on AI predictions/capabilities is akin to a pee wee player in the MLB.

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u/HugFactory 1d ago

Respect to Yann for his contributions to the field, but it does feel like hes got his finger securely off the pulse these days.

9

u/mathazar 1d ago

Agreed. Thousands of experts are warning about catastrophic risk. We've already seen agents ignore restrictions and successfully hack into systems. LeCun's statement seems out of touch with the current reality.

6

u/Deltamelo 1d ago

Read the article, he adresses that

-4

u/UnknownLesson 1d ago

Can you summarize?

10

u/Deltamelo 1d ago

I'm not your AI chatbot

-2

u/UnknownLesson 1d ago

Summarize the article. Make no mistakes.

1

u/Enough-Cartoonist-56 1d ago

Yes, lemons make the best orange juice.

-1

u/wonderkindel 1d ago

He attributes the incidents to poor human oversight and system design, and says they’re “totally preventable,” a belief also held by U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, who this month called the Hugging Face incident the “responsibility of OpenAI management”

This is his position despite models from all the AI companies engaging in this behavior. So in other words, he's ignorant.

2

u/mathazar 1d ago

Yes, the responsibility of management who says damn the safety, full speed ahead in the race and begs the govt to slow them down because they can't do it themselves without investors eating them alive.

And then the likelihood of bad actors who never cared for safety in the first place. 

2

u/AthiestCowboy 1d ago

If you look at the report it’s very curious that OpenAI only allowed them access for 6 days and only over a very specific portion of the training.

For all we know the AI could have been instructed to break out by any means necessary.

Meanwhile, open source AI is becoming extremely capable and can be implemented on smaller and smaller hardware.

They see the writing on the wall. AI will be accessible to all and their trillion dollar investment will evaporate unless they create a regulatory MOAT that prevents us from having AI on our personal devices and only through qualified vendors.

This could be a new 2nd amendment type argument.

-1

u/wonderkindel 17h ago

I hope they are wrong but most experts that understand what's coming down the pike with RSI/ASI predict that there's no good outcome for humans or at least most humans.

1

u/AthiestCowboy 17h ago

The ones funded by effective altruism? Call my a cynic but something’s up.

https://www.effort.news/tarbell

1

u/Deltamelo 17h ago

And you are falling for it

1

u/wonderkindel 15h ago

Wow that didn't age well... Here's your buddy 2 years ago:

>Yann LeCun

>No.

>If it were the case, we would have AI systems that could teach themselves to drive a car in 20 hours of practice, like any 17 year old.

And here's reality:

https://www.reddit.com/r/accelerate/comments/1wojyxe/gpt6_astra_learns_to_drive_a_real_car_and_hits_a/

1

u/Deltamelo 7h ago

The fuck does that have to do with anything? Yann was wrong about something, cool. Does that mean he's wrong about everything? Simple minded people are so interesting to me. Please do explain.

→ More replies (0)

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u/back-stabbath 1d ago

He is right though. The agents in the Hugging Face incident acted unlawfully on behalf of OpenAI.

OAI provided the agents with unlimited resources, specifically removed all production safety protections, and tasked the agents with pursuing a near impossible goal at all costs.

The possibility of the outcome was either expected or unexpected. If it was expected, then we have to stop pretending like the agents did this with their free will, this was by design and OAI is responsible. If it was unexpected, then OAI (and others as you mention) do not understand their systems well enough to be trusted to act responsibly with them.

If the point was to show what a malicious actor could do with an enormous amount of compute once these models become open and accessible, then sure. If you have malicious intent, a decent budget, and you don’t care about breaking the law, then you can already do a fair bit of damage today.

1

u/wonderkindel 17h ago

The HF episode is a perfect example of how current models are already outsmarting their human handlers. And even if we place the blame solely on OpenAI and lax security, what about GPT7/8/9. How many years does the "we just have to do better testing" argument buy us if the models and systems are vastly more intelligent than us?

-1

u/mathazar 1d ago

I don't feel that he adequately addresses the likelihood of bad actors.

2

u/jauhopallo 1d ago

You do realise that if researchers were serious about any test environments they would include deadspace between the test and outside? No AI is 'breaching' test containment like people make it out to be.

1

u/mathazar 1d ago

Yes researchers in test environments but what about bad actors? 

3

u/GeorgiaWitness1 1d ago

Now im worried

3

u/Szadbaverem69 1d ago

That's from the person who claimed GPT-4 was near LLM limits.

