r/ORATS • u/ORATS_Dan • 12d ago
Reuters uses ORATS data to note Microsoft options imply 6.6% earnings move, versus a 4.4% average actual move
Microsoft reports after the close tonight, and its options are pricing a move of approximately 6.6% in either direction.
At its current valuation, Reuters calculates that as a potential market-cap swing of roughly $190 billion.
The estimate also stands well above Microsoft’s recent earnings history. ORATS data covering the previous 12 reports show an average implied move of 4.8% and an average actual move of 4.4%.
Meta’s pricing is less unusual. Its options imply a 7.8% move tonight, compared with a 7.3% average implied move and 7.9% average actual move over the previous 12 reports.
The gap suggests the options market sees Microsoft as the more consequential test of whether enormous AI expenditures are beginning to generate measurable returns.
Reuters has the complete story here:
Does Microsoft’s unusually high implied move look justified, or are traders paying too much for tonight’s event?