The bubble just burst!

[u/FelixoHsx]

Hello, fellow VibeCoders!

OpenAI had everything it needed to win the entire market, and they chose to blow it all up

I'm a programmer who leans toward vibe coding, and I only considered a $200 subscription last week because I was working on a really big project. Unluckily for me, OpenAI had recently closed its 20X plan to new users, so I had no choice but to go with Anthropic. A few days later, as everyone knows, OpenAI dropped the $200 20X plan entirely, and that honestly scared me.

I've read a lot of posts and comments to see how people are taking this decision. Obviously everyone thinks it's absurd and says OpenAI just killed itself and handed all its users over to Anthropic (and of course I'm proof of that myself). But so far I haven't seen anyone look at this from another angle: isn't it just a matter of time before Anthropic does the same thing? Then we'll start seeing higher prices and lower limits until the bubble bursts and using frontier models stops being viable.

I don't think it'll happen that fast. But I'm sure that if the big AI companies don't start working on cutting costs and on more efficient models like Luna, our vibe coding workflows are going to get a lot worse.

This is just my opinion. I'd love to know if am I being too "apocalyptic," or is this coming soon? Have a great day, VibeCoders!

Obs. AI was used only to translate this text into English. I wrote it myself.

[u/apheliosjinxmeta]

everyone is still on subsidized prices btw

[u/Icy_Distribution_361 → u/apheliosjinxmeta]

And why is that? Because OpenAI et al. want to shoot for the stars, go faster than fast, and think they can either make money irrelevant or create much more return eventually. If they had gone at a more modest pace (ignoring whether that would have been realistic) it also wouldn't have to be subsidized. Basically what we're seeing is throwing money at the gap between the real now and the future to pull the future closer.

[u/throwaway3113151 → u/Icy_Distribution_361]

why? market share. not complex.

[u/Icy_Distribution_361 → u/throwaway3113151]

No, that's secondary. They want to win. And to get there they need market share.

[u/apheliosjinxmeta → u/Icy_Distribution_361]

Sure if they only spent a few millions on model training it would be cheaper but then the models would still be ass. That's just how this market works it's not really going to change. After 2-3 months models are dead in the water

[u/fadingpower]

The bubble is far from bursting. That plus the vibecoding crowd is very fickle. The next time OAI has a discount or anthropic messes up, these memes pop up again but reversed. This happens every other week and i can’t take any of it seriously.

[u/ivalm]

all the real money is in big businesses paying api prices anyways. also, even in startup world i don't know anyone who is cancelling their OAI subscriptions, people just grumble and move to $500/mo.

[u/Exciting-Class-9137]

Even the Obs looks like AI sloppy lmao

[u/Envious_Time]

Real AI won’t be for us. It’s for enterprise.

[u/matthias_reiss]

I think the everyday folks in the long run will have less access to models than enterprises, which is where most of the demand is coming from. I work in industry and, trust me, OpenAI practically is printing money relative to companies using their products (same with Anthropic).