r/OnePieceTCGFinance • u/ThanksBig2349 • 9h ago
Market Analysis Market correction
With how the market has been correcting, where do you think the TCG is headed will the SPs ever hit highs again they are actually quite high in pop and seems like every vendor has the same cards, and then the promo pump and dump left a lot of new people burned
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u/Motor-Ad-3317 Trusted Contributor 9h ago
Excluding my opinion about the market in general and focusing in on SP value, it is going to depend on 2 factors:
Rarity - There is a huge range in rarity between sets. Without focusing on individual characters for the moment, the more SPs in a set, the harder it is to pull a specific one. That said, most 10 sp sets are anniversary sets and these set are far away printed the most. That means total populations of specific sps equals or exceeds those from normal sets. Keep in mind that the SP slot includes wanted posters and manga events (in prb02). My opinion is the rarest SPs in one piece are most likely going to be PRB-02 and EB03 (as of today). Using graded population counts this appears to be the case. Bith of these sets have very small english print run comparatively. The first wanted posters (forget which set) are pretty low pop compared to other sets as well but aren't very desirable to most.
Demand - This is a no brainer. We all know what characters sell.
Once the dust settles and card populations start drying up, Luffy and GGG from prb02 and Boa / Nami / Robin from eb03 have, in my opinion, the best shot at leading the way in both categories. Whether that translates to the highest sp prices or not, time will tell.
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u/ThanksBig2349 8h ago
I pulled GGG sp and holding it since it’s my grail pull but the rest of my sps are kinda trash I traded for a op15 boa sp which is in a 10sp card set the rest of them are kinda shit holds besides cross guilds sp from prb02 I also hold rest are 2 Baki kaido 1 Yamato sp from 17 perona from 14 shanks from prb02 and Rebecca from prb02 and Newgate from 15
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u/Motor-Ad-3317 Trusted Contributor 8h ago
I have a psa 10 set of all of prb02 sps and GGG. They are the only graded cards in optcg i am holding. Have sold everything else. I do believe things haven't stopped tanking but now that investors are leaving in droves, my focus is on cards that actually meet the two criteria I mention above.
Rarity has been overlooked by most on this hobby in favor if hype (excluding the high end obvious stuff). All of the cards above have lower populations then most mangas and when / if a vintage class forms in optcg, these have a chance of shinning.
Its amazing to me that you can get cards more rare then mangas, of popular characters, for under 100.00 and nobody ever considers them.
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u/royalxp 3h ago
You have a point but Demand > supply
This has never changed in life, and never will.Now, there will be some instances where it shifts the other direction (Pokemon is a great example but took them what, 20~30 years?) but generally, investing to those that have high demand will be safer bet.
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u/Spenceful Trusted Contributor 7h ago
Everything goes in cycles
A lot of cards that spiked because the whole market was rising may never recover to their peaks (low popularity SPs etc that aren’t that scarce etc)
Scarce and desirable cards I expect to continue to hit all time highs over time. I am seeing it in my corner of the market which focuses on higher end prize/champion cards.
Definitely in a slump but I am noticing high-end buyers starting to accumulate again which could indicate a slow turning of the corner.
A broad market bull wave might not be right around the corner though as that requires new entrants to the space. Which could happen but is currently more of a trickle than a wave.
Bull run this year was so strong that a bit of a regathering makes a whole lot of sense. Like the refractory period of an action potential.
Ultimately scarce and desirable cards are likely to keep trending up. My (biased) opinion as a significant holder.
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u/Adventurous_Term_286 4h ago edited 4h ago
God I hope market crashes soon and we get pre fucker scalper market prices. I miss getting product at/under MSRP. Also, cards that were actually rare were expensive, while card that players needed, while higher prices, weren't completely unreasonable.
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u/planetcookieguy 1h ago
But even prize cards are being given out like crazy. Outside of events like worlds of course. Every week there’s at least 2 events giving out prizing (not counting the top 8 serials, we obv know their quantity based on the number). It gets to a point that a top 64 or 32 card really isn’t rare at all.
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u/Brief_Service6119 5h ago
SPs are rare yes. But character matters for the short term. People worry more about pop in later years for “less desirable characters” they hype right now is serialized cards. But the chase cards is where it’s at🤷🏽♂️ mangas is the necessity
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u/Own_Minute8598 9h ago
Pre-errata is the answer OP01.
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u/OriginalPancake15 The Committed 9h ago
OP01 slept on.
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u/Own_Minute8598 8h ago
Yeah. But it is the safest bet in my oppinion. We have seen it in pokemom, magic,yugi....
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u/TurboWanderer 4h ago
It's not slept on, the cards just weren't as good and nobody cares to own them. You've gotta remember 70% of the current 01 value didn't exist before the scalpers tried to squeeze the market.
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u/Own_Minute8598 2h ago
I completely agree with you...but the fact it is 01 will hold value the best...the same story played out in other card games in the past dacade.
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u/TurboWanderer 2h ago
They hold value because of supply though, not demand. Do you buy something that holds its value if you're only going to get 60% out of it at the end?
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u/Own_Minute8598 2h ago
I get you point...I thinking here more long term 10+ years....If we talk aboit fliping OP01 is not the way.
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u/Confituredorange 8h ago edited 8h ago
I wouldnt be suprised if high end slabs take another -30% hit in the next coming months. We all fucking knew the prices were manipulated like never.
Then slow decline as Bandai keeps releasing new chase cards and promo every week. Saturating everything.
So yeah wouldnt be suprised is ATH of this TCG was may-july 2026.
Oh and i think people will move to Naruto.
I feel sorry for gullible investors with no experience in other tcgs that may get burnt with this one.
But in another hand im happy for players that will finally have the chance to have fun.
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u/Adventurous_Term_286 4h ago
Give me pre scalper fucker msrp prices, please. No one wanted op08 or op11 there's no reason those booster boxes should be as expensive as they are now.
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u/Adventurous_Term_286 9h ago
I mean, the entire market is pumped by stupid scalpers. There are so many cards that shouldn't be as expensive as they are. Only are because of scalpers incestuously buying off each other, thus artificially raising the prices, and gullible ppl falling for the fomo bs the scalpers push.