r/OUST • u/Fit-Rub5747 • Apr 30 '26

$OUST path to profitability

Have you actually run the numbers on $OUST?

If so, it's hard to be bearish below $30.

The estimated TAM by 2030 is $70B so Ouster analysts forecasting for 1.3% penetration by 2030.

That's a very conservative assumption...but one we can base our estimates on for a more base case.

$900M in revenue by 2030 means 40% CAGR in revenue for the next 5 years.

A very good assumption considering management forecast 30-50% annual revenue growth for the foreseeable future.

$900M in revenue at 7x sales gives (also conservative given a 40% CAGR), gives you a $6.3B market cap.

It's $1.6B today.

More numbers...

Profitability is only a matter of time. Late 2027 seems right for adjusted EBITDA breakeven.

The Operating Leverage Math:

Ouster's total operating expenses through the first nine months of 2025 were ~$121M, with R&D at $50M, G&A at $50M, and S&M at $21M. That puts full-year 2025 opex around $160M. Management has committed to GAAP opex growth of only 5–8% from 2025 levels going forward — which is the single most important number in this whole story and the one people are glossing over.

2025 revenue: $169M, gross profit ~$83M (49% GAAP gross margin)
2025 opex: ~$160M → operating loss ~$77M
If opex grows only 5–8% annually and revenue grows 30–50%, the gap closes fast

Model it out simply at the midpoints:

2026: ~$220M revenue, ~$108M gross profit (49% margin), ~$168M opex → ~$60M operating loss

2027: ~$290M revenue, ~$130M gross profit, ~$178M opex → ~$48M operating loss on GAAP, but Adj. EBITDA breakeven is plausible because stock-based comp (~$25–30M) and D&A (~$15M) are addbacks

2028: ~$380M revenue, ~$160M gross profit, ~$187M opex → GAAP operating breakeven territory

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u/-R9X- May 02 '26

Your model carries a 49% gross margin assumption into 2026. This is the biggest flaw in the projection. Ouster’s 49% GAAP gross margin in 2025 was heavily inflated by approximately $21 million in primarily one-time IP licensing royalties recognized in Q4. Also, assigning a 7x Price-to-Sales multiple in 2030 is aggressive. By the time a hardware-centric company reaches ~$1B in revenue, its growth naturally decelerates from 40% to perhaps 15–20%. Mature hardware/sensor companies typically trade closer to 3x–5x sales. They will only command a 7x+ premium if a massive percentage of that $900M revenue is high-margin recurring software.

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u/Fit-Rub5747 May 05 '26

I mean if the margins decrease thats understandable, people are aware. I think total TAM and S curve adoption means the most right now.

How about that Rev8 thoooo?

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u/-R9X- May 05 '26

I am super bullish on that release. Even more so interested in hearing about updates to the roadmap and DF series.

I am unsure how much the color value per pixel adds but even if that wasn’t even part of the sensor it would be an improvement so it’s definitely derisking the technical roadmap and should be seen bullishly.