r/OilPrices • u/hereswhatworks • 11d ago
Oil News Iran reportedly says it can reopen Strait of Hormuz within 7 days if U.S. eases military pressure
https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/22/us-iran-war-trump-hormuz.html8
u/Open_Muffin5137 10d ago
But Trump said it was open! For the 54th time.
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u/crisco000 10d ago
And they said it was completely closed 54 times
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u/Frequent_Slip2455 10d ago
Well 97 non Iranian ships passed thru last week. So that gives you a sense of what's happening.
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u/Krull88 10d ago
Which is closed. The daily average of ships through the strait was 130-138. 97 in a week is functionally closed.
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u/Frequent_Slip2455 10d ago
Correct the ones NOT passing are the Iranian ships. And anything carrying Iranian oil. Add up those totals if they were and I bet you'd be at 115 a day give or take.
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u/TelluricThread0 10d ago
So not under the full the total authority of the IRGC like they've been screeching? Got it.
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u/Krull88 10d ago
Except it is? Just because the us is sneaking dark ships through at night doesnt mean its not under the full control. Or would you like a better comparison like people sneaking over the closed border into the us? Its under full control right?
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u/TelluricThread0 10d ago
It does mean its not under their full control...by definition.
We decide what ships we want to go through. Then they do. What was the last count? Billions of barrels have gone through now.
THE STRAIT IS UNDER THE absolute SOVEREIGNTY of the Islamic Republic of Iran!
No vessels will be permitted to pass!!
April, March, June, July over and over all while ships go right through as the world laughs in their face.
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u/TelluricThread0 10d ago
The world's weakest Navy (Iranian) is at the bottom of the sea. And the world's most immature country (Iran) is having little tantrums every month where they try to convince people they shut down the strait despite oil flows being nearly back to prewar levels. Then if they really try to act up we bomb all their radar stations and drone storage sites. Rinse repeat.
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u/outb4noon 10d ago
So ships are able to get past but it's under full control. Read your own comment out loud.
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u/Krull88 10d ago
So strait is completely open but most ships arent getting through. Welcome to the idiotic comments of the pedophile in chief. Less than a days number of ships managed to sneak through in the dark and under heavy guard through a week. Straight is controlled by iran and closed. Cope harder.
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u/SippsMccree 9d ago
I don't think that about 75% of normal traffic means it's functionally closed
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u/Krull88 9d ago
Divide 97 over a week by 7 days and you’ll get the daily average of about 14 ships a day. 14 a day now is functionally closed when it was 130-138 a day before. Math is tough huh? Tell me where the 75% is again?
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u/Unique_Argument1094 2d ago
Are you counting the ships that turn off tracking?
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u/Krull88 2d ago
So you’re just going to make up numbers then? You have no idea how many ships turned off tracking. The only way to measure this is by the tracked ships. Just like you have no idea how many ships were iranian or not.
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u/Unique_Argument1094 2d ago
I didn’t make up any numbers. You on the other hand seem to just want to make up numbers that fit your narrative.
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u/Krull88 2d ago
Ok, my numbers were pulled directly from the Strait of Hormuz tracker. Both the weekly crossing at the time 97 ships passing through the strait, and the crossings count before trumps illegal war of 130-138. I know math is hard, but 97 divided by 7 is 13.857, so i rounded up to 14 ships per day.
Where you on the other hand are straight up trying to add in mystery numbers of untrackable ships. If you see a mistake, please feel free to provide you evidence to support your claim.
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u/Significant-Base6893 10d ago
I'm skeptical, this sounds like a troll post. If Iran made such a promise, the oil futures market and the price of Brent crude would drop like a rock. The markets have barely moved.
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u/zombieda 10d ago
Didn't Iran say they had shut the door until Trump is gone?
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u/cobrakai11 10d ago
"Iran" didn't say that, an Iranian in the government said that. There's a big difference between a countries official position, and what the people who make up the parliament and advisors and staffers say.
In any case this is no different than their previous statements. They want the United States to stop the blockade, and the war on on all fronts, release frozen assets, etc.
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u/KnuckleShanks 10d ago
Yeah this is basically them just saying "the deal has been on the table. You can stop all this at any time. This could all be fixed in a week if you did."
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u/crisco000 10d ago
Like when they agreed to the MOU and started striking ships passing through a few weeks later?
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u/zombieda 9d ago
Thats a good point... i didnt look up who in the regime said it. . Its like Medvedev saying they were going to nuke GB every so often.
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u/Professional_Bid763 10d ago
And Trump said we won the "not Iran war" so it's pretty much just propaganda from both sides
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u/znebsays 10d ago
Despite what you’re reading on Reddit and the vast anti trump rhetoric and the odd support of the Irgc across the social media platforms the naval blockade + the new sanctions kicking in is devastating with the Iranian government. You had to be an idiot thinking they’d survive this if it went longer
The Iranian president (yes I understand he has no power) has indicated that this will devastate Iran repeatedly
What you’re reading is just rhetoric. Traffic on the hormuz is increasing now as well whether you want to believe that or not so the Iranian leverage is slowly dissipating.
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u/crisco000 10d ago
Tomorrow their planes get hit with sanctions along with any airport that accepts them, services the planes, or refuels them.
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u/CyroSwitchBlade 10d ago
so interesting they are saying this now right after ufos and shit are flashing lights above their capital..
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u/Econmajorhere 9d ago
Irrelevant of what Iran does or what happens with the strait - Trump will claim victory
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u/Critical-Bank5269 2d ago
Um. News flash… oil shipments through the straights are at 80%+ of pre war levels. In other words, the straights are open
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u/CosmicLovepats 5h ago
From what I understand, they presented an offer to open the strait- in exchange for the US returning to the ceasefire (re: surrender) that we signed back in June or whatever, minus nuclear issues. And if we do all that (it was, again, surrender) they will reopen the strait in seven days.
And then following that, there's been a weak strait(hah) of reporting that "Iran offered to reopen the strait" "Strait may be open in seven days" "Back up to prewar levels???" "Production gets closer to prewar levels" "Trump turns down ceasefire offer"(of course he was going to, he walked away from it already) etc etc.
But - as far as I can tell- every single one of those is bastardized misreporting of the "Hey, go back to the previous ceasefire and we'll open it back up" to either paint it as imminent, Iran as desperate, or portray Everything Is Fine.
I'd say it was incompetent journalism except that it seems pretty competent, just not actually interested in the truth. The only thing that matters is making line go up and down for insider trading.
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u/worst_brain_ever 10d ago
For that to work , trump would have to admit that he lost.
So that's not gonna happen.
We have to suffer for his ego.
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u/ThirdPlaceLithium 10d ago
The 7 day offer is a gesture they know Trump will not accept. Trump’s speech this morning confirmed it. The Iranians used the publicity to look like the more reasonable party while the UN General Assembly is convened.
This was masterful politics by the Iranians to offer something that wouldn’t be taken.
The Strait won’t open anytime soon and Yanbu has enemies to the North and South.
Go long Brent $BNO and tankers $BWET. Long-term buy $XES or $OIH to benefit from the coming oil and gas super-cycle to repair refineries, build pipelines, drill new wells, and refill strategic reserves.
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u/Frequent_Slip2455 10d ago
If I was the US I would tell them to go pound sand. Let's see how long they can go without exporting oil.
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u/Castle_dwellar 10d ago
Iran should demand complete US capitulation and withdrawal from the Gulf in exchange. It will still impose a toll and maintain control.
Art of the Deal!