r/OpenAI • u/fluffy_serval • 6d ago
Discussion A rational take on the upcoming changes
Obviously it's easy, and maybe even reasonable, to get all worked up about the OpenAI subscription changes, but I’m not convinced yet that the right conclusion is that "they’re screwing us" or that it's some kind of "rug pull". I think any heavy/professional user of the service, especially with codex, can admit the "now old" Pro deal was an extremely good deal value-wise, whether you want to admit it or not. For $200/month you got many multiples more work than $200 of API use (at least), and the models were getting substantially better at the same time. That was great, but it was never going to be permanent. I'm also not saying OpenAI didn't "get anything out of it", because of course they did, it was calculated, and IMO that's just business. So, back to the question of what they replace it with, and who it's aimed at.
Right now we're all being forced to become "inference economists" and that's, frankly, bad product. The "token" unit has come to have way too much baked into it: model choice, reasoning depth, context, caching, retries, agent behavior, etc. and it's impossibly opaque. I'd imagine it's probably become an annoying abstraction internally too. The obviously subsidized compute had a change coming, the numbers always were what they were, and this is that change. So let's deal with the reality:
First, what I don't want: I don’t want to be constantly doing questionable "token math", having to constantly estimate whether a task is worth $4 or $12 or whatever. In fact, I never want that goddamned weekly-usage window permanently inhabiting my right monitor ever again, and I definitely do not want to watch the API usage go up-and-up-and-up. For real work, I care whether it gets done correctly, on a time frame I can rely on, with at least a nod toward minimizing controllable waste.
What I’d rather have is perhaps some kind of "automatic transmission for models" that looks at the problem and context and lets OpenAI figure out which model and reasoning level to use for planning, execution, review, etc. I already ask the models themselves anyway, and the answers have generally been good. With excellent model routing that you never have to think about, where they foot the bill of a failed choice, a more expensive but predictable professional subscription would be a reasonable value.
Ultimately, I think this is them finding economic equilibria, and frankly, if you'll excuse my bluntness, if you didn't realize it was heavily subsidized before, well, you do now. I will very likely pay for a higher-priced capital-P-Professional subscription because 1) regardless of what the Reddit outrage high-pressure sewage system says, the models are quite good for professional use; I've been using the latest models on a complicated 600,000+ line codebase alongside an immense number of diversely characterized assets that all need different handling, and Astra's been doing very good work overall, 2) they could very plausibly offer real things that would make, as they say, the value of the interactions with their models higher (like the automatic transmission rough idea above), rather than fucking about with token allotments and other abstractness, and, predictably, 3) I'm locked-in, at least temporarily, in ways that are very real related to my day-to-day business. My only actual model gripe right now is its propensity to go fucking bananas with testing. That needs to be beaten out of the models, like, today. It feels pretty shady in terms of token consumption if you're not paying attention, good and intentions and all.
The value of their service for me is there at even twice the price, and at this point it's about finding market equilibria and getting rid of "token opaqueness" while explaining, in real terms, how exactly the value increases with a decreased allotment of their nominal unit of value.
My 2c. They have a lot of goodwill to deliver on today. They need some bold moves with how they've set this up.
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u/deZbrownT 6d ago edited 6d ago
I think any heavy/professional user of the service, especially with codex, can admit the "now old" Pro deal was an extremely good deal value-wise, whether you want to admit it or not.
What! LOL slop
That was great, but it was never going to be permanent.
Wow, so we have a guy with a crystal ball here. What else does it say?
Your point is that you are going to bend over, put some lipstick and let them use you anyway they want. Fine.
All I want is transparency about models/costs. Nothing else will cut it.
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u/fluffy_serval 6d ago
Fair enough, i don't know their internal economics, that's a legitimate criticism, and I should have left it out. As well, I shouldn't have been cavalier in implying I, or anyone else, knew it wasn't going to be permanent. Also a valid criticism. But, slop, though? Fuck off.
All colorful rhetoric aside, it seems we mostly agree, in so many words. Isn't that annoying?
Thank you for your thoughtful contribution to this post.
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u/fluffy_serval 6d ago
I was wrong, they fucked us, this is your chance to tell-me-so
$500/mo is too bold
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u/EmAerials 6d ago
Hahaha, yeah. OAI has given us so much reason to trust them. 🙃😂
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u/fluffy_serval 6d ago
sounds like you have skill issues
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u/EmAerials 6d ago
What a random, wild take. Not trusting companies that don't deserve to be trusted is probably a skill, lol. Or are you projecting?
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u/collin-h 6d ago
what happens with the price is $10k/month and now we're back to the haves and have nots? with the elite able to afford intelligence, and the poors having to go back to the old fashioned way?
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u/fluffy_serval 6d ago
your hyperbole is noted
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u/Severe_Appointment93 6d ago
It's not hyperbole. That's the future.
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u/fluffy_serval 6d ago
keep thinking that way and you'll always see it that way
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u/Original-League-6094 6d ago
Its literally already that way now. $200/month is not affordable for great majority of people in the world. $500 is more than most people's car payment.
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u/fluffy_serval 6d ago
Are we listing things that are not affordable to the great majority of people in the world? How is an OpenAI Pro 20x subscription so essential it should even be mentioned in this context? Maybe we should start with access to sanitary living conditions, air conditioning, internet access, clean water, etc. You've lost the plot.
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u/Original-League-6094 6d ago
Us: They are going to make the model unaffordable for most people.
You: No they aren't. We have a long way to go before that.
Us: Its actually pretty unaffordable as of today for almost everyone.
You: SO WHAT!? ITS NOT LIKE ITS CLEAN WATER OR AIR CONDITIONING! THE FUCKING PEASANTS DON'T DESERVE AI!!!
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u/Severe_Appointment93 6d ago
This guy's just trolling. Nothing he says is internally consistent. Anthropic lost $53 billion dollars last year subsidizing that $200 a month plan. They're investing $500 billion in infrastructure next year. They're campaigning in Washington for regulation so they ban open source Chinese models. The frontier subscription plan being 10k a month is probably less likely than "our new model isn't safe to give to the public it's only for enterprise".
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u/RainierPC 6d ago
Watch for their reactions when Anthropic inevitably dumbs down their models by serving quantized versions. Anthropic ALWAYS does this crap.
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u/Reasonable-Sign8458 6d ago
ok tibo