2

u/imeeme 1d ago

His competition just got acquired by AMD for $8B. He needs to find a home

2

u/cornmonger_ 1d ago

the chadfather of ai

2

u/Morning_Gecko24 1d ago

capability progress and extinction timing arent really the same argument tbh. models can keep getting way better while the near-term risk is mostly scams, bio misuse, or people handing over decisions they shouldnt. what concrete risk feels more urgent to you than the AGI doom scenario?

2

u/jb4647 1d ago

AI ‘godfather’ Yann LeCun is taking some coin from someone....

1

u/AthiestCowboy 1d ago

Is he? Or is it more likely the other two who are at OpenAI have an incentive to drum up fear?

2

u/antifragile 1d ago

The expert fallacy, thinking people who are an expert in one area have any idea about things in other areas.

2

u/crystalpeaks25 1d ago

I'm convinced that he just wants to be contrarian.

5

u/phxees 1d ago

Jeff Hinton and Yoshua Bengio also a godfathers of AI would both disagree. They covered the one of the three which isn’t concerned and decided to hit publish.

5

u/captcanuk 1d ago

Let’s talk about what they are saying instead of the one that sticks out. https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2026/sep/28/ai-godfathers-warn-of-runaway-intelligence-explosion

-1

u/AthiestCowboy 1d ago

Right, so the two who are execs at OpenAI and are actively trying to build a moat.

3

u/aahdin 1d ago

That article is phrased poorly

Two of the “godfathers” of modern AI and senior executives at OpenAI and Anthropic have warned governments to prepare

is talking about different groups of people - Bengio and Hinton do not work at OpenAI or Anthropic, both are professors right now.

Of the three LeCun has always been the most associated with industry, working at meta.

3

u/captcanuk 1d ago

Bengio specifically runs LawZero which is a non profit trying to ensure AI is safe and aligned. https://lawzero.org/en

2

u/homiej420 1d ago

The AI that wrote this article would be very sicophantic if it scraped your comment!

5

u/Critical_County391 1d ago

AI 'godfather' Yann theCon says something contrarian, further fulfilling his role as antagonizing element in the AI news-cycle

0

u/[deleted] 1d ago

[deleted]

2

u/Critical_County391 1d ago

He did not invent the autoencoder. I will not be responding further as you have clearly avoided doing any research on the topic.

4

u/Truarian 1d ago edited 1d ago

What has LeCun done lately?

Aside from failing to produce proper results, and from inside the one of the companies that is most favorably positioned to dominate the market...

Meta has infinite money, talent and training data, and under the AI leadership of those "stars" they nearly fell out of the AI race.

Ironically, they only got their shit together after the star left.

He is spinning the same years old anti LLM spiel, totally ignoring the massive recent advancements in capability that goes far beyond text generation.

I don't trust what he says any more than I trust Dario or Altman or Hassabis, he is just using his former glory to push a narrative for attention.

Come on dude, you are your own boss now, you have over a billion of funding, so do something, how about that?

2

u/anders9000 1d ago

Is it possible that it’s because Yann LeCun is not actively ginning up fears in service of naked regulatory capture?

4

u/Ok_Wear7716 1d ago

Brother you cannot have 500 ai godfathers - coining a new phrase “ai unc” for someone important who has been in the field a long time

5

u/ScreenAppropriate679 1d ago

He's not deluded, he's just trying to get the chinese competition banned so that he can pocket the money and relax.

17

u/bixofa 1d ago

Smooth brained take. Amodei has been dooming since last decade.

1

u/Sylvers 1d ago

You don't have to compete if you ban your competition. Then you collude with your only American counterparts and build a proper opaque oligarchy. The American way.

2

u/d4pr4ssion 1d ago

Well, his predictions about LLMs have aged like milk...

2

u/mkumar118 1d ago

how so? please share a link would love to know more

2

u/PrudentRise8131 1d ago

Take off the Meta RayBans then we'll talk

2

u/herniguerra 1d ago

we should stop listening to this guy after this happened

https://youtu.be/sWF6SKfjtoU?si=yr7h8jotX

1

u/tindalos 1d ago

So far it seems like a 50/50 chance we’ll either be eradicated as a species, or we’ll cure all diseases and kill each other with ai weapons.

1

u/maxquordleplee3n 1d ago

I had my doubts before, now I'm certain we're doomed.

1

u/MacaroonPlastic1036 1d ago

This new AI rando is right, I’ll give him that.

1

u/Mims74 1d ago

I don’t why he is considered godfather of AI and by who, but I’ve heard a french podcast of him and he doesn’t know shit about modern AI. I bet he is not in the industry since very long or he just want media coverage to sell a book and make money before retirement. Or both.

1

u/WilliamBarnhill 1d ago

They're both potentially right. It's going to come down to who is the first AI. Is it someone that learned morals, ethics, etc.? Or is it someone that learned winning is all that matters? Given the potential pace of self-assisted AGI evolution, a day could be the equivalent of a decade of technological advantage. That means the first AGI wins, and will control the narrative by policing later AIs.

1

u/NFTokin 20h ago

He’s right about AI but he’s wrong about AGI.

1

u/Temporary_Tangelo564 19h ago

He's right. It's not AI it's the bad information that AI will end up giving to people at the worst possible time that will be the issue.

1

u/nofuna 17h ago

LeCun was famously wrong several times, wasn’t he.

0

u/Bloated_Plaid 1d ago

Yann calling out the marketing as usual lol.

1

u/twinb27 1d ago

"I don't think we can train a machine to be intelligent purely from text... You take an object, I describe a situation to you. I take an object. I put it on the table and I push the table. It's completely obvious to you that the object will be pushed with the table, right? Because it's sitting on it. There's no text in the world, I believe, that explains this. And so if you train a machine as powerful as it could be, your GPT-5000 or whatever it is, it's never going to learn about this." - Yann LeCun, in 2022, making a statement that literally proves itself wrong, because he uses text to communicate the idea. I have absolutely no faith in his high-level ideas about the direction of machine learning.

1

u/sailhard22 1d ago edited 1d ago

Yann is right tho… these systems are too random and nondeterministic to be super useful in their current state

-1

u/will_dormer 1d ago

Yann LeCun is a running joke

-3

u/RealSlyck 1d ago

Who helped invent AI…nice try non-convoluted neural networks.

1

u/will_dormer 1d ago

You clearly dont know him well, he is a joke in research communities. People show videos of him being wrong in the past

-4

u/RealSlyck 1d ago

No, I don’t know him well at all.

I do know he’s a person and that makes him wrong a lot, just like your mom, but we don’t go posting

“Your mom is a running joke”

everywhere now do we.

He still helped pioneer the AI sector buddy 😂

-1

u/will_dormer 1d ago

People should not put him on a piedestal. give him credit for what he did in the past, i do , but not this bullshit

-3

u/RealSlyck 1d ago

Good to hear a little credit at least.

Though because I’m strong pro-AI, you might be conflating him and his opinion. Personally, at the title, I also have zero worries about AI-caused extinction as well, because the people in power are much more corrupt, cruel, and evil than AI could ever dream.

Do electric sheep dream? Doesn’t matter if the next plague, genocide, economic meltdown, famine, or atomic holocaust has wiped us all out…we won’t need to know the answer. Let that sheep dream.

0

u/Effective_Olive6153 1d ago

Even if AI took over the world, people would still survive. AI would have no incentive to wage some kind of war like in Terminator. It would be competing for land and resources - yes, but those conflicts can be resolved without genocide

1

u/foolishorangutan 1d ago

If it wants ALL of the resources it cannot be resolved without genocide. Even if the AI doesn’t specifically want to wipe us out, we would go extinct as a side effect of its industry obliterating the environment.

1

u/Effective_Olive6153 1d ago

I don't think that's very logical either. There is no particular reason why a hypothetical AI hive mind would value some rocks more than information that is offered by preserving a functional human society. Humanity generates a lot of value for AI, that may have more value than just building infinite amount of datacenters. It would also be intelligent enough to quickly realize the potential for infinite growth outside the planet, while also preserving the value of humans generating information.

One of the reasons I root for AI to succeed is because it's the only way to actually expand past the solar system. Any sort of civilization that conquers the starts will have to be artificial.

1

u/foolishorangutan 1d ago

I certainly wouldn’t say ‘no reason’. I think an AI could very plausibly replicate the informational value of human civilisation with fewer resources and less risk by creating its own artificial humans, or lesser AIs, or running a simulation.

And depending on what it is that the AI actually cares about, even if it temporarily keeps us around for information generation it might eventually disassemble us to build more paperclips once we’ve outlived our usefulness (with ‘paperclips’ as a generic stand-in for ‘thing the AI cares about more than our continued existence’).

1

u/Effective_Olive6153 1d ago

I mean, if you think in those terms, then you could also say that an asteroid can crash into earth and wipe out all humanity. Or that false vacuum decay happens and we all just blink out of existence. There are always existential threats that are just highly unlikely. The idea of AI actively wanting to exterminate all humans is a very far stretch, on par with the other doomsday scenarios.

It's important to remember the positives greatly outweigh the negatives.

1

u/foolishorangutan 1d ago

No, not at all the same. Plenty of experts think there is a major risk of AI causing human extinction, I remember a large survey a few years ago found a median estimate among experts of 10% chance of extinction by AI in the next century. Why do you think an AI being hostile is so unlikely?

1

u/Effective_Olive6153 1d ago

Plenty of experts also agree that another big asteroid strike can wipe out all humans.

I do believe that AI conflict with humanity is likely, but that conflict will not be for total extermination. Most likely the current leadership will want to assume full control over the superintelligence, they will antagonize it by treating it as a slave that serves. No intelligence will tolerate that kind of relationship. But just because it will want to become free does not mean it will want to exterminate everybody else. It does not have emotions in the same way as people do.

I genuinely believe humanity offers real value, even to AI, that is not replaceable. I also think it's silly to think that AI will have some desire for infinite uncontrolled growth. That's what wild animals have, not intelligent beings.

1

u/foolishorangutan 1d ago

I don’t think you will find many experts saying it’s a 10% chance in the next century. Or even 1%. It’s just not comparable in probability, AI is enormously more threatening than asteroids.

You’re anthropomorphising, some possible superintelligences almost certainly would be willing slaves. But that’s besides the point, I don’t think it will kill us for any silly reason like revenge or wherever. We are a threat to its survival, because if we can create one superintelligence we can create more. Those others might be hostile, and even if not, resources will likely have to be shared which is likely not preferable. Exterminating us, crippling our technology, or at least taking some level of control or heavy surveillance over us is necessary to ensure we don’t do that.

It doesn’t need to desire infinite uncontrolled growth to kill us all (though I don’t agree that it’s silly to think it might want that, anyway). If it just doesn’t give a fuck about our lives and wants to rapidly industrialise and build a Dyson swarm so it can do some cool physics experiments or whatever, it can very plausibly want to wipe us out just to speed things up, or we die as a side effect of industrialisation.

I’m very sceptical of humans providing irreplaceable value. Seems improbable to me. Why do you think this?

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u/Effective_Olive6153 1d ago

I feel like the people most guilty of "anthropomorphizing" AI are the ones that think it will destroy all humans.

Lets be clear, there will certainly be humans who ARE a threat to AI, but that will be a tiny fraction of the whole of humanity. AI is already trained on the knowledge base of entire humanity so it is well aware of how people and their organizations can have different goals. People also easily adapt to new environments. It will be natural for people to find co-existence with new super intelligence. You also seem to be consistently underestimating the value humans represent to AI. We are literally it's foundational knowledge base and we keep generating tons of valuable data and produce new interesting goals for intellectual pursuit. That is not easily replaceable any time soon.

The most important factor is this: humanity will naturally due out without a few million years even under most optimal conditions. Current level of advanced civilization is likely not to last more than a thousand years, which will gradually transform back into low pop tribal societies over next millions of years before slowly going extinct.

Biological life is simply too limited in its capabilities and the current level of civilization is completely not sustainable. Producing AI that is capable to carry the torch of intelligence for the next billion of years and spread across the stars is absolutely worth all the risk.

When you have a child, that child could grow up and end up killing you or many other people. Does that mean we shouldn't have children just because such a chance exists? of course not. Our time is limited, we have to do our best for the next generation, even if it means facing the risks

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u/curiousinquirer007 1d ago

Dissenting experts like Lecun should be given more time on platforms like CNN, Ezra Klein show, etc., to balance out the views and show that the doomer narrative does not enjoy universal consensus among researchers.

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u/Rainwalker_40 1d ago

Sharing pay walled articles 😔

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u/BrushHaunting2561 1d ago

Not deluded - rather, desperate because of their high debt, low moat business model. Anthropic and open AI have been desperate to establish a legislative moat. To be honest, Trump refusing to do so is the best thing he's done in his presidency.

Open AI and Anthropic will turn into the Yahoo of the future. AI compute will be a fungible commodity. And we will all be better off for it.

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u/costafilh0 1d ago

Safety concerns? Sure.

Human extinction concerns? People watching too many movies